Alashkert enter the match as the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 62% chance of a home win. The team’s recent draw against FC Urartu and a 1-1 scoreline suggest they are still finding rhythm, yet their home form - scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 goals against similar opposition - remains solid. Van, on the other hand, has struggled away, losing their last five games and conceding two goals on average while scoring 1.6. Their recent 0-4 defeat to Shirak underscores a defensive frailty that the model weighs heavily against them.
The prediction favours a 2-0 result, the most likely scoreline at 12% probability, and expects a total of 2.7 goals, with a 25% chance of exactly two goals. The overall odds are 62% home win, 24% draw, and 14% away win.
The model’s selections include Over 1.5 with a 76.5% probability and Under 3.5 with a 71.0% probability. Each pick stands alone, with no overlap in win probabilities.
Results analysis
Alashkert’s home form has been shaky, coming off a draw, while Van are still reeling from a 0-4 defeat. The pre-match favourite, a Home win, was assigned a 62% chance, yet the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s call wrong. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with a 76.5% probability, missed, whereas the Under 3.5 pick, at 71%, hit. The final score of 0-0 confirms the unexpected stalemate, undercutting the model’s expectations and illustrating how the predicted favourite fell short.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alashkert win✗ Miss
62.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Van win✗ Miss
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.03
1.20
0.93
1.87
1.13
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
1.56
1.00
1.20
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (9)
1.44
0.89
1.50
1.00
1.40
0.80
vs Weaker (12)
2.00
0.75
1.17
0.67
2.83
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.73
1.18
1.41
1.00
2.15
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
2.50
0.71
2.43
0.43
2.57
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.23
1.25
0.75
1.60
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.1%
Under 2.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.4%
No
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
1-0
11.5%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.7%
0-0 ✓
7.6%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
6.2%
0-1
4.3%
Alashkert goals ↓
Van goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
4.3%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
1
12%
11%
4.2%
1.1%
0.2%
2
12%
9.7%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
7.6%
6.2%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
4
3.6%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alashkert goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Alashkert is 0.36 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Alashkert is 0.61 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 0.89).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Alashkert is 0.31 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.47
0.47
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.40
0.60
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.22
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
0.75
0.42
0.17
0.67
1.33
0.17
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.29
0.53
0.46
0.92
vs Stronger (14)
0.07
0.93
0.00
0.57
0.14
1.29
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.54
0.38
0.50
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
0.73
0.47
1.00
0.67
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
0.78
0.60
0.60
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.67
0.50
1.00
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.03
0.88
0.88
0.54
1.23
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.57
0.71
1.86
0.29
1.29
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.69
0.88
0.25
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Alashkert's squad is €4m more valuable than Van's (€5m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Alashkert's attack is €2m more valuable than Van's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Alashkert and Van have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Alashkert and Van have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pyunik Yerevan
FC Noah
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Ararat
West Armenia
Shirak
BKMA