Aktobe Jas will face Sport Academy Kairat in a high-scoring match, with the expected total goals standing at 3.7. This is driven by the home side's average of 1.08 goals scored at home against stronger opponents and 2.77 conceded, while the away side averages 2.09 goals scored away against weaker opponents and 1.82 conceded. The away side's recent form, coming off a defeat, may not be a significant concern, given their strong away record.
The model predicts a 51% chance of an away win, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 9%. The model's selection is the away win, which is the most likely result. The home side has a 27% chance of winning, with a 22% chance of a draw.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 at 89.3%, Over 2.5 at 71.7%, and BTTS Yes at 70.6%. Aktobe Jas has a 27% chance of winning, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 51% chance of losing.
Results analysis
The win extends Aktobe Jas's run of consecutive defeats to four. Aktobe Jas lost 0-4 to Sport Academy Kairat, with the actual result being an away win. The model correctly picked the away team, Sport Academy Kairat, as its selection, which had a pre-match probability of 51%.
The model's call was correct, and Sport Academy Kairat's away win was the actual result. The model selected Over 1.5, which had a probability of 89.3%, and it hit, as the total goals were indeed over 1.5. The model also selected Over 2.5, with a 71.7% probability, and it hit, as the total goals were over 2.5. However, the model's selection of BTTS Yes, with a 70.6% probability, missed, as both teams did not score.
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe Jas winâ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat winâ Hit
51.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.43
1.07
2.79
1.31
2.12
vs Stronger (26)
1.00
2.46
1.08
2.75
0.93
2.21
vs Similar (4)
2.50
2.25
1.00
3.00
4.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
3% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.50
3.07
1.36
1.44
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
2.09
1.59
2.73
1.36
1.45
1.82
vs Weaker (8)
2.50
1.25
4.33
1.33
1.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.7%
Under 2.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.9%
Under 3.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.6%
No
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.0%
1-2
8.8%
2-2
6.9%
1-3
6.4%
2-1
6.3%
0-2
5.7%
2-3
5.0%
0-1
4.5%
Aktobe Jas goals ↓
Sport Academy Kairat goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
4.5%
5.7%
4.1%
2.2%
1
3.0%
9.0%
8.8%
6.4%
3.5%
2
2.9%
6.3%
6.9%
5.0%
2.7%
3
1.5%
3.3%
3.5%
2.6%
1.4%
4
0.6%
1.3%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe Jas goals (down), columns = Sport Academy Kairat goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.00
Taraz
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Jaiyq
1.33
Astana II
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Arys
0.71
Aktobe Jas
0.67
Khan Tengri
0.67
Tobol 2
0.50
Aktobe Jas is 1.33 points worse than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 2.00).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.33
Sport Academy Kairat
2.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.83
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.67
Aktobe Jas
1.33
Jaiyq
1.17
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Taraz
0.83
Khan Tengri
0.83
Astana II
0.83
Arys
0.71
Aktobe Jas is 1.10 goals worse than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals scored per game (1.33 vs 2.43).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.33
Sport Academy Kairat
0.43
Taraz
0.83
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Akademiya Ontustik
1.29
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Khan Tengri
1.67
Arys
1.71
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.00
Tobol 2
2.33
Astana II
2.50
Aktobe Jas
3.50
Aktobe Jas is 3.07 goals worse than Sport Academy Kairat in terms of goals conceded per game (3.50 vs 0.43).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.80
0.50
0.86
0.25
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
0.35
0.85
0.42
0.92
0.29
0.79
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.14
0.64
0.81
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.00
0.73
1.18
0.64
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.67
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.63
0.57
1.93
1.06
1.38
vs Stronger (26)
0.65
1.62
0.67
1.83
0.64
1.43
vs Similar (4)
2.00
1.75
0.00
2.50
4.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Sport Academy Kairat) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sport Academy Kairat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.83
1.93
0.71
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.09
0.86
1.55
0.73
0.64
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.75
3.33
0.67
0.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sport Academy Kairat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
BTTS Yes
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Turan Turkistan
Akademiya Ontustik
Kaspij Aktau 2
Taraz
Ekibastuz
Jaiyq
Yelimay Semey 2
Astana II
Arys
Khan Tengri
Tobol 2