Alaves vs Getafe Result & Analysis

Alaves’ defensive solidity is the headline of this La Liga clash, with a 0.6 average conceded at home against similarly strong opposition, while Getafe’s away form shows a 0.62 average conceded. The model favours a home win, with a 36% chance, a draw 34%, and an away win 30%. The expected total is 1.9 goals, pointing to a tight, low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, carrying a 15.7% probability. The model’s selections include a 97.7% chance of over 19.5 fouls, 94.6% for over 2.5 cards, 94.3% for over 21.5 fouls, 88.1% for over 23.5 fouls, 86.7% for under 3.5, 86.4% for over 3.5 cards, 79.2% for under 11.5 corners, and 78.5% for over 25.5 fouls. Alaves’ recent win over Villarreal and Getafe’s return from two straight defeats set the narrative for a cautious, defensively-driven match.

Alaves’ win-run was halted as the match finished 1-1, a draw that surprised the pre-match favourite, Home win, who had a 36% chance. The model’s call was wrong. The game delivered on its high-foul expectation: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 97.7%, Over 21.5 fouls at 94.3%, Over 23.5 fouls at 88.1%, Over 25.5 fouls at 78.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 94.6% all hit, as did Over 3.5 cards at 86.4%. Under 3.5 also hit at 86.7%, while Under 11.5 corners missed at 79.2%. The match’s total of two goals matched the most likely score of 1-1, the probability of 28%.