PythiaFootballBETA
This match is likely to be a closely contested affair, with the away side, AEL, having recently come off a win against Akritas and now facing their opponents at home. The model predicts an away win, with a 47% probability, making it the favourite to win the match. The overall shape of the match suggests a low-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 2.5 goals and the most likely score being 1-1, occurring with a 13.6% probability.
Akritas, at home, has scored an average of 0.86 goals and conceded 1.43 goals against opponents of similar strength, while AEL, away, has scored 1.38 goals and conceded 0.88 goals against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls (87%), Under 3.5 (76%), Over 3.5 cards (74%), and Over 1.5 (73%). The home side has a 24% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 47% chance of losing.
Akritas's win extends their run of mixed results, having suffered two consecutive defeats before this match. The actual result was an away win, which is a fitting conclusion to AEL's recent form, having come off a win and showing resilience in their away games. The model's call, an away win, was correct, aligning with the 47% probability of an AEL victory. The model's selection of an AEL win was the favourite, and it paid off. The model also correctly predicted the score would be low, with the final score being 1-2. The suggested picks largely came in, with Under 3.5 goals hitting at 75.8% probability and Over 1.5 goals hitting at 72.5% probability.
Akritas| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.87 | 0.71 | 1.86 | 1.19 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.67 | 2.67 | 0.57 | 2.29 | 0.75 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.27 | 1.07 | 0.86 | 1.43 | 1.62 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-11pp vs league) | |||||
AEL| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.43 | 1.31 | 1.44 | 1.14 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 0.82 | 2.09 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.31 | 1.19 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
| AEL goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.5% | 11% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| 1 | 7.0% | 14% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
AkritasAELAkritas| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 25.2 | 25.6 | 25.0 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 9.1 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 24.8 | 28.0 | 22.8 |
| vs Similar (28) | 10.0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 26.2 | 22.0 | 30.5 |
| vs Weaker (4) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 50% | 40% | 57% | 22% | 17% | 27% | 67% | 60% | 71% |
| % under line | 50% | 60% | 43% | 78% | 83% | 73% | 33% | 40% | 29% |
AEL| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.5 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 29.9 | 28.4 | 32.2 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 8.7 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 31.5 |
| vs Similar (25) | 6.2 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 31.6 | 30.8 | 32.5 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| % over line | 40% | 44% | 33% | 18% | 15% | 21% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 60% | 56% | 67% | 82% | 85% | 79% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 3.5 | 75.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 74.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 09/05/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/04/23 | A | 2-2 | |
| 02/02/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/10/22 | H | 0-3 |
Akritas| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 21/02/26 | A | 1-3 |
AEL| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 0-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Omonia Nicosia | 36 | 87 | 75% | 2.4 | 88 | 24 | +64 | 3.1 | 89% | 56% | 33% | 7.9 | 27% | 4.7 | 73% | 25.8 | 82% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 2 |  AEK Larnaca | 36 | 69 | 56% | 1.9 | 62 | 33 | +29 | 2.6 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 9.7 | 55% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.4 | 64% | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 |  Apollon Limassol | 36 | 67 | 56% | 1.9 | 52 | 41 | +11 | 2.6 | 72% | 47% | 25% | 8.9 | 31% | 5.1 | 69% | 24.7 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 4 |  Pafos | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 66 | 38 | +28 | 2.9 | 86% | 50% | 28% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.3 | 59% | 25.0 | 71% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 5 |  Apoel Nicosia | 36 | 52 | 42% | 1.4 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 25% | 10.7 | 68% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.2 | 82% | 15 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Aris | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 61 | 45 | +16 | 2.9 | 83% | 58% | 33% | 10.1 | 45% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.1 | 82% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 7 |  Anorthosis | 33 | 45 | 33% | 1.4 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 2.3 | 67% | 30% | 21% | 8.7 | 40% | 4.9 | 80% | 30.1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 8 | AEL | 33 | 44 | 39% | 1.3 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 2.6 | 79% | 55% | 24% | 7.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Omonia Aradippou | 33 | 42 | 36% | 1.3 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 2.2 | 64% | 39% | 18% | 7.3 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.9 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 10 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 2.4 | 64% | 42% | 21% | 9.9 | 44% | 3.9 | 56% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 |  Olympiakos | 33 | 40 | 30% | 1.2 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 2.3 | 70% | 42% | 24% | 6.8 | 12% | 3.8 | 38% | 29.4 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 | Akritas | 33 | 35 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 2.7 | 82% | 55% | 33% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.2 | 92% | 25.2 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 13 |  Ethnikos Achna | 33 | 33 | 30% | 1.0 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 2.6 | 67% | 55% | 30% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.9 | 89% | 28.8 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Enosis | 33 | 5 | 3% | 0.2 | 11 | 80 | -69 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.7 | 56% | 4.3 | 44% | 26.3 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 41% |