This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.80
2.06
0.71
2.23
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
1.75
1.25
2.00
0.75
1.50
1.75
vs Weaker (22)
2.27
0.64
2.08
0.69
2.56
0.56
Clean sheet %
43% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.0%
Under 1.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
60.5%
Under 2.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.2%
Under 3.5
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.7%
No
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.8%
2-0 â
8.2%
1-0
7.4%
3-1
6.3%
1-2
6.1%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.4%
Aktobe goals ↓
Yelimay Semey goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
4.2%
3.1%
1.3%
0.4%
1
7.4%
11%
6.1%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.9%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.3%
6.3%
3.8%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.5%
3.0%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aktobe goals (down), columns = Yelimay Semey goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
FK Tobol Kostanay
2.25
Yelimay Semey
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.25
Taraz
2.25
SD Family
2.25
Aktobe
2.00
Ordabasy
2.00
Jas Qyran
2.00
Atyrau
1.80
Irtysh
1.75
AKAS
1.67
Kairat Almaty
1.50
FC Astana
1.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.50
Ulytau
1.50
FK Aksu
1.50
Zhetisay
1.33
Okzhetpes
0.67
Kaspiy
0.50
Ekibastuz
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Kyran
0.50
Khan Tengri
0.33
Turan Turkistan
0.33
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Shakhter Karagandy
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
Aktobe is 0.25 points worse than Yelimay Semey in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.25).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Atyrau
2.80
FK Aksu
2.50
Kairat Almaty
2.00
Zhetisay
1.67
Jas Qyran
1.67
Taraz
1.50
SD Family
1.50
Kyran
1.50
AKAS
1.33
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.25
Yelimay Semey
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Aktobe
1.20
Ordabasy
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Kaspiy
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Ekibastuz
1.00
Shakhter Karagandy
1.00
Irtysh
0.75
FC Astana
0.50
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.50
Ulytau
0.50
Yassy Turkistan
0.50
Zhetysu
0.00
Zhenys
0.00
Kaisar
0.00
Turan Turkistan
0.00
Akzhayik
0.00
Maqtaaral
0.00
Aktobe is 0.05 goals worse than Yelimay Semey in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.25).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.00
FC Astana
0.50
Irtysh
0.50
Akademiya Ontustik
0.50
Aktobe
0.60
Taraz
0.75
Atyrau
0.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.00
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.00
Zhetysu
1.00
Zhenys
1.00
Ulytau
1.00
Yelimay Semey
1.00
AKAS
1.00
Zhetisay
1.00
Akzhayik
1.00
Jas Qyran
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.33
Turan Turkistan
1.33
Kairat Almaty
1.50
Ekibastuz
1.50
Maqtaaral
1.50
Khan Tengri
1.67
SD Family
1.75
Kaspiy
2.00
Shakhter Karagandy
2.00
Yassy Turkistan
2.00
FK Aksu
2.50
Kaisar
3.00
Kyran
3.00
Aktobe is 0.40 goals better than Yelimay Semey in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.00).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aktobe or Drawâ Hit
77.6%
Avg Implied -
53%
24%
22%
covers Aktobe + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe or Yelimay Semeyâ Hit
75.9%
Avg Implied -
53%
24%
22%
covers Aktobe + Yelimay Semey
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Yelimay Semeyâ Miss
46.5%
Avg Implied -
53%
24%
22%
covers Draw + Yelimay Semey
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aktobe over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
85.5%
Under
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
30.5%
Under
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
13.1%
Under
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
69.8%
Under
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âïļ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aktobe, so a minus line means Aktobe give that many goals of a start and Yelimay Semey receive them. At -1, Aktobe must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aktobe win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aktobe)Actual: Draw
Aktobe -2
15.1%
Draw -2
16.6%
Yelimay Semey +2
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aktobe)Actual: Aktobe
Aktobe -1
31.7%
Draw -1
21.8%
Yelimay Semey +1
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aktobe)Actual: Aktobe
Aktobe +1
77.6%
Draw +1
13.1%
Yelimay Semey -1
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aktobe)Actual: Aktobe
Aktobe +2
90.7%
Draw +2
6.4%
Yelimay Semey -2
2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aktobe
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.80
0.47
0.47
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.25
1.14
0.29
0.33
0.22
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.33
0.65
0.29
1.08
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.75
0.75
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (22)
0.82
0.18
0.62
0.23
1.11
0.11
Clean sheet %
70% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aktobe
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.37
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.00
0.43
0.88
0.38
1.17
0.50
vs Weaker (16)
0.69
0.31
0.43
0.29
0.89
0.33
Clean sheet %
67% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Yelimay Semey) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yelimay Semey
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.47
1.41
0.41
1.15
0.54
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
0.88
0.50
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (22)
1.45
0.45
1.46
0.46
1.44
0.44
Clean sheet %
60% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aktobe over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yelimay Semey over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 6.5
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Draw
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home +1 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home or Away
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Aktobe's squad is €2m more valuable than Yelimay Semey's (€10m vs €8m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Aktobe's attack is €1m more valuable than Yelimay Semey's (€5m vs €4m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Aktobe's midfield is €2m more valuable than Yelimay Semey's (€2m vs €0m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Aktobe and Yelimay Semey have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kairat Almaty
FC Astana
Ordabasy
FK Tobol Kostanay
Atyrau
Kaisar
Kyzyl-Zhar
Zhenys
Zhetysu
Turan Turkistan
Shakhter Karagandy
FK Aksu