Aktobe Jas enter the match after a win but have struggled at home against stronger opponents, scoring only 0.86 goals per game while conceding 3.07. Turan Turkistan, fresh from a defeat, have shown resilience away, winning three of their last five matches and scoring more than 2.5 goals on average. The model therefore names an away win as the most likely outcome, assigning it a 78 % probability, while the home win sits at 7 % and a draw at 15 %. The expected total is 3.5 goals, with the single most likely scoreline 0-2 for Turan, carrying a 11.7 % chance. The model’s selections reflect this imbalance: Home under 3.5 goals99.3 %, Away +2 handicap98.0 %, Under 7.597.5 %, Home under 2.5 goals96.1 %, Under 6.593.8 %, Away over 0.5 goals93.4 %, Draw or Away93.0 %, and Away +1 handicap93.0 %. These figures illustrate why Turan Turkistan are favoured, with the venue disadvantage for Aktobe Jas and the opponent’s recent away form tipping the scales.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe Jas win
6.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan win
80.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.73
0.93
3.00
1.60
2.47
vs Stronger (25)
0.92
2.96
0.92
3.23
0.92
2.67
vs Similar (5)
3.00
1.60
1.00
1.50
4.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.17
1.07
2.13
1.20
2.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
3.88
1.00
4.25
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.57
1.00
1.40
1.55
1.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.7%
Under 1.5
11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.9%
Under 2.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.9%
Under 3.5
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
10.8%
0-3
10.5%
1-2
8.2%
1-3
8.0%
0-4
7.6%
0-1
6.9%
1-1
6.2%
1-4
5.8%
Aktobe Jas goals ↓
Turan Turkistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
6.9%
11%
10%
7.6%
1
1.4%
6.2%
8.2%
8.0%
5.8%
2
0.7%
2.2%
3.1%
3.0%
2.2%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.8%
0.6%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe Jas goals (down), columns = Turan Turkistan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Aktobe Jas is 1.41 points worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Aktobe Jas is 1.04 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals scored per game (1.25 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Aktobe Jas is 1.73 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals conceded per game (2.88 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aktobe Jas or Draw
19.7%
Avg Implied -
6%
13%
80%
covers Aktobe Jas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas or Turan Turkistan
86.6%
Avg Implied -
6%
13%
80%
covers Aktobe Jas + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Turan Turkistan
93.6%
Avg Implied -
6%
13%
80%
covers Draw + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5
Over
53.4%
Under
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5
Over
4.2%
Under
95.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 3.5
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5
Over
94.5%
Under
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5
Over
78.6%
Under
21.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5
Over
55.5%
Under
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 3.5
Over
33.2%
Under
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aktobe Jas, so a minus line means Aktobe Jas give that many goals of a start and Turan Turkistan receive them. At -1, Aktobe Jas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aktobe Jas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aktobe Jas)
Aktobe Jas -2
0.4%
Draw -2
1.5%
Turan Turkistan +2
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aktobe Jas)
Aktobe Jas -1
1.9%
Draw -1
4.5%
Turan Turkistan +1
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aktobe Jas)
Aktobe Jas +1
19.7%
Draw +1
18.7%
Turan Turkistan -1
61.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aktobe Jas)
Aktobe Jas +2
38.4%
Draw +2
21.3%
Turan Turkistan -2
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.07
0.33
1.20
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (25)
0.28
1.12
0.31
1.31
0.25
0.92
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.88
0.50
1.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.9%
Under 1.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.7%
Under 2.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
64.0%
Under
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.67
0.60
1.80
1.33
1.53
vs Stronger (25)
0.64
1.84
0.62
1.92
0.67
1.75
vs Similar (5)
2.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
4.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.95
0.50
1.00
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.4%
Under 0.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.1%
Under 1.5
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
28.1%
Under 2.5
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.5%
Under
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
70.3%
Under
29.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
41.0%
Under
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Akademiya Ontustik
Sport Academy Kairat
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2