Defensive solidity will shape this low-scoring encounter, with Akritas averaging 1.33 goals conceded at home and Iraklis Yerolakkou holding 0.6 away. The model favours a home win, giving Akritas a 44% chance, a 34% draw, and a 23% away win. The expected total is 1.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome with a 28% probability. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.7% chance. Akritas’ recent form, after two straight defeats, shows resilience at home, while Iraklis, coming off a draw, remains solid away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Under 5.5 (98.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.1%), Under 4.5 (95.9%), and Home +2 handicap (93.0%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akritas win
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou win
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akritas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.83
0.73
1.87
1.27
1.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
2.91
0.33
2.67
0.40
3.20
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.21
1.00
1.33
1.70
1.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.03
1.33
1.27
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
1.38
1.15
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
28% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Akritas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.7%
Under 2.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
12.0%
Under 3.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
36.6%
No
63.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.7%
1-0
16.2%
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.1%
2-0
9.9%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
4.7%
0-2
4.2%
Akritas goals ↓
Iraklis Yerolakkou goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
10%
4.2%
1.0%
0.2%
1
16%
14%
4.7%
1.2%
0.2%
2
9.9%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
3
3.7%
2.7%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.1%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akritas goals (down), columns = Iraklis Yerolakkou goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Digenis Morphou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Akritas is 1.26 points better than Iraklis Yerolakkou in terms of average points per game (2.54 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Akritas is 1.57 goals better than Iraklis Yerolakkou in terms of goals scored per game (2.50 vs 0.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
APEA
1.31
Digenis Morphou
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Akritas is 0.30 goals better than Iraklis Yerolakkou in terms of goals conceded per game (0.73 vs 1.03).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akritas or Draw
77.5%
Avg Implied -
44%
34%
23%
covers Akritas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akritas or Iraklis Yerolakkou
66.2%
Avg Implied -
44%
34%
23%
covers Akritas + Iraklis Yerolakkou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Iraklis Yerolakkou
56.3%
Avg Implied -
44%
34%
23%
covers Draw + Iraklis Yerolakkou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akritas over/under 0.5
Over
67.7%
Under
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akritas over/under 1.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akritas over/under 2.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akritas over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5
Over
52.1%
Under
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akritas, so a minus line means Akritas give that many goals of a start and Iraklis Yerolakkou receive them. At -1, Akritas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akritas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Akritas)
Akritas -2
6.2%
Draw -2
12.9%
Iraklis Yerolakkou +2
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Akritas)
Akritas -1
19.1%
Draw -1
24.6%
Iraklis Yerolakkou +1
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Akritas)
Akritas +1
77.5%
Draw +1
15.5%
Iraklis Yerolakkou -1
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Akritas)
Akritas +2
93.0%
Draw +2
5.5%
Iraklis Yerolakkou -2
1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Akritas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.36
0.17
1.00
0.20
1.80
vs Similar (19)
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.67
0.40
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.41
0.59
0.53
0.87
0.29
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.57
0.54
0.77
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
52% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Akritas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akritas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akritas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akritas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akritas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.03
0.27
1.07
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
0.18
1.55
0.17
1.67
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.74
0.33
0.67
1.30
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis Yerolakkou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.52
0.45
0.80
0.40
0.21
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.35
0.85
0.38
0.30
0.30
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.83
0.50
0.50
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
59% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Akritas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akritas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akritas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akritas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis Yerolakkou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Akritas · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
José Romo25%
Ioannis Chatzivasilis22%
Stefanos Miller22%
Alberto Fernández10%
Nearchos Zinonos9%
Thomas Ioannou0%
Pavel Zabelin0%
Christos Hadjipaschalis0%
Kyriakos Antoniou0%
Anthony Limbombe Ekango0%
Emanuel Taffertshofer0%
Braydon Manu0%
Emanuel Vignato0%
Benito0%
Chris Kablan0%
Izuchukwu Jude Anthony0%
Benson Anang0%
Kleton Perntreou0%
Adrián Riera0%
Yair Castro0%
Carlitos0%
Thierno Barry0%
Giorgos Vasiliou0%
Andreas Athanasiou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Chris Kablan67%
Alberto Fernández50%
Adrián Riera50%
Pavel Zabelin33%
Carlitos33%
Emanuel Taffertshofer29%
Nearchos Zinonos27%
Izuchukwu Jude Anthony25%
Giorgos Vasiliou22%
Ioannis Chatzivasilis11%
Stefanos Miller11%
Thomas Ioannou10%
Kyriakos Antoniou10%
Yair Castro9%
Christos Hadjipaschalis0%
Anthony Limbombe Ekango0%
Braydon Manu0%
Emanuel Vignato0%
Benito0%
Benson Anang0%
José Romo0%
Kleton Perntreou0%
Thierno Barry0%
Andreas Athanasiou0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Braydon Manu20%
Anthony Limbombe Ekango17%
Carlitos17%
Alberto Fernández10%
Thomas Ioannou0%
Pavel Zabelin0%
Christos Hadjipaschalis0%
Kyriakos Antoniou0%
Ioannis Chatzivasilis0%
Emanuel Taffertshofer0%
Emanuel Vignato0%
Benito0%
Chris Kablan0%
Izuchukwu Jude Anthony0%
Benson Anang0%
José Romo0%
Kleton Perntreou0%
Adrián Riera0%
Yair Castro0%
Thierno Barry0%
Stefanos Miller0%
Nearchos Zinonos0%
Giorgos Vasiliou0%
Andreas Athanasiou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yair Castro9%
Nearchos Zinonos9%
Thomas Ioannou0%
Pavel Zabelin0%
Christos Hadjipaschalis0%
Kyriakos Antoniou0%
Ioannis Chatzivasilis0%
Anthony Limbombe Ekango0%
Emanuel Taffertshofer0%
Braydon Manu0%
Emanuel Vignato0%
Benito0%
Chris Kablan0%
Izuchukwu Jude Anthony0%
Benson Anang0%
José Romo0%
Kleton Perntreou0%
Alberto Fernández0%
Adrián Riera0%
Carlitos0%
Thierno Barry0%
Stefanos Miller0%
Giorgos Vasiliou0%
Andreas Athanasiou0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Doxa
Enosis
Ayia Napa
Digenis Morphou
Spartakos Kitiou
Ethnikos Achna
Anagennisi Deryneia
Halkanoras
Polemidion
APEA
ASIL Lysi
Ermis
PAEEK
MEAP Nisou