Kairat Almaty are tipped to win this Kazakhstan Premier League clash, with a 42% chance of triumph against Aktobe’s 29% home-side win probability and a 29% draw likelihood. The match is expected to see about 2.5 goals, with the most probable total being two. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14% chance. Aktobe, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded, while Kairat Almaty, on the road, averages 0.75 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 5.5 (95.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.9%), Under 4.5 (89.4%) and Away +2 handicap (88.2%). Aktobe’s recent form shows a loss-heavy run, while Kairat Almaty come off a win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe win
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty win
41.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.43
1.29
1.07
1.62
1.75
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.50
1.12
1.12
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.79
1.21
1.40
1.00
2.00
1.33
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.43
1.27
1.40
1.13
1.47
vs Stronger (12)
0.58
2.42
0.20
2.60
0.86
2.29
vs Similar (11)
0.91
0.73
1.00
0.86
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
2.71
0.86
3.67
0.67
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.1%
Under 1.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
45.1%
Under 2.5
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.8%
Under 3.5
76.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
0-1
10.2%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.0%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
7.0%
2-0
5.1%
Aktobe goals ↓
Kairat Almaty goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
10%
7.9%
3.6%
1.2%
1
8.0%
14%
8.7%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.1%
7.0%
4.8%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.9%
2.6%
1.8%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe goals (down), columns = Kairat Almaty goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Aktobe is 1.33 points worse than Kairat Almaty in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 3.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Aktobe is 0.67 goals worse than Kairat Almaty in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Aktobe is 0.92 goals worse than Kairat Almaty in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aktobe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 2.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kairat Almaty
For 2.8 · Against 6.5 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 13.0 · Total 23.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
-
-
-
0.2
0.3
0.1
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
9.6
11.1
1.3
1.0
1.7
26.1
23.6
28.6
vs Stronger (15)
10.2
8.8
11.1
3.5
2.0
4.8
26.8
24.2
28.6
vs Similar (21)
11.5
11.5
-
0.6
1.1
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
vs Weaker (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
71%
57%
86%
16%
11%
22%
71%
57%
86%
% under line
29%
43%
14%
84%
89%
78%
29%
43%
14%
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aktobe or Draw
58.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers Aktobe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe or Kairat Almaty
70.6%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers Aktobe + Kairat Almaty
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kairat Almaty
71.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
29%
42%
covers Draw + Kairat Almaty
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aktobe over/under 0.5
Over
66.9%
Under
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5
Over
30.3%
Under
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5
Over
74.7%
Under
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5
Over
39.9%
Under
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
Under
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aktobe, so a minus line means Aktobe give that many goals of a start and Kairat Almaty receive them. At -1, Aktobe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aktobe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aktobe)
Aktobe -2
3.6%
Draw -2
8.2%
Kairat Almaty +2
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aktobe)
Aktobe -1
11.8%
Draw -1
17.0%
Kairat Almaty +1
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aktobe)
Aktobe +1
58.3%
Draw +1
21.5%
Kairat Almaty -1
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aktobe)
Aktobe +2
79.8%
Draw +2
12.8%
Kairat Almaty -2
7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
0.50
0.29
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (14)
0.50
0.64
0.25
0.38
0.83
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.00
0.36
0.80
0.20
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.67
0.73
0.60
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.08
1.17
0.00
1.20
0.14
1.14
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.36
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
0.29
2.33
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
0.79
0.79
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
4.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.88
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.79
0.86
0.60
0.80
0.89
0.89
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kairat Almaty) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kairat Almaty
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.53
0.80
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.25
0.20
1.40
0.71
1.14
vs Similar (11)
0.27
0.36
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.57
1.33
0.67
0.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kairat Almaty over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Kairat Almaty · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Olzhas Baibek20%
Ofri Arad14%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Valeriy Gromyko0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dastan Satpaev71%
Ofri Arad29%
Jorginho27%
Adilet Sadybekov20%
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy18%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Aleksandr Martynovich12%
Dan Glazer12%
Egor Sorokin9%
Erkin Tapalov9%
Ricardinho9%
Luís Mata0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Aleksandr Shirobokov25%
Giorgi Zaria17%
Valeriy Gromyko9%
Ricardinho9%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Luís Mata0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Jorginho0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Edmilson0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Dastan Satpaev0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valeriy Gromyko18%
Dastan Satpaev14%
Luís Mata11%
Edmilson11%
Jorginho9%
Aleksandr Martynovich0%
Giorgi Zaria0%
Egor Sorokin0%
Dan Glazer0%
Ofri Arad0%
Erkin Tapalov0%
Jug Stanojev0%
Aleksandr Shirobokov0%
Temirlan Anarbekov0%
Ricardinho0%
Adilet Sadybekov0%
Damir Kasabulat0%
Aleksandr Mrynskiy0%
Olzhas Baibek0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty have a similar squad value (both €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Aktobe's attack is €1m more valuable than Kairat Almaty's (€5m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Aktobe and Kairat Almaty have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →