Aktobe Jas is coming off a disappointing recent form, having lost three straight matches, including a 0-2 defeat to Ekibastuz. Meanwhile, Ekibastuz is on a two-game winning run, with a 2-0 victory over Aktobe Jas in their last meeting. The model predicts an away win for Ekibastuz, with a 41% probability of success. Aktobe Jas has a 35% chance of winning at home, while a draw is possible in 24% of cases. The expected total number of goals is 3.4, indicating a high-scoring match. The most likely correct score is a 1-1 draw, with a 10.4% probability. Aktobe Jas has averaged 1 goal scored and 2.86 conceded at home against stronger opponents, while Ekibustz has averaged 2.67 goals scored and 1 conceded away against weaker opponents. The model's selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 86.7% probability of hitting. Other model selections include the away win, with a 41% probability, and the draw, with a 24% probability.
Results analysis
Aktobe Jas's 0-2 loss extends their recent woes, with three straight defeats now recorded. The actual result, an away win by Ekibastuz, was the correct call for the Pythia prediction model, which had them as favourites with a 41% pre-match probability of success. The model's selection, an away win, was correct. The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 86.7%. The other model selection, Ekibastuz to win, also came in, as they secured a 2-0 victory.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe Jas win✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win✓ Hit
40.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
3.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.63
1.00
2.86
1.31
2.44
vs Stronger (27)
0.96
2.70
1.00
2.85
0.93
2.57
vs Similar (3)
3.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
4.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.30
1.67
2.13
0.93
2.47
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (26)
1.15
2.23
1.62
2.08
0.69
2.38
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
2.50
3.00
3.00
5.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.7%
Under 1.5
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.7%
Under 2.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
68.2%
No
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.8%
2-2
7.0%
0-2 ✓
5.2%
1-3
5.1%
0-1
4.8%
2-0
4.3%
Aktobe Jas goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.8%
5.2%
3.1%
1.4%
1
4.3%
10%
8.5%
5.1%
2.3%
2
4.3%
7.8%
7.0%
4.2%
1.9%
3
2.4%
4.3%
3.8%
2.3%
1.0%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe Jas goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Aktobe Jas is 0.41 points worse than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Aktobe Jas is 0.46 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Aktobe Jas is 0.73 goals worse than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (2.88 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.97
0.43
1.07
0.25
0.88
vs Stronger (27)
0.33
1.00
0.38
1.08
0.29
0.93
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.87
1.00
0.60
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.88
0.92
0.62
0.23
1.15
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.67
0.57
1.79
1.06
1.56
vs Stronger (27)
0.63
1.70
0.62
1.77
0.64
1.64
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.43
0.67
1.53
0.60
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
1.35
0.69
1.46
0.46
1.23
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
0.00
2.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2