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Aktobe vs Arys Result & Analysis

Date: 24/10/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 3-2
Aktobe
Aktobe
Vs
58%
27%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Aktobe win✓ Hit
57.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arys win✗ Miss
15.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-432W20W31W10W10W11D10W13L40W01LA·SHA02/07A·ARY12/07H·ORD21/08H·FK 26/08H·KYZ05/09A·MAQ10/09H·TAR14/09A·AKZ02/10H·KAS08/10A·FK 15/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.481.002.000.551.001.42
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.621.123.250.750.001.50
vs Weaker (15)1.400.931.290.431.501.38
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L13L21W13L20W22D11D00D01LH·AKT12/07A·MAQ20/08A·KYZ27/08A·ORD04/09H·KAI11/09A·ATY15/09H·FC 02/10A·AKZ05/10A·SHA09/10H·FK 14/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.170.671.001.091.36
vs Stronger (11)1.181.550.831.671.601.40
vs Similar (12)0.580.830.500.330.671.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %39% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%27%11%020%127%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.0%
Under 2.5
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
21.3%
Under 3.5
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.9%
No
57.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.2%
2-0
12.5%
1-1
12.4%
0-0
10.6%
2-1
9.2%
3-0
6.8%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.0%
Aktobe goals ↓
Arys goals →
01234
011%5.8%2.5%0.6%0.1%
114%12%4.1%1.0%0.2%
212%9.2%3.4%0.8%0.2%
36.8%5.0%1.8%0.4%0.1%
42.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe goals (down), columns = Arys goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Astana
2.08
Aktobe
2.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.81
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Ordabasy
1.46
FK Aksu
1.38
Maqtaaral
1.19
Kaspiy
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.15
Shakhter Karagandy
1.15
Atyrau
1.12
Taraz
1.08
Arys
1.08
Akzhayik
0.96
Aktobe is 0.92 points better than Arys in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.08).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.50
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.77
Aktobe
1.65
Ordabasy
1.38
Kairat Almaty
1.31
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.27
FK Aksu
1.23
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Atyrau
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.08
Taraz
1.04
Kaspiy
1.00
Arys
0.96
Akzhayik
0.73
Aktobe is 0.69 goals better than Arys in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 0.96).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.81
Aktobe
1.08
Taraz
1.12
Akzhayik
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.35
Arys
1.35
Kairat Almaty
1.38
FK Aksu
1.42
Maqtaaral
1.46
Ordabasy
1.50
Atyrau
1.50
Kaspiy
1.62
Aktobe is 0.27 goals better than Arys in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 1.35).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

AktobeAktobe

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

ArysArys

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AktobeAktobe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (8)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (15)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Arys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (11)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (12)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
9.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
FC Astana
5.5
Kairat Almaty
4.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AktobeAktobe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W21W10W00D10W00D01L20W00DA·SHA02/07A·ARY12/07H·ORD21/08H·FK 26/08H·KYZ05/09A·MAQ10/09H·TAR14/09A·AKZ02/10H·KAS08/10A·FK 15/10
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.430.730.360.170.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.381.500.500.000.25
vs Weaker (15)0.270.470.290.290.250.62
Clean sheet %61% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D20W02L10W00D11D00D00DH·AKT12/07A·MAQ20/08A·KYZ27/08A·ORD04/09H·KAI11/09A·ATY15/09H·FC 02/10A·AKZ05/10A·SHA09/10H·FK 14/10
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.520.350.170.330.910.36
vs Stronger (11)0.730.550.000.671.600.40
vs Similar (12)0.330.170.330.000.330.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AktobeAktobe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W10W00D10W01L10W12L20W01LA·SHA02/07A·ARY12/07H·ORD21/08H·FK 26/08H·KYZ05/09A·MAQ10/09H·TAR14/09A·AKZ02/10H·KAS08/10A·FK 15/10
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.040.571.270.180.830.92
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.880.751.750.250.001.25
vs Weaker (15)1.130.471.000.141.250.75
Clean sheet %61% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Arys) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ArysArys

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L02L13L01L11D10W22D00D00D01LH·AKT12/07A·MAQ20/08A·KYZ27/08A·ORD04/09H·KAI11/09A·ATY15/09H·FC 02/10A·AKZ05/10A·SHA09/10H·FK 14/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.350.830.500.670.181.00
vs Stronger (11)0.451.000.831.000.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.250.670.170.330.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arys over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
KAS (4)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
AKT wins
0
Draws
0
ARY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aktobe vs Arys · H/A from AKT
DateH/AGameScore
12/07/22AArys Vs AKT0-2

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs AKT1-0
08/10/22HAKT Vs Kaspiy4-0
02/10/22AAkzhayik Vs AKT3-1
14/09/22HAKT Vs Taraz1-0
10/09/22AMaqtaaral Vs AKT1-1
05/09/22HAKT Vs Kyzyl-Zhar1-0
26/08/22HAKT Vs FK Aksu1-0
21/08/22HAKT Vs Ordabasy3-1
12/07/22AArys Vs AKT0-2
02/07/22AShakhter Karagandy Vs AKT2-3

ArysArys

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/10/22HARY Vs FK Aksu0-1
09/10/22AShakhter Karagandy Vs ARY0-0
05/10/22AAkzhayik Vs ARY1-1
02/10/22HARY Vs FC Astana2-2
15/09/22AAtyrau Vs ARY0-2
11/09/22HARY Vs Kairat Almaty1-3
04/09/22AOrdabasy Vs ARY1-2
27/08/22AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ARY3-1
20/08/22AMaqtaaral Vs ARY2-0
12/07/22HARY Vs Aktobe0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 7 Wins / 1 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLWL1.96
HomeWWWWW2.82
AwayWWDLL1.17
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%91%33%
AVG goals2.482.552.42
Over 1.5 %74%64%83%
Over 2.5 %43%55%33%
Over 3.5 %22%27%17%
Scored1.482.001.00
Conceded1.000.551.42
BTTS48%55%42%
Clean Sheet30%45%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Arys
Arys
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDDL1.09
HomeDLLDL0.83
AwayLWWDD1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %22%8%36%
AVG goals2.041.672.45
Over 1.5 %65%50%82%
Over 2.5 %30%25%36%
Over 3.5 %22%25%18%
Scored0.870.671.09
Conceded1.171.001.36
BTTS35%33%36%
Clean Sheet39%42%36%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC AstanaFC Astana2654
62%
2.1
6521+44
3.3
81%
65%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3252.50.8
-
2AktobeAktobe2652
62%
2.0
4328+15
2.7
77%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.1
-
3FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2647
54%
1.8
4633+13
3.0
85%
65%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3241.81.3
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2642
46%
1.6
3436-2
2.7
81%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
4241.31.4
-
5OrdabasyOrdabasy2638
42%
1.5
3639-3
2.9
77%
65%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3341.41.5
-
6FK AksuFK Aksu2636
42%
1.4
3237-5
2.7
69%
50%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
7MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2631
31%
1.2
2838-10
2.5
69%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
8KaspiyKaspiy2631
35%
1.2
2642-16
2.6
69%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.01.6
-
9Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2630
27%
1.2
3332+1
2.5
73%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.31.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2630
31%
1.2
3135-4
2.5
65%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
11AtyrauAtyrau2629
27%
1.1
3039-9
2.7
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.5
-
12TarazTaraz2628
23%
1.1
2729-2
2.2
62%
35%
15%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.1
-
13ArysArys2628
23%
1.1
2535-10
2.3
69%
38%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
14AkzhayikAkzhayik2625
23%
1.0
1931-12
1.9
54%
27%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.2
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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