Aktobe’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 0.89 goals per game against opponents of similar strength, while their attack averages 1.44. FK Tobol Kostanay, on the road, has struggled, scoring only 0.83 and conceding 1.5 against comparable teams. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 2.1 goals. The most likely outcome is a 1-0 win for Aktobe, with a 15.9% chance of that exact scoreline. The probabilities for the match result are 51% home win, 30% draw, and 18% away win, making a home win the favoured result. Suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls (87.8%), Under 11.5 corners (86.6%), Under 3.5 (84.3% miss), Under 10.5 corners (78.6%), Over 2.5 cards (77.4%), Under 5.5 cards (77.2%), and Over 21.5 fouls (77.1%). Aktobe are coming off a defeat to Irtysh, while Tobol Kostanay also lost their last match, adding a defensive edge to this encounter.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Aktobe, failed to deliver a home win, with the model’s 51% call proving wrong. The final score was 3-4, giving FK Tobol Kostanay the away victory. Aktobe’s recent form, a 1-W-D-L-W run, had them coming off a defeat, while Tobol’s 1-W-W-L-L streak also ended in loss before this match. The model’s only other selection, Under 3.5 goals, missed as the game produced seven goals. The predicted most likely score of 1-0 and the 2-goal total were not achieved, and the 84.3% chance of Under 3.5 was wrong. Overall, the prediction fell short on every front.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe win✗ Miss
51.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay win✓ Hit
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.83
1.47
0.73
1.47
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.59
1.06
1.44
0.89
1.75
1.25
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.54
1.50
0.50
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.10
1.14
0.86
0.88
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.93
1.38
0.50
0.83
1.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
1.07
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.7%
Under 1.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.4%
Under 2.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.2%
No
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.9%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
13.4%
2-0
11.7%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.7%
3-0
5.3%
1-2
4.3%
Aktobe goals ↓
FK Tobol Kostanay goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
7.7%
3.2%
0.8%
0.1%
1
16%
13%
4.3%
1.0%
0.2%
2
12%
8.3%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
5.3%
3.8%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.8%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe goals (down), columns = FK Tobol Kostanay goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
1.96
FC Astana
1.92
Aktobe
1.79
Ordabasy
1.75
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.62
Yelimay Semey
1.54
Atyrau
1.46
Kaisar
1.42
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Zhenys
1.00
Zhetysu
0.96
Turan Turkistan
0.83
Shakhter Karagandy
0.42
Aktobe is 0.17 points better than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.62).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
1.62
Kairat Almaty
1.62
Aktobe
1.62
Ordabasy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.46
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.38
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.21
Atyrau
1.17
Kaisar
1.17
Zhenys
0.75
Zhetysu
0.71
Turan Turkistan
0.67
Shakhter Karagandy
0.50
Aktobe is 0.25 goals better than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals scored per game (1.62 vs 1.38).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Astana
0.79
Atyrau
0.83
Kairat Almaty
0.88
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.08
Aktobe
1.08
Kaisar
1.21
Yelimay Semey
1.33
Zhenys
1.33
Zhetysu
1.38
Turan Turkistan
1.62
Shakhter Karagandy
1.88
Aktobe is 0.12 goals worse than FK Tobol Kostanay in terms of goals conceded per game (1.08 vs 0.96).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aktobe
For 4.2 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 14.7 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FK Tobol Kostanay
For 4.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 17.0 · Against 15.5 · Total 32.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
10.7
8.3
1.4
1.5
1.3
27.0
26.0
29.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
10.0
10.7
9.0
1.8
2.3
1.4
27.0
26.0
29.0
vs Weaker (24)
7.0
-
7.0
0.9
0.6
1.2
-
-
-
% over line
50%
67%
33%
20%
21%
19%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
33%
67%
80%
79%
81%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
11.0
8.2
1.2
1.1
1.4
31.1
29.5
33.3
vs Stronger (2)
11.0
14.0
8.0
4.5
4.0
5.0
28.0
29.0
27.0
vs Similar (25)
9.2
10.0
8.3
1.7
1.5
1.9
32.4
29.7
36.5
vs Weaker (23)
-
-
-
0.5
0.4
0.6
-
-
-
% over line
38%
75%
0%
20%
19%
21%
86%
75%
100%
% under line
62%
25%
100%
80%
81%
79%
14%
25%
0%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Shakhter Karagandy
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.4
FC Astana
8.9
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.4
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
3.8
FC Astana
3.5
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Shakhter Karagandy
2.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.9
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
25.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.1%
Under 9.5
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.3%
Under 3.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.1%
Under 21.5
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.53
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
0.67
0.56
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.23
1.00
0.33
0.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.71
0.21
0.44
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.50
0.88
0.12
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
0.36
0.60
0.40
0.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.67
0.27
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.53
0.78
0.33
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (13)
0.69
0.31
0.50
0.17
0.86
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (FK Tobol Kostanay) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FK Tobol Kostanay
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.67
0.43
0.64
0.44
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.50
0.38
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (14)
0.43
0.71
0.20
0.80
0.56
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FK Tobol Kostanay over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
Aktobe and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Aktobe's attack is €2m more valuable than FK Tobol Kostanay's (€5m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Aktobe and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
Aktobe and FK Tobol Kostanay have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kairat Almaty
FC Astana
Ordabasy
Yelimay Semey
Atyrau
Kaisar
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Zhetysu
Turan Turkistan
Shakhter Karagandy
FK Aksu