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Aktobe vs Atyrau Result & Analysis

Date: 16/04/2023
Time: 11:00
Final 4-0
Aktobe
Aktobe
Vs
60%
23%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Aktobe win✓ Hit
60.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Atyrau win✗ Miss
17.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-540W01L32W22D41W10W51W41W13L11DH·KAS08/10A·FK 15/10H·ARY24/10A·ORD29/10H·KAI06/11A·ZHE04/03H·OKZ09/03A·FC 14/03H·KYZ02/04A·ORD09/04
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.072.330.871.331.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)2.421.083.670.831.171.33
vs Weaker (18)1.441.061.440.891.441.22
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L13L15L22D12L22D21W10W04L01LH·KAI09/10A·KYZ15/10A·FC 23/10H·SHA30/10A·FK 06/11A·KAI05/03H·KAI10/03A·MAQ15/03H·OKZ02/04A·KYZ08/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.171.571.291.641.061.50
vs Stronger (11)1.361.641.201.401.501.83
vs Similar (19)1.051.531.331.780.801.30
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%6%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
59.7%
Under 2.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
37.3%
Under 3.5
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
8.4%
3-1
6.8%
3-0
6.6%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.1%
Aktobe goals ↓
Atyrau goals →
01234
05.5%3.7%2.4%0.8%0.2%
18.4%11%5.0%1.7%0.4%
29.6%9.9%5.1%1.8%0.5%
36.6%6.8%3.5%1.2%0.3%
43.4%3.5%1.8%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe goals (down), columns = Atyrau goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Ordabasy
2.23
FC Astana
2.04
Aktobe
1.92
Kairat Almaty
1.69
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Kaisar
1.38
Atyrau
1.31
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.31
Zhetysu
1.12
Maqtaaral
1.12
Shakhter Karagandy
1.12
Okzhetpes
1.04
Kaspiy
0.77
FK Aksu
0.69
Aktobe is 0.62 points better than Atyrau in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.31).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
1.85
Aktobe
1.69
Kairat Almaty
1.65
FC Astana
1.38
Shakhter Karagandy
1.19
Kaisar
1.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.12
Kaspiy
1.08
Zhetysu
1.04
Okzhetpes
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Atyrau
0.92
FK Aksu
0.88
Aktobe is 0.77 goals better than Atyrau in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 0.92).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.81
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.88
Aktobe
0.88
FC Astana
0.92
Atyrau
1.04
Kaisar
1.15
Maqtaaral
1.23
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.23
Kairat Almaty
1.27
Shakhter Karagandy
1.38
Okzhetpes
1.42
Zhetysu
1.46
Kaspiy
1.69
FK Aksu
1.73
Aktobe is 0.15 goals better than Atyrau in terms of goals conceded per game (0.88 vs 1.04).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

AktobeAktobe

For 5.5 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

1306752137H·OKZA·ZHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 3.3 · Total 6.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

90312336459A·FC H·OKZA·ZHE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AtyrauAtyrau

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AktobeAktobe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (31)10.013.07.00.60.30.8---
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (13)13.013.0-0.70.80.6---
vs Weaker (18)7.0-7.00.50.01.0---
% over line50%100%0%10%7%12%---
% under line50%0%100%90%93%88%---
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (31)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (11)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (20)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
10.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.0
FC Astana
8.7
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Zhetysu
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
7.0
Aktobe
6.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
6.0
Ordabasy
5.0
Okzhetpes
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.5
FC Astana
4.5
Shakhter Karagandy
3.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
41.3%
Under 9.5
58.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.1%
Under 3.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AktobeAktobe

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D21W20W31W00D31W20W01L00DH·KAS08/10A·FK 15/10H·ARY24/10A·ORD29/10H·KAI06/11A·ZHE04/03H·OKZ09/03A·FC 14/03H·KYZ02/04A·ORD09/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.471.070.530.400.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.330.422.000.670.670.17
vs Weaker (18)0.330.500.440.440.220.56
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L12L03L12L01L12L21W10W01L00DH·KAI09/10A·KYZ15/10A·FC 23/10H·SHA30/10A·FK 06/11A·KAI05/03H·KAI10/03A·MAQ15/03H·OKZ02/04A·KYZ08/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.770.500.640.620.88
vs Stronger (11)0.640.820.200.401.001.17
vs Similar (19)0.530.740.670.780.400.70
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AktobeAktobe

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L11D02L10W10W20W21W12L11DH·KAS08/10A·FK 15/10H·ARY24/10A·ORD29/10H·KAI06/11A·ZHE04/03H·OKZ09/03A·FC 14/03H·KYZ02/04A·ORD09/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.601.270.330.930.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (12)1.080.671.670.170.501.17
vs Weaker (18)1.110.561.000.441.220.67
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Atyrau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AtyrauAtyrau

