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Alashkert vs Ararat Result & Analysis

Date: 03/08/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 3-0
Alashkert
Alashkert
Vs
67%
20%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Alashkert, the clear favourite, is expected to triumph at home due to their strong recent form, including a convincing 3-0 win over Ararat in their last encounter. The model rates Alashkert highly, predicting a 67% chance of a home win, which is significantly higher than Ararat's 13% chance of an away win. A draw is seen as a less likely outcome at 20%.

The expected total number of goals is 3.1, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score is 2-0, with a probability of 10.9%.

Alashkert have been scoring an average of 2.17 goals at home, while conceding just 0.17 goals. In contrast, Ararat have been struggling to score away from home, averaging just 1 goal, while conceding an average of 2.33 goals.

The model's selection is the home win, with the most likely score being 2-0. However, the model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 82.7%, and a slight edge of 7%. The home win percentage is 67%, the draw percentage is 20%, and the away win percentage is 13%.

Results analysis

The win extends Alashkert's run, as they secured a 3-0 victory over Ararat. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 67%. The final scoreline matched the most likely outcome, with the model suggesting a 22% chance of exactly 2 goals being scored. The suggested picks largely came in, with the model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hitting at 82.7%. The model also correctly predicted the home team's strong form, as Alashkert came off a win and had a 2-0 win against Ararat in their previous meeting.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alashkert win✓ Hit
66.7%
Avg Implied 65.4% · @ 1.38
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.42
Betano
1.42
Dafabet
1.41
Superbet
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Draw✗ Miss
20.4%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.25
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Betfair
4.40
10Bet
4.40
Pinnacle
4.39
Ararat win✗ Miss
12.9%
Avg Implied 13.3% · @ 6.78
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.50
BetVictor
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.20
William Hil
7.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D32W20W31W11D22D31W10W20W03LA·ARA06/04A·ARA11/04H·ARA14/04A·FC 19/04H·FC 25/04A·BKM02/05H·GAN09/05A·VAN16/05H·SHI26/05A·CFR30/07
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.430.931.470.531.401.33
vs Stronger (11)0.911.181.000.670.801.80
vs Similar (9)1.440.671.500.751.400.60
vs Weaker (10)2.000.902.000.202.001.60
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-812L12L23L02L10W04L20W01L38L11DA·GAN21/03H·VAN04/04H·ALA11/04A·ALA14/04H·PYU18/04A·ARA25/04A·SHI01/05H·FC 10/05A·FC 19/05H·BKM26/05
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.832.600.711.710.943.38
vs Stronger (18)0.723.220.752.000.704.20
vs Similar (12)1.001.670.671.331.332.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%012%122%222%317%411%510%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.7%
@ 1.22+7.4%
Under 1.5
17.3%
@ 3.72-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.10
888Sport
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.68
1xBet
3.68
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
60.3%
@ 1.74+7.6%
Under 2.5
39.7%
@ 1.95-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Under
SBO
2.03
888Sport
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.0%
@ 2.87+6.0%
Under 3.5
62.0%
@ 1.35-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.88
888Sport
2.88
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Under
Betfair
1.40
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.6%
@ 1.94+6.7%
No
46.4%
@ 1.72-6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
2.00
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
888Sport
1.95
No
Betfair
1.83
William Hil
1.75
888Sport
1.75
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.73

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.9%@ 5.96+3.7%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.38+4.0%
1-1
9.7%@ 7.83+4.2%
1-0
8.9%@ 5.96+1.8%
3-0 ✓
8.1%@ 8.51+3.1%
3-1
7.3%@ 10.90+3.3%
0-0
5.3%@ 10.84+1.3%
4-0
4.5%@ 15.20+1.7%
Alashkert goals ↓
Ararat goals →
01234
05.3%3.1%1.8%0.5%0.1%
18.9%9.7%3.9%1.2%0.3%
211%9.8%4.4%1.3%0.3%
38.1%7.3%3.2%1.0%0.2%
44.5%4.0%1.8%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alashkert goals (down), columns = Ararat goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Alashkert is 1.57 points better than Ararat in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 0.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Alashkert is 1.73 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 0.60).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Alashkert is 2.07 goals better than Ararat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 2.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AlashkertAlashkert

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D31W10W11D00D10W20W00D20W02LA·ARA06/04A·ARA11/04H·ARA14/04A·FC 19/04H·FC 25/04A·BKM02/05H·GAN09/05A·VAN16/05H·SHI26/05A·CFR30/07
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.470.870.270.730.67
vs Stronger (11)0.450.640.670.170.201.20
vs Similar (9)0.670.441.000.500.400.40
vs Weaker (10)1.300.301.000.201.600.40
Clean sheet %63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L11D13L01L00D02L00D00D13L00DA·GAN21/03H·VAN04/04H·ALA11/04A·ALA14/04H·PYU18/04A·ARA25/04A·SHI01/05H·FC 10/05A·FC 19/05H·BKM26/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.331.000.210.710.441.25
vs Stronger (18)0.331.170.250.880.401.40
vs Similar (12)0.330.750.170.500.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AlashkertAlashkert

