Alashkert are clear favourites, the model rating a 76% chance of a home win, 16% for a draw and 8% for Syunik to triumph. The prediction of a 2-0 victory, with a 12.8% probability, sits atop the most likely scorelines. The expected total of 3.2 goals, with a 22% chance of exactly three, reflects the attacking edge at home: Alashkert average 1.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded against similar opposition, while Syunik, on the road, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selection list is extensive: Away under 3.5 goals99.4%, Under 7.598.3%, Home +2 handicap97.9%, Away under 2.5 goals96.6%, Under 6.595.5%, Home or Draw92.4%, Home +1 handicap92.4%, Home over 0.5 goals91.8%. Alashkert’s recent form, a draw in their last match, and Syunik’s recent defeat, a 1-3 loss, reinforce the home side’s advantage.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alashkert win
79.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Syunik win
6.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.87
1.87
0.40
1.40
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (11)
1.82
0.64
2.17
0.50
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (10)
2.30
0.70
2.17
0.17
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.53
1.20
2.75
1.00
2.39
1.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
2.71
1.00
2.50
0.60
2.80
vs Similar (9)
1.78
0.78
2.50
0.50
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
3.93
0.71
3.50
0.83
4.25
0.62
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
85.1%
Under 1.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
64.6%
Under 2.5
35.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.8%
3-0
11.4%
1-0
8.9%
2-1
8.4%
4-0
7.6%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
7.0%
4-1
5.0%
Alashkert goals ↓
Syunik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.0%
1
8.9%
7.0%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
2
13%
8.4%
2.8%
0.6%
0.1%
3
11%
7.5%
2.5%
0.5%
0.1%
4
7.6%
5.0%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alashkert goals (down), columns = Syunik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Alashkert is 1.97 points better than Syunik in terms of average points per game (2.17 vs 0.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Alashkert is 1.73 goals better than Syunik in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Alashkert is 2.27 goals better than Syunik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 2.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alashkert or Draw
93.8%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers Alashkert + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert or Syunik
85.4%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers Alashkert + Syunik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Syunik
20.7%
Avg Implied -
79%
15%
6%
covers Draw + Syunik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alashkert over/under 0.5
Over
93.1%
Under
6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5
Over
74.6%
Under
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 3.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 3.5
Over
0.5%
Under
99.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Alashkert, so a minus line means Alashkert give that many goals of a start and Syunik receive them. At -1, Alashkert must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alashkert win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alashkert)
Alashkert -2
36.9%
Draw -2
22.1%
Syunik +2
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Alashkert)
Alashkert -1
59.0%
Draw -1
20.2%
Syunik +1
20.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Alashkert)
Alashkert +1
93.8%
Draw +1
4.5%
Syunik -1
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Alashkert)
Alashkert +2
98.3%
Draw +2
1.4%
Syunik -2
0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.47
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
0.78
0.00
0.33
0.17
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.82
0.45
1.17
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (10)
1.30
0.20
0.83
0.17
2.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.47
1.08
0.50
1.22
0.44
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.14
0.50
1.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.14
1.50
0.17
2.12
0.12
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.40
1.07
0.13
0.67
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.56
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (11)
1.00
0.18
1.00
0.17
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.00
0.50
1.25
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Syunik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Syunik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.73
1.67
0.50
1.17
0.89
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.57
0.50
1.00
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (9)
1.00
0.33
1.75
0.00
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
2.07
0.57
2.00
0.67
2.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Syunik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Alashkert's squad is €4m more valuable than Syunik's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Alashkert's attack is €2m more valuable than Syunik's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Alashkert and Syunik have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Alashkert's defence is €1m more valuable than Syunik's (€2m vs €0m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Sardarapat
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Shirak
BKMA
Gandzasar
Ararat
Van