Aktobe Jas will look to keep the high-scoring trend alive, as the model projects a 3.3 average goal total, with the most likely total being three goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.9% chance. The match is tipped for an away win, with a 45% chance of Khan Tengri taking the victory, a 30% chance for Aktobe Jas, and a 25% chance of a draw. Aktobe Jas, playing at home against a stronger side, averages 0.91 goals scored and 2.91 conceded, while Khan Tengri, on the road against a weaker opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and none conceded. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.2% probability. The recent form shows Aktobe Jas on a two-game winning run after a 1-0 win over Jaiyq, and Khan Tengri also on a two-game winning streak following a 3-0 victory over Astana II.
Results analysis
Aktobe Jas extended their two-game winning run at home, beating Khan Tengri 3-1 in a match that surprised the Pythia model. The pre-match favourite, Away win, had a 45% probability, but the model was wrong. The model’s selection Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.2% chance, hit as the game saw four goals. The most likely scoreline of 1-1, with 10.9% probability, did not materialise, but the 1-2 and 2-1 possibilities, at 9.1% and 7.3% respectively, were also missed. The final result was a home win, contradicting the model’s expectation.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe Jas win✓ Hit
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
2.53
0.86
2.79
1.25
2.31
vs Stronger (24)
0.92
2.58
0.91
2.91
0.92
2.31
vs Similar (6)
1.67
2.33
0.67
2.33
2.67
2.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.87
1.19
1.50
1.14
2.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.67
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (25)
1.20
1.80
1.31
1.54
1.08
2.08
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.2%
Under 1.5
14.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.2%
Under 2.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.2%
Under 3.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.8%
No
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.3%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
6.1%
0-1
5.7%
1-3
5.5%
0-0
4.6%
Aktobe Jas goals ↓
Khan Tengri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.6%
5.7%
6.1%
3.7%
1.7%
1
4.4%
11%
9.1%
5.5%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.3%
6.7%
4.1%
1.9%
3
2.0%
3.6%
3.3%
2.0%
0.9%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe Jas goals (down), columns = Khan Tengri goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kaspiy
2.62
Irtysh
2.35
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.08
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Zhetisay
1.62
Sport Academy Kairat
1.54
Akademiya Ontustik
1.50
Taraz
1.35
AKAS
1.27
Ekibastuz
1.08
SD Family
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.69
Aktobe Jas
0.52
Yassy Turkistan
0.39
Aktobe Jas is 0.17 points worse than Khan Tengri in terms of average points per game (0.52 vs 0.69).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kaspiy
2.85
Irtysh
2.73
Shakhter Karagandy
2.32
Sport Academy Kairat
2.23
Altay (Kazakhstan)
2.04
Zhetisay
1.69
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Taraz
1.65
AKAS
1.62
Ekibastuz
1.38
SD Family
1.27
Aktobe Jas
1.24
Khan Tengri
1.04
Yassy Turkistan
0.70
Aktobe Jas is 0.20 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.04).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Irtysh
0.77
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.92
Kaspiy
1.04
Zhetisay
1.35
Shakhter Karagandy
1.36
Taraz
1.46
AKAS
1.50
Sport Academy Kairat
1.62
Akademiya Ontustik
1.69
Khan Tengri
2.12
Ekibastuz
2.31
Aktobe Jas
2.60
SD Family
2.88
Yassy Turkistan
3.09
Aktobe Jas is 0.48 goals worse than Khan Tengri in terms of goals conceded per game (2.60 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.90
0.36
0.86
0.19
0.94
vs Stronger (24)
0.25
0.92
0.27
1.00
0.23
0.85
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.83
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.69
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
0.56
0.80
0.69
0.77
0.42
0.83
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.63
0.50
1.93
1.06
1.38
vs Stronger (24)
0.67
1.67
0.64
1.91
0.69
1.46
vs Similar (6)
1.33
1.50
0.00
2.00
2.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.10
0.62
0.81
0.71
1.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (25)
0.64
1.00
0.62
0.77
0.67
1.25
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kaspiy
Irtysh
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Shakhter Karagandy
Zhetisay
Sport Academy Kairat
Akademiya Ontustik
Taraz
AKAS
Ekibastuz
SD Family
Yassy Turkistan