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Aktobe vs Okzhetpes Result & Analysis

Date: 25/07/2026
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Aktobe
Aktobe
Vs
52%
26%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pythia gives Aktobe a 52% win probability against Okzhetpes in the Kazakhstan: Premier League on 2026-07-25, with 26% for the draw and 22% for Okzhetpes. The model estimates around 2.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (25%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (12.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (78%).

Results analysis

Aktobe finished 2-1 against Okzhetpes (Home win). Pythia had modelled a 52% home win, 26% draw and 22% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (78%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aktobe win✓ Hit
51.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Okzhetpes win✗ Miss
22.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L12L21W32W01L12L10W35L22D42WH·ZHE03/08A·YEL10/08H·OKZ17/08H·ZHE24/08A·KAI14/09A·ULY20/09H·KYZ27/09A·FC 19/10H·ORD26/10A·ALT19/07
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.271.400.931.601.60
vs Stronger (2)1.002.502.001.000.004.00
vs Similar (13)1.001.460.861.001.172.00
vs Weaker (15)2.000.931.860.862.121.00
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OkzhetpesOkzhetpes

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-710W00D11D12L12L01L13L12L17L43WH·ULY19/07A·ZHE25/07H·YEL02/08H·ZHE09/08A·AKT17/08H·KAI31/08A·KYZ13/09H·FC 28/09A·ORD19/10H·TUR26/10
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.801.532.071.331.531.73
vs Stronger (2)1.500.501.001.002.000.00
vs Similar (13)1.002.381.001.831.002.86
vs Weaker (15)2.530.933.001.002.000.86
Clean sheet %27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.0%
Under 1.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.1%
Under 2.5
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.8%
Under 3.5
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
1-0
9.4%
2-0
9.1%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
Aktobe goals ↓
Okzhetpes goals →
01234
07.2%5.4%3.5%1.2%0.3%
19.4%12%6.0%2.1%0.6%
29.1%9.7%5.2%1.8%0.5%
35.3%5.6%3.0%1.1%0.3%
42.3%2.4%1.3%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe goals (down), columns = Okzhetpes goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Aktobe is 0.42 points better than Okzhetpes in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 1.23).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Irtysh
1.33
Kaspiy
1.32
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.27
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Aktobe is 0.15 goals better than Okzhetpes in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.35).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Irtysh
1.39
Kaspiy
1.41
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.46
Zhetysu
1.58
Ulytau
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Atyrau
1.73
Okzhetpes
1.73
Aktobe is 0.62 goals better than Okzhetpes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.73).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

AktobeAktobe

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 2.0

🟨 Cards

303131H·LEGA·LEG
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

OkzhetpesOkzhetpes

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AktobeAktobe

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.10.10.0---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (23)---0.20.30.1---
vs Weaker (25)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Okzhetpes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

OkzhetpesOkzhetpes

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (22)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (26)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.3
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.0
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.3
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.578.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FTK (21)
€11m
ORD (22)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (22)
€8m
FA (19)
€8m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
FTK (6)
€4m
KA (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FTK (5)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (10)
€4m
FA (10)
€4m
FTK (10)
€4m
KA (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Aktobe vs Okzhetpes · H/A from AKT
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25HAKT Vs Okzhetpes2-1
17/05/25AOkzhetpes Vs AKT1-3
22/10/23AOkzhetpes Vs AKT1-1
09/03/23HAKT Vs Okzhetpes5-1

AktobeAktobe

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/07/26AAltay (Kazakhstan) Vs AKT2-4
26/10/25HAKT Vs Ordabasy2-2
19/10/25AFC Astana Vs AKT5-3
27/09/25HAKT Vs Kyzyl-Zhar1-0
20/09/25AUlytau Vs AKT2-1
14/09/25AKairat Almaty Vs AKT1-0
24/08/25HAKT Vs Zhetysu3-2
17/08/25HAKT Vs Okzhetpes2-1
10/08/25AYelimay Semey Vs AKT2-1
03/08/25HAKT Vs Zhenys0-2

OkzhetpesOkzhetpes

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/10/25HOKZ Vs Turan Turkistan4-3
19/10/25AOrdabasy Vs OKZ7-1
28/09/25HOKZ Vs FC Astana1-2
13/09/25AKyzyl-Zhar Vs OKZ3-1
31/08/25HOKZ Vs Kairat Almaty0-1
17/08/25AAktobe Vs OKZ2-1
09/08/25HOKZ Vs Zhetysu1-2
02/08/25HOKZ Vs Yelimay Semey1-1
25/07/25AZhenys Vs OKZ0-0
19/07/25HOKZ Vs Ulytau1-0

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Aktobe
Aktobe
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDW1.62
HomeLWWWD1.84
AwayLLLLW1.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%56%40%
AVG goals2.682.402.96
Over 1.5 %72%64%80%
Over 2.5 %52%44%60%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.461.441.48
Conceded1.220.961.48
BTTS50%44%56%
Clean Sheet30%40%20%
Corners---
Cards2.003.001.00
Okzhetpes
Okzhetpes
Kazakhstan: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.80
HomeDLLLW2.04
AwayLDLLL1.56
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %56%64%48%
AVG goals2.963.202.72
Over 1.5 %72%72%72%
Over 2.5 %50%56%44%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.822.201.44
Conceded1.141.001.28
BTTS46%56%36%
Clean Sheet38%32%44%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1OrdabasyOrdabasy512
80%
2.4
134+9
3.4
100%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3342.60.8
-
2FC AstanaFC Astana410
75%
2.5
93+6
3.0
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
1242.20.8
-
3AktobeAktobe510
60%
2.0
108+2
3.6
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5232.01.6
-
4Kairat AlmatyKairat Almaty39
100%
3.0
83+5
3.7
100%
100%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.71.0
-
5Kyzyl-ZharKyzyl-Zhar48
50%
2.0
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
6OkzhetpesOkzhetpes46
50%
1.5
85+3
3.2
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.2
-
7FK Tobol KostanayFK Tobol Kostanay36
67%
2.0
32+1
1.7
67%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
11
4341.00.7
-
8KaspiyKaspiy56
20%
1.2
99+0
3.6
100%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
9Yelimay SemeyYelimay Semey56
20%
1.2
77+0
2.8
80%
60%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.4
-
10IrtyshIrtysh46
50%
1.5
68-2
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
-
11ZhenysZhenys34
33%
1.3
64+2
3.3
67%
67%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.3
-
12KaisarKaisar32
0%
0.7
34-1
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
13AtyrauAtyrau52
0%
0.4
38-5
2.2
80%
20%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
14UlytauUlytau41
0%
0.2
38-5
2.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.0
-
15ZhetysuZhetysu41
0%
0.2
311-8
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
16Altay (Kazakhstan)Altay (Kazakhstan)51
0%
0.2
717-10
4.8
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.43.4
-
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →

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