Alaves vs Getafe Result & Analysis

Alaves’ defensive record at home is solid, conceding just 0.86 goals per game against teams of similar strength, while Getafe’s away form shows a slightly tighter 0.64 goals conceded. The model projects a tight affair with an average of 1.8 goals, leaning toward a low-scoring draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 18.6% chance, and the overall expected total is two goals, a 28% probability. The model’s pick is an away win, with probabilities of 27% for a home win, 36% for a draw, and 37% for an away win. Suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 98.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 96.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 94.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 91.1%, Under 3.5 goals at 89.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 86.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 85.6%, and Over 25.5 fouls at 83.1%. The match is expected to be defensive, with both sides likely keeping the scoreline tight.

The pre-match favourite, Getafe, failed to deliver, as the match finished 0-0, a draw that surprised the model’s 37% prediction for an away win. The model’s call was therefore incorrect. The game was a defensive stalemate, with neither side breaking the deadlock. The model’s other selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 98.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 96.0%, Over 2.5 cards at 94.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 91.1%, Under 3.5 at 89.8%, Over 3.5 cards at 86.3%, Under 11.5 corners at 85.6% and Over 25.5 fouls at 83.1%. Alaves had just won their last game 1-0, while Getafe had come off two consecutive defeats, yet the match ended in a stalemate.