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D01L12L10W11D10W00D00D03L01LH·KAI09/10A·KYZ15/10A·FC 23/10H·SHA30/10A·FK 06/11A·KAI05/03H·KAI10/03A·MAQ15/03H·OKZ02/04A·KYZ08/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.800.791.000.440.62
vs Stronger (11)0.730.821.001.000.500.67
vs Similar (19)0.530.790.671.000.400.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atyrau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards89.0%--------
Over 1.582.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners80.3%--------
Over 3.5 cards76.1%--------
Under 10.5 corners70.6%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Aktobe's squad is €5m more valuable than Atyrau's (€10m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Aktobe's attack is €3m more valuable than Atyrau's (€5m vs €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Aktobe's midfield is €1m more valuable than Atyrau's (€2m vs €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
Aktobe's defence is €1m more valuable than Atyrau's (€3m vs €2m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
AKT wins
0
Draws
0
ATY wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aktobe vs Atyrau · H/A from AKT
DateH/AGameScore
19/06/22AAtyrau Vs AKT0-2
11/03/22HAKT Vs Atyrau2-1

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/23AOrdabasy Vs AKT1-1
02/04/23HAKT Vs Kyzyl-Zhar1-3
14/03/23AFC Astana Vs AKT1-4
09/03/23HAKT Vs Okzhetpes5-1
04/03/23AZhetysu Vs AKT0-1
06/11/22HAKT Vs Kairat Almaty4-1
29/10/22AOrdabasy Vs AKT2-2
24/10/22HAKT Vs Arys3-2
15/10/22AFK Tobol Kostanay Vs AKT1-0
08/10/22HAKT Vs Kaspiy4-0

AtyrauAtyrau

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/04/23AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ATY1-0
02/04/23HATY Vs Okzhetpes0-4
15/03/23AMaqtaaral Vs ATY0-1
10/03/23HATY Vs Kaisar2-1
05/03/23AKairat Almaty Vs ATY2-2
06/11/22AFK Aksu Vs ATY2-1
30/10/22HATY Vs Shakhter Karagandy2-2
23/10/22AFC Astana Vs ATY5-1
15/10/22AKyzyl-Zhar Vs ATY3-1
09/10/22HATY Vs Kairat Almaty1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 2 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLD2.00
HomeWWWWL2.67
AwayLDWWD1.38
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %61%87%38%
AVG goals2.873.202.56
Over 1.5 %77%73%81%
Over 2.5 %52%67%38%
Over 3.5 %35%47%25%
Scored1.772.331.25
Conceded1.100.871.31
BTTS58%67%50%
Clean Sheet26%33%19%
Corners10.0013.007.00
Cards6.005.006.50
Atyrau
Atyrau
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.16
HomeLLDWL1.33
AwayLLDWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %29%33%25%
AVG goals2.652.732.56
Over 1.5 %74%80%69%
Over 2.5 %55%60%50%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored1.131.201.06
Conceded1.521.531.50
BTTS55%60%50%
Clean Sheet26%13%38%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy2658
69%
2.2
4821+27
2.7
73%
54%
31%
5.0
0%
4.4
60%
-
0%
10
3341.80.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana2653
62%
2.0
3624+12
2.3
65%
42%
15%
8.5
50%
2.9
38%
-
0%
10
3251.40.9
-
3AktobeAktobe2650
50%
1.9
4423+21
2.6
73%
46%
31%
10.0
50%
5.9
88%
-
0%
10
5231.70.9
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty2644
46%
1.7
4333+10
2.9
77%
69%
38%
-
0%
3.0
50%
-
0%
10
4241.71.3
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar2639
42%
1.5
2523+2
1.8
50%
31%
8%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
4
2111.00.9
-
6KaisarKaisar2636
38%
1.4
3130+1
2.3
65%
42%
27%
-
0%
5.0
50%
-
0%
4
2121.21.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay2634
35%
1.3
3032-2
2.4
73%
46%
15%
-
0%
3.2
50%
-
0%
9
3241.21.2
-
8AtyrauAtyrau2634
31%
1.3
2427-3
2.0
54%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2120.91.0
-
9MaqtaaralMaqtaaral2629
31%
1.1
2932-3
2.3
73%
42%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
-
10Shakhter KaragandyShakhter Karagandy2629
27%
1.1
3136-5
2.6
81%
54%
23%
11.0
100%
2.3
17%
-
0%
0
0001.21.4
-
11ZhetysuZhetysu2629
31%
1.1
2738-11
2.5
77%
50%
15%
6.0
0%
6.1
100%
-
0%
3
1021.01.5
-
12OkzhetpesOkzhetpes2627
27%
1.0
2637-11
2.4
62%
42%
19%
13.0
100%
2.5
25%
-
0%
5
2111.01.4
-
13KaspiyKaspiy2620
15%
0.8
2844-16
2.8
77%
54%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.11.7
-
14FK AksuFK Aksu2618
19%
0.7
2345-22
2.6
77%
54%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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