Aktobe Jas, struggling at home against stronger opposition, have averaged only half a goal per game while conceding 5.5, a pattern that suggests a low-scoring start. Khan Tengri, on a two-game winning streak and having already beaten Astana II 3-0, are poised to exploit the defensive frailties of the home side. The model predicts a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.6 goals, centring on a 3-goal total. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.4% chance. The probabilities for the match outcome are 30% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 47% for an away win, making an away win the favourite. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.7%, Over 2.5 goals at 70.5%, and BTTS Yes at 70.5%, with the latter noted as a miss. The final result will likely see Khan Tengri secure a 3-0 victory.
Results analysis
Aktobe Jas fell 0-3 at home, extending their two-game winning streak with a clean sheet for Khan Tengri. The model’s pre-match favourite was the away win at 47 percent, and it proved correct. The prediction of a 3-goal total was spot on, as the final score matched the most likely 3-goal outcome. The model’s selections performed well: Over 1.5 goals hit at 88.7 percent, Over 2.5 goals hit at 70.5 percent, but BTTS Yes missed despite a 70.5 percent probability. Overall, the model’s call and most of its picks aligned with the match’s reality.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe Jas win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri win✓ Hit
46.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
4.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
4.14
1.00
4.00
1.00
4.25
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
5.25
0.50
5.50
0.50
5.00
vs Similar (3)
1.67
2.67
2.00
1.00
1.50
3.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.38
1.00
1.75
0.25
1.00
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.38
1.00
1.75
0.25
1.00
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
38% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.5%
Under 2.5
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.5%
Under 3.5
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.5%
No
29.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.4%
1-2
8.7%
2-2
7.0%
2-1
6.9%
1-3
5.9%
0-2
5.3%
2-3
4.7%
0-1
4.4%
Aktobe Jas goals ↓
Khan Tengri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
4.4%
5.3%
3.6%
1.8%
1
3.4%
9.4%
8.7%
5.9%
3.0%
2
3.4%
6.9%
7.0%
4.7%
2.4%
3
1.9%
3.8%
3.8%
2.6%
1.3%
4
0.8%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe Jas goals (down), columns = Khan Tengri goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Turan Turkistan
2.46
Zhenys
2.07
Akzhayik
1.93
Kyran
1.79
Sport Academy Kairat
1.25
Khan Tengri
1.25
Arys
1.18
Ekibastuz
1.14
Jas Qyran
1.14
Yassy Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.11
Aktobe Jas
0.82
Akademiya Ontustik
0.75
Astana II
0.68
Aktobe Jas is 0.43 points worse than Khan Tengri in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.25).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Turan Turkistan
3.07
Yelimay Semey
2.71
Zhenys
2.21
Akzhayik
2.21
Sport Academy Kairat
2.07
Kyran
1.96
Jas Qyran
1.79
Ekibastuz
1.68
Yassy Turkistan
1.68
Taraz
1.68
Akademiya Ontustik
1.64
Arys
1.46
Khan Tengri
1.39
Aktobe Jas
1.32
Astana II
1.14
Aktobe Jas is 0.07 goals worse than Khan Tengri in terms of goals scored per game (1.32 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Yelimay Semey
0.61
Turan Turkistan
1.00
Akzhayik
1.04
Zhenys
1.21
Khan Tengri
1.36
Jas Qyran
1.86
Sport Academy Kairat
1.89
Taraz
2.04
Kyran
2.04
Yassy Turkistan
2.07
Ekibastuz
2.21
Arys
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.68
Aktobe Jas
2.75
Astana II
3.04
Aktobe Jas is 1.39 goals worse than Khan Tengri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.75 vs 1.36).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.00
2.17
0.00
2.33
0.00
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
0% (-24pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.25
0.00
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.67
0.33
3.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
2.75
0.50
2.50
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.88
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
1.50
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
62% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →