Alashkert’s defensive solidity is the story here, having allowed only 0.29 goals per game at home against weaker opposition while still scoring 1.71. BKMA, meanwhile, averages 1.5 conceded and 0.5 scored on the road to stronger sides, a stark contrast that suggests a tight, low-scoring affair. The model projects 2.1 goals on average, with the most likely total of two goals at 28%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is a 1-0 home win, with a 17.3% chance. Home win odds stand at 57%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 14%. The model’s selection, Under 3.5, carries an 84.3% probability. This match is expected to finish 1-0 in favour of Alashkert, a result that aligns with the model’s pick for a home victory.
Results analysis
Alashkert’s run of a draw, win, loss, win, win was halted by a shock 1-2 defeat to BKMA, who came off a 3-0 victory. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 57% probability, but the model was wrong as the away side claimed the win. The model’s other selection, Under 3.5 goals, proved correct with an 84.3% chance, and the match saw only three goals, matching the most likely total of two. The final result, an away win, undercut the 57% home-win expectation and confirmed the upset.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alashkert win✗ Miss
57.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BKMA win✓ Hit
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.93
1.67
0.40
1.47
1.47
vs Stronger (10)
1.50
1.60
2.00
0.60
1.00
2.60
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
2.00
0.57
1.71
0.29
2.29
0.86
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.43
1.20
1.73
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (16)
0.81
1.81
1.12
2.12
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (14)
1.21
1.00
1.29
1.29
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.5%
Under 1.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
34.4%
Under 2.5
65.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.7%
Under 3.5
84.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.2%
No
63.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
17.3%
0-0
13.7%
2-0
13.5%
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
6.6%
0-1
6.5%
3-1
4.0%
Alashkert goals ↓
BKMA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
6.5%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
17%
12%
3.4%
0.7%
0.1%
2
14%
8.2%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
3
6.6%
4.0%
1.2%
0.2%
0.0%
4
2.4%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alashkert goals (down), columns = BKMA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
Alashkert is 0.94 points better than BKMA in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
Alashkert is 0.61 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
Alashkert is 0.44 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.80
0.80
0.40
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.17
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (14)
0.71
0.21
0.43
0.14
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.33
0.53
vs Stronger (16)
0.44
0.69
0.62
0.50
0.25
0.88
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.43
0.29
0.71
0.43
0.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
1.07
0.20
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
0.80
1.20
0.20
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.67
vs Weaker (14)
1.29
0.36
1.29
0.14
1.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.73
1.13
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
1.12
0.50
1.62
0.25
0.62
vs Similar (14)
0.86
0.57
1.00
0.57
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
Alashkert's squad is €3m more valuable than BKMA's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
Alashkert's attack is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
Alashkert and BKMA have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
Alashkert's defence is €1m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Urartu
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
Van
Ararat
Shirak
FC Noah
Lernayin Artsakh