Alashkert is expected to emerge victorious in this Armenia: Premier League match against BKMA, with a predicted probability of 57% for a home win. The match is likely to be a closely contested, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.6 goals. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a probability of 12.3%.
Alashkert has been performing well at home, scoring an average of 2.11 goals and conceding just 0.22 goals per match, particularly against teams of similar strength. BKMA, on the other hand, has struggled to score away from home, averaging 1.33 goals and conceding 1.67 goals per match, again particularly against teams of similar strength.
The Pythia prediction model selects the Under 3.5 goals as its top pick, with a probability of 74.2%, and also suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 73.8%. The home win percentage is 57%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 17%.
Results analysis
The win extends Alashkert's run to 2 games, having defeated BKMA 3-0. The final scoreline was a convincing one, with the home side claiming a comprehensive victory. The model got it right, predicting a home win with a pre-match probability of 57%. This selection was correct, as Alashkert's recent form, having beaten BKMA 3-0 in their last meeting, was a significant factor in the model's decision. The model's call on the Under 3.5 total goals also came in, with a probability of 74.2% and a result of hit. Additionally, the model's selection of Over 1.5 total goals hit, with a probability of 73.8%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alashkert win✓ Hit
57.2%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.24
Edge
-15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.27
Dafabet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.08
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
5.40
Superbet
5.30
Pinnacle
5.30
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
BKMA win✗ Miss
17.0%
Avg Implied 9.1% · @ 10.00
Edge
+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
12.60
Marathonbet
12.00
William Hil
12.00
BetVictor
11.00
10Bet
10.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.87
1.56
0.50
1.50
1.29
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.18
1.00
0.67
0.80
1.80
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.67
1.50
0.75
1.40
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
2.30
0.70
2.17
0.17
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.47
1.12
1.12
1.14
1.86
vs Stronger (16)
1.06
2.00
1.22
1.78
0.86
2.29
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.86
1.00
0.29
1.43
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
@ 1.18-4.2%
Under 1.5
26.2%
@ 4.18+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
Under
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.4%
@ 1.62-9.3%
Under 2.5
52.6%
@ 2.12+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Marathonbet
1.64
1xBet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.8%
@ 2.50-10.5%
Under 3.5
74.2%
@ 1.43+10.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.70
Pinnacle
2.64
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.56
10Bet
2.50
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.0%
@ 2.07+4.1%
No
52.0%
@ 1.62-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Superbet
2.07
Betfair
2.05
10Bet
2.00
No
Betfair
1.73
William Hil
1.70
10Bet
1.67
Superbet
1.67
1xBet
1.56
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 9.27+7.7%
1-0
12.1%@ 6.12+5.1%
2-0
11.4%@ 5.47+3.6%
2-1
9.6%@ 8.06+4.3%
0-0
8.8%@ 12.52+5.4%
3-0 ✓
6.6%@ 6.89+0.4%
3-1
5.5%@ 10.17+1.3%
0-1
5.3%@ 22.64+3.5%
Alashkert goals ↓
BKMA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.8%
5.3%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
1
12%
12%
4.7%
1.3%
0.3%
2
11%
9.6%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
3
6.6%
5.5%
2.3%
0.7%
0.1%
4
2.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alashkert goals (down), columns = BKMA goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Sardarapat
2.50
Pyunik Yerevan
2.20
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.33
Van
0.17
Alashkert is 1.37 points better than BKMA in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
Pyunik Yerevan
1.80
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Syunik
0.50
Van
0.33
Alashkert is 1.53 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
Pyunik Yerevan
0.60
FC Noah
0.60
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Syunik
2.17
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Van
3.00
Alashkert is 0.87 goals better than BKMA in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.81
0.25
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.64
0.67
0.17
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.20
0.83
0.17
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.31
0.50
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.81
0.22
0.78
0.57
0.86
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.29
0.43
0.14
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.43
0.75
0.25
0.71
0.64
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.55
0.33
0.50
0.60
0.60
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.22
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (BKMA) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BKMA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.81
0.62
0.50
1.21
vs Stronger (16)
0.69
1.19
1.00
1.00
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.57
0.57
0.14
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BKMA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
74.2%
1.43
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
BetVictor
1.40
+10.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Betfair
1.20
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.16
-4.2%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Alashkert's squad is €3m more valuable than BKMA's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Alashkert's attack is €2m more valuable than BKMA's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Alashkert and BKMA have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Alashkert's defence is €1m more valuable than BKMA's (€2m vs €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Pyunik Yerevan
Sardarapat
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van