Aktobe Jas and Shakhter Karagandy are set to clash in the Kazakhstan: 1. Division, with the visitors Shakhter Karagandy boasting a 61% chance of victory. The model predicts an away win, and given the attacking numbers, this match is projected to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.4 goals.
Aktobe Jas has struggled at home, scoring an average of 0.93 goals while conceding 2.8, particularly when facing stronger opponents. In contrast, Shakhter Karagandy has excelled away from home, scoring 2 goals on average while conceding just 1, especially when facing weaker opponents.
The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 86.6%, suggesting a high-scoring match. The most likely score is 1-2, with a probability of 9.7%. The model's favoured match result is the Away win, with probabilities of 61% for an away win, 18% for a home win, and 21% for a draw.
Results analysis
The win extends Aktobe Jas' recent woes, after 4 straight defeats, and a 1-6 loss to Shakhter Karagandy. Meanwhile, Shakhter Karagandy's 4-game winning run continued with a 1-6 victory over Aktobe Jas. The final score was 1-6 in favour of the away team. The model correctly predicted the away win, which was its selection with a pre-match probability of 61%. The model's selection was correct, as it landed the favoured result. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of Over 1.5 hitting with a pre-match probability of 86.6%.
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ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe Jas winâ Miss
18.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy winâ Hit
60.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.67
0.93
2.80
1.40
2.53
vs Stronger (27)
0.96
2.74
0.93
2.79
1.00
2.69
vs Similar (3)
3.00
2.00
1.00
3.00
4.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
1.30
2.87
1.07
1.67
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.46
1.33
3.08
1.15
1.73
1.55
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.00
3.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.8%
Under 2.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
45.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.7%
1-1
9.4%
0-2
8.2%
1-3
7.3%
0-1
6.4%
0-3
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
2-1
5.1%
Aktobe Jas goals ↓
Shakhter Karagandy goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.1%
6.4%
8.2%
6.2%
3.5%
1
2.9%
9.4%
9.7%
7.3%
4.1%
2
2.2%
5.1%
5.7%
4.3%
2.4%
3
0.9%
2.0%
2.2%
1.7%
1.0%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe Jas goals (down), columns = Shakhter Karagandy goals (across).
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ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Aktobe Jas is 2.12 points worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 3.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Aktobe Jas is 2.18 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 3.43).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Aktobe Jas is 2.59 goals worse than Shakhter Karagandy in terms of goals conceded per game (2.88 vs 0.29).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.03
0.40
1.13
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (27)
0.33
1.07
0.36
1.14
0.31
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
0.93
0.53
0.67
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.92
0.75
1.00
0.62
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.63
0.53
1.67
1.13
1.60
vs Stronger (27)
0.63
1.67
0.57
1.64
0.69
1.69
vs Similar (3)
2.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Shakhter Karagandy) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shakhter Karagandy
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.63
1.93
0.53
1.00
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.54
0.58
2.08
0.54
0.91
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shakhter Karagandy over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2