This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.83
1.79
0.79
1.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.71
0.86
1.85
0.77
1.60
0.93
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.2%
Under 1.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.7%
@ 2.25+11.1%
Under 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.67-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.4%
Under 3.5
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
13.9%
0-1
12.0%
0-3
10.1%
1-1
9.3%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
6.8%
1-3
6.6%
0-4
5.4%
Alaves goals ↓
Atletico Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
12%
14%
10%
5.4%
1
3.1%
9.3%
9.2%
6.6%
3.6%
2
1.3%
2.8%
3.0%
2.2%
1.2%
3
0.3%
0.6%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alaves goals (down), columns = Atletico Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.26
Barcelona
1.92
Atletico Madrid
1.87
Sevilla
1.84
Real Betis
1.71
Real Sociedad
1.63
Villarreal
1.55
Athletic Club
1.45
Valencia
1.26
Osasuna
1.24
Celta Vigo
1.21
Rayo Vallecano
1.11
Espanyol
1.11
Elche
1.11
Getafe
1.03
Cadiz
1.03
Mallorca
1.03
Granada CF
1.00
Levante
0.92
Alaves
0.82
Alaves is 1.05 points worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of average points per game (0.82 vs 1.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Real Madrid
2.11
Barcelona
1.79
Atletico Madrid
1.71
Villarreal
1.66
Real Betis
1.63
Sevilla
1.39
Levante
1.34
Valencia
1.26
Granada CF
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Celta Vigo
1.13
Real Sociedad
1.05
Espanyol
1.05
Elche
1.05
Rayo Vallecano
1.03
Osasuna
0.97
Mallorca
0.95
Cadiz
0.92
Getafe
0.87
Alaves
0.82
Alaves is 0.89 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (0.82 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sevilla
0.79
Real Madrid
0.82
Athletic Club
0.95
Real Sociedad
0.97
Villarreal
0.97
Barcelona
1.00
Real Betis
1.05
Getafe
1.08
Celta Vigo
1.13
Atletico Madrid
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Cadiz
1.34
Osasuna
1.34
Elche
1.37
Espanyol
1.39
Valencia
1.39
Granada CF
1.61
Mallorca
1.66
Alaves
1.71
Levante
2.00
Alaves is 0.58 goals worse than Atletico Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alaves
For 4.3 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.6 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Atletico Madrid
For 5.8 · Against 3.2 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 6.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.0
9.1
4.8
5.3
4.4
27.8
28.0
27.6
vs Stronger (19)
8.6
7.7
9.4
4.4
4.3
4.5
26.3
25.7
26.8
vs Similar (29)
8.6
8.1
9.0
5.2
6.1
4.2
28.6
29.3
27.8
vs Weaker (2)
8.5
10.0
7.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
31.0
28.0
34.0
% over line
34%
28%
40%
64%
68%
60%
84%
84%
84%
% under line
66%
72%
60%
36%
32%
40%
16%
16%
16%
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.2
8.7
4.7
3.8
5.6
25.1
23.4
26.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
9.6
11.5
8.3
5.6
5.0
6.0
26.8
23.0
29.3
vs Weaker (45)
8.9
9.0
8.7
4.6
3.7
5.5
24.9
23.4
26.5
% over line
40%
40%
40%
68%
52%
84%
72%
60%
84%
% under line
60%
60%
60%
32%
48%
16%
28%
40%
16%
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Espanyol
9.5
Barcelona
9.4
Real Madrid
9.3
Valencia
9.3
Real Betis
9.2
Cadiz
9.1
Athletic Club
9.1
Levante
9.1
Atletico Madrid
9.0
Mallorca
8.7
Granada CF
8.7
Sevilla
8.6
Alaves
8.6
Real Sociedad
8.4
Rayo Vallecano
8.4
Villarreal
8.3
Osasuna
8.2
Elche
8.1
Celta Vigo
7.8
Getafe
7.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.5
Celta Vigo
5.8
Rayo Vallecano
5.8
Granada CF
5.7
Mallorca
5.3
Real Betis
5.2
Valencia
5.1
Elche
4.8
Alaves
4.8
Sevilla
4.8
Cadiz
4.8
Espanyol
4.7
Real Sociedad
4.7
Atletico Madrid
4.7
Athletic Club
4.5
Barcelona
4.3
Levante
4.3
Real Madrid
4.3
Osasuna
4.2
Villarreal
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Rayo Vallecano
32.4
Getafe
31.0
Celta Vigo
29.2
Mallorca
28.9
Alaves
27.8
Granada CF
27.8
Real Sociedad
27.6
Valencia
27.4
Elche
27.2
Espanyol
27.1
Real Betis
26.9
Sevilla
26.5
Osasuna
25.7
Athletic Club
25.7
Cadiz
25.4
Levante
25.1
Atletico Madrid
25.1
Villarreal
24.9
Barcelona
24.6
Real Madrid
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
36.8%
Under 9.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.9%
Under 3.5
19.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.2%
Under 21.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.77
0.53
1.00
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
0.78
0.25
1.00
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.80
0.70
1.10
0.20
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.79
0.29
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
0.68
0.43
0.77
0.31
0.60
0.53
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.03
0.67
0.73
0.27
1.33
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.89
1.00
1.75
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.70
0.50
0.40
0.30
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Atletico Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Atletico Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.94
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.04
0.43
1.08
0.46
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Atletico Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 10.5 corners
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away win
71.3%
1.55
-
-
-
-
-
+9.3%
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alaves · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariano Díaz67%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Denis Suárez0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mariano Díaz67%
Abderrahman Rebbach67%
Denis Suárez33%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Antonio Sivera33%
Antonio Blanco33%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mariano Díaz33%
Ángel Pérez33%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Martínez67%
Antonio Blanco33%
Mariano Díaz0%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Atletico Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alex Baena67%
Kang-in Lee33%
Ademola Lookman33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Marcos Llorente33%
Morten Hjulmand33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Kang-in Lee0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcos Llorente33%
Kang-in Lee33%
Dávid Hancko33%
Alex Baena33%
Giuliano Simeone33%
Pablo Barrios33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kang-in Lee33%
Alex Baena33%
Jan Oblak0%
Koke0%
Marcos Llorente0%
Morten Hjulmand0%
Ademola Lookman0%
Dávid Hancko0%
Giuliano Simeone0%
Pablo Barrios0%
Rodrigo Mendoza0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (26)
€48m
CAD (29)
€27m
GC (18)
€17m
Alaves's squad is €585m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€68m vs €653m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
MAL (11)
€23m
CAD (12)
€11m
GC (5)
€6m
Alaves's attack is €266m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€24m vs €290m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€9m
CAD (5)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
Alaves's midfield is €133m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€22m vs €155m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
GET (13)
€26m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
CAD (12)
€12m
GC (10)
€9m
Alaves's defence is €186m less valuable than Atletico Madrid's (€22m vs €208m).
Spain: La Liga 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Real Madrid
Barcelona
Sevilla
Real Betis
Real Sociedad
Villarreal
Athletic Club
Valencia
Osasuna
Celta Vigo
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Espanyol
Getafe
Cadiz
Mallorca
Granada CF
Levante