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W20W11D12L11D10W00D01LA·ARA06/04A·ARA11/04H·ARA14/04A·FC 19/04H·FC 25/04A·BKM02/05H·GAN09/05A·VAN16/05H·SHI26/05A·CFR30/07
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.470.600.270.670.67
vs Stronger (11)0.450.550.330.500.600.60
vs Similar (9)0.780.220.500.251.000.20
vs Weaker (10)0.700.601.000.000.401.20
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Ararat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AraratArarat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D01L10W01L10W02L20W01L25L11DA·GAN21/03H·VAN04/04H·ALA11/04A·ALA14/04H·PYU18/04A·ARA25/04A·SHI01/05H·FC 10/05A·FC 19/05H·BKM26/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.501.600.501.000.502.12
vs Stronger (18)0.392.060.501.120.302.80
vs Similar (12)0.670.920.500.830.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ararat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.7%1.22
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.24
Betfair
1.22
888Sport
1.22
1xBet
1.20
+7.4%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Alashkert's squad is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€5m vs €3m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Alashkert's attack is €2m more valuable than Ararat's (€3m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Alashkert and Ararat have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Alashkert and Ararat have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
ALA wins
0
Draws
3
ARA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Alashkert vs Ararat · H/A from ALA
DateH/AGameScore
14/04/26HALA Vs Ararat2-0
11/04/26AArarat Vs ALA2-3
16/08/25HALA Vs Ararat3-0
18/04/25AArarat Vs ALA3-2
08/03/25HALA Vs Ararat0-1
03/08/24AArarat Vs ALA2-0
20/05/24AArarat Vs ALA1-3
30/03/24HALA Vs Ararat2-1

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/07/26ACFR 1907 Cluj Vs ALA3-0
26/05/26HALA Vs Shirak2-0
16/05/26AVan Vs ALA0-1
09/05/26HALA Vs Gandzasar3-1
02/05/26ABKMA Vs ALA2-2
25/04/26HALA Vs FC Noah1-1
19/04/26AFC Urartu Vs ALA1-3
14/04/26HALA Vs Ararat2-0
11/04/26AArarat Vs ALA2-3
06/04/26AArarat-Armenia Vs ALA1-1

AraratArarat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/05/26HARA Vs BKMA1-1
19/05/26AFC Noah Vs ARA8-3
10/05/26HARA Vs FC Urartu0-1
01/05/26AShirak Vs ARA0-2
25/04/26AArarat-Armenia Vs ARA4-0
18/04/26HARA Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-0
14/04/26AAlashkert Vs ARA2-0
11/04/26HARA Vs Alashkert2-3
04/04/26HARA Vs Van1-2
21/03/26AGandzasar Vs ARA2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWL1.40
HomeLWDWW1.64
AwayWWDWL1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%48%32%
AVG goals2.482.322.64
Over 1.5 %74%76%72%
Over 2.5 %40%28%52%
Over 3.5 %26%20%32%
Scored1.141.241.04
Conceded1.341.081.60
BTTS40%32%48%
Clean Sheet28%44%12%
Corners---
Cards---
Ararat
Ararat
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLLD0.58
HomeLLWLD0.62
AwayLLLWL0.54
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%12%15%
AVG goals3.182.503.81
Over 1.5 %82%71%92%
Over 2.5 %58%46%69%
Over 3.5 %34%21%46%
Scored0.860.830.88
Conceded2.321.672.92
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FC NoahFC Noah515
100%
3.0
133+10
3.2
60%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5342.60.6
-
2AlashkertAlashkert613
67%
2.2
142+12
2.7
83%
67%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3122.30.3
-
3SardarapatSardarapat410
75%
2.5
104+6
3.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.51.0
-
4Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan410
75%
2.5
93+6
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.20.8
-
5Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia510
60%
2.0
107+3
3.4
100%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.01.4
-
6FC UrartuFC Urartu58
40%
1.6
85+3
2.6
80%
60%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.61.0
-
7ShirakShirak57
40%
1.4
85+3
2.6
40%
40%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.0
-
8BKMABKMA54
20%
0.8
46-2
2.0
60%
60%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.2
-
9GandzasarGandzasar53
20%
0.6
612-6
3.6
80%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.22.4
-
10AraratArarat53
20%
0.6
312-9
3.0
100%
80%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0120.62.4
-
11SyunikSyunik51
0%
0.2
313-10
3.2
100%
80%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1000.62.6
-
12VanVan61
0%
0.2
218-16
3.3
100%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.33.0
-
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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