Alashkert’s defensive record at home is impeccable, conceding none in recent matches, while Van has struggled away, allowing an average of one goal per game against similar opposition. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected 1.9 goals, most likely to end 0-0 with a 16.6% chance. The probability spread is 38% for a home win, 35% for a draw, and 28% for an away win, making a home victory the favourite outcome. The predicted total of 2 goals falls under the 2.5-goal threshold, which the model rates at 70.9% and under 3.5 at 87.8%. Alashkert’s home scoring average of one goal and Van’s away scoring of 0.5 suggest a modest offensive output. The suggested picks are Under 3.5 (87.8%) and Under 2.5 (70.9%). The match is expected to be a defensive stalemate, with the home side slightly favoured to edge out a win.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Alashkert, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s expectation of a home win with a 38% probability. The model’s call was wrong. The game’s final score of 0-0 matched the most likely score of 0-0, which the model had assigned a 16.6% chance. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 87.8% probability, hit, as did its Under 2.5 choice at 70.9%. Alashkert had come off a draw in their last five matches, while Van entered the game after a defeat, but neither side could force a result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alashkert win✗ Miss
37.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van win✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
1.22
1.75
0.25
2.20
2.00
vs Stronger (2)
2.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
4.00
3.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
0.50
2.50
0.00
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
44% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.14
1.00
3.00
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
2.00
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.4%
Under 1.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.1%
Under 2.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.2%
Under 3.5
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.2%
No
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
16.6%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.4%
0-1
11.6%
2-0
8.1%
2-1
6.9%
1-2
5.7%
0-2
5.5%
Alashkert goals ↓
Van goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
12%
5.5%
1.6%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.7%
1.6%
0.3%
2
8.1%
6.9%
2.9%
0.8%
0.2%
3
2.8%
2.4%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alashkert goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Urartu
2.31
Pyunik Yerevan
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.11
Alashkert
1.83
Van
1.11
Ararat
1.06
Shirak
1.00
FC Noah
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Lernayin Artsakh
0.61
Alashkert is 0.72 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (1.83 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.00
Ararat-Armenia
1.94
FC Urartu
1.89
Alashkert
1.61
Van
1.06
BKMA
1.00
FC Noah
0.94
Ararat
0.81
Shirak
0.69
Lernayin Artsakh
0.44
Alashkert is 0.56 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.64
FC Urartu
0.69
Ararat-Armenia
0.75
Alashkert
1.03
Ararat
1.17
BKMA
1.47
Shirak
1.53
Lernayin Artsakh
1.64
Van
1.64
FC Noah
1.83
Alashkert is 0.61 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.64).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.78
0.33
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.14
0.43
0.00
1.00
0.20
0.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.22
0.89
1.25
0.00
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.25
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
56% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.71
1.00
2.00
0.60
0.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
3.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
LA (8)
€0m
Alashkert's squad is €4m more valuable than Van's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
Alashkert's attack is €2m more valuable than Van's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
Alashkert and Van have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
LA (3)
€0m
Alashkert and Van have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Urartu
Pyunik Yerevan
Ararat-Armenia
Ararat
Shirak
BKMA
FC Noah
Lernayin Artsakh