Aktobe’s recent run of LWDLW and a narrow 1-2 loss to Irtysh leave them eager to rebound, while Ulytau’s WLDLL streak, capped by a 3-0 win over Zhetysu, shows they can strike on the road. The model’s high 66% home win probability and 23% draw rate make a home victory the clear favourite, driven by Aktobe’s strong 2.14 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded at home against weaker opposition, versus Ulytau’s 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded away against stronger teams. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, with the most likely scoreline 2-0 for Aktobe at 13.6%. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 78.7%, Over 2.5 cards at 76.0%, Over 1.5 at 74.2% (missed) and Under 3.5 at 73.7% (hit). The model assigns 66% to a home win, 23% to a draw and 12% to an away win.
Results analysis
Aktobe’s 1-0 win over Ulytau continued their recent form, extending a run that included a loss to Irtysh. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 66%, and it proved correct. The predicted most likely score of 2-0 was missed, but the actual 1-0 result still fell within the model’s 2-goal range. For the over/under selections, the Over 1.5 call at 74.2% missed, while the Under 3.5 at 73.7% hit. Overall, the model delivered a solid forecast: the favourite and the under-3.5 pick were accurate, while the over-1.5 and the exact 2-0 score were off.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aktobe win✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ulytau win✗ Miss
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aktobe
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.00
1.77
0.92
1.24
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.47
1.33
1.50
0.67
1.44
vs Weaker (15)
2.00
0.53
2.14
0.43
1.88
0.62
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.03
2.29
0.93
2.00
1.12
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.20
1.50
2.00
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (23)
2.22
0.87
2.09
0.82
2.33
0.92
vs Weaker (2)
4.50
0.00
6.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.2%
Under 1.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.1%
Under 2.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.3%
Under 3.5
73.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.6%
1-0 ✓
13.3%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
8.7%
0-0
8.4%
3-1
5.9%
4-0
4.1%
Aktobe goals ↓
Ulytau goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
4.1%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
2
14%
9.3%
3.2%
0.7%
0.1%
3
8.7%
5.9%
2.0%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.1%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe goals (down), columns = Ulytau goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
2.27
FC Astana
2.19
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.08
Yelimay Semey
1.85
Aktobe
1.65
Zhenys
1.38
Ordabasy
1.35
Okzhetpes
1.23
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.04
Zhetysu
0.92
Ulytau
0.88
Kaisar
0.85
Atyrau
0.73
Turan Turkistan
0.62
Aktobe is 0.77 points better than Ulytau in terms of average points per game (1.65 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Astana
2.54
Kairat Almaty
2.04
Yelimay Semey
1.81
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.73
Aktobe
1.50
Ordabasy
1.42
Zhenys
1.42
Okzhetpes
1.35
Turan Turkistan
0.96
Kyzyl-Zhar
0.96
Kaisar
0.92
Atyrau
0.85
Zhetysu
0.81
Ulytau
0.77
Aktobe is 0.73 goals better than Ulytau in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.77).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kairat Almaty
0.73
FK Tobol Kostanay
0.96
Ordabasy
1.08
Aktobe
1.12
FC Astana
1.15
Zhenys
1.15
Yelimay Semey
1.19
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.23
Ulytau
1.58
Zhetysu
1.58
Kaisar
1.62
Okzhetpes
1.73
Atyrau
1.73
Turan Turkistan
2.23
Aktobe is 0.46 goals better than Ulytau in terms of goals conceded per game (1.12 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aktobe
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Ulytau
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aktobe
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
11.0
8.0
0.7
1.0
0.5
26.5
24.0
29.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
9.5
11.0
8.0
1.0
1.4
0.7
26.5
24.0
29.0
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.5
0.6
0.4
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
10%
12%
8%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
90%
88%
92%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (38)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
11.0
Aktobe
9.5
FK Tobol Kostanay
9.3
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
Aktobe
5.7
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
FC Astana
3.9
Kairat Almaty
3.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
30.1
Ordabasy
30.0
Aktobe
27.0
FC Astana
23.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.4%
Under 3.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.37
0.85
0.31
0.53
0.41
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.60
0.50
0.67
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.13
1.14
0.00
0.62
0.25
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
1.07
0.50
0.69
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.48
1.00
0.45
0.83
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.63
0.92
0.62
0.71
0.65
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.47
0.87
0.83
0.83
0.22
0.89
vs Weaker (15)
1.13
0.40
1.00
0.43
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ulytau) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ulytau
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.50
1.21
0.43
1.31
0.56
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
1.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (23)
1.30
0.39
1.09
0.36
1.50
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ulytau over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Aktobe's squad is €7m more valuable than Ulytau's (€10m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
Aktobe's attack is €4m more valuable than Ulytau's (€5m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Aktobe's midfield is €1m more valuable than Ulytau's (€2m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Aktobe's defence is €2m more valuable than Ulytau's (€3m vs €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kairat Almaty
FC Astana
FK Tobol Kostanay
Yelimay Semey
Zhenys
Ordabasy
Okzhetpes
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhetysu
Kaisar
Atyrau
Turan Turkistan