Alashkert’s defensive solidity is the story to open on, having conceded only 0.8 goals per game at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Pyunik Yerevan’s away defence has yielded 1.14. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.0 goals and a 28 % chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 14.7 % probability. The model’s pick is a home win, with a 41 % chance for Alashkert, a 33 % chance for a draw and a 26 % chance for Pyunik Yerevan. Alashkert are coming off a win and have scored 1.6 goals per game at home, whereas Pyunik Yerevan have scored 1.0 away. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.5 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9 %), Under 5.5 (98.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 4.5 (94.6 %), Away under 2.5 goals (94.4 %) and Home +2 handicap (91.1 %).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alashkert win
45.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan win
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
1.87
0.40
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (11)
1.82
0.64
2.17
0.50
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
2.30
0.70
2.17
0.17
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.67
1.87
0.60
1.07
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.91
1.18
1.00
1.00
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.79
0.37
2.44
0.33
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
61.9%
Under 1.5
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
33.5%
Under 2.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.1%
Under 3.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
14.8%
0-0
14.2%
1-1
14.2%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.1%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
5.1%
3-0
4.2%
Alashkert goals ↓
Pyunik Yerevan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.1%
4.1%
1.1%
0.2%
1
15%
14%
5.1%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
8.0%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
3
4.2%
3.3%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alashkert goals (down), columns = Pyunik Yerevan goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Alashkert is 0.33 points worse than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Alashkert is 0.08 goals better than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 2.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Alashkert is 0.42 goals better than Pyunik Yerevan in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 0.75).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alashkert or Draw
77.5%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Alashkert + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert or Pyunik Yerevan
68.0%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Alashkert + Pyunik Yerevan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Pyunik Yerevan
54.5%
Avg Implied -
45%
32%
23%
covers Draw + Pyunik Yerevan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alashkert over/under 0.5
Over
71.2%
Under
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
Under
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
Under
96.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5
Over
19.1%
Under
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5
Over
4.7%
Under
95.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 3.5
Over
0.9%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Alashkert, so a minus line means Alashkert give that many goals of a start and Pyunik Yerevan receive them. At -1, Alashkert must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alashkert win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alashkert)
Alashkert -2
7.4%
Draw -2
13.8%
Pyunik Yerevan +2
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Alashkert)
Alashkert -1
21.2%
Draw -1
24.3%
Pyunik Yerevan +1
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Alashkert)
Alashkert +1
77.5%
Draw +1
15.1%
Pyunik Yerevan -1
7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Alashkert)
Alashkert +2
92.6%
Draw +2
5.7%
Pyunik Yerevan -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.33
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.45
1.17
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.20
0.83
0.17
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.23
1.13
0.20
0.27
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.45
0.67
0.33
0.20
0.60
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.11
1.44
0.11
0.30
0.10
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
1.07
0.13
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.18
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pyunik Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.73
0.40
0.80
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.45
0.73
0.33
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Weaker (19)
0.95
0.26
1.00
0.22
0.90
0.30
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pyunik Yerevan · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Otubanjo33%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Artak Dashyan33%
Luka Juričić20%
Juninho17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Anton Bratkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Miljković60%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan33%
Anton Bratkov33%
Mikhail Kovalenko25%
Sergiy Vakulenko25%
Alexander Karapetyan20%
Luka Juričić20%
David Yurchenko17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander González33%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan17%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Luka Juričić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artak Dashyan67%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Luka Juričić20%
Yusuf Otubanjo17%
Dame Diop17%
Alexander González0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Alashkert and Pyunik Yerevan have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Alashkert and Pyunik Yerevan have a similar attack value (both €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Alashkert and Pyunik Yerevan have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Alashkert and Pyunik Yerevan have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Sardarapat
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Syunik
Van