Alaves vs Getafe Result & Analysis

Alaves’ defensive record at home shows a tight contest, conceding 1.5 goals on average against similar opposition, while Getafe’s away form is even more subdued, allowing less than a goal per game. The model projects a 39% chance of a home win, 35% for a draw and 26% for an away win, with the home win the clear favourite. The expected total is 1.8 goals, so a 2-goal game is most likely, and the single most probable scoreline is 0-0 at 17.7%. Alaves averages 1.2 goals scored at home and 1.5 conceded; Getafe averages 0.22 goals scored away and 0.89 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 95.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 90.0%, Under 3.5 at 89.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 87.3%, Over 23.5 fouls at 81.0%, Under 10.5 corners at 79.6% and Over 3.5 cards at 79.3%. The match is poised to stay low-scoring, with Alaves the likely victor.

Alaves, riding a win over Villarreal, looked poised to extend their good run, yet the match ended in a 1-1 draw that left the pre-match favourite - a home win - disappointed. The model had given the home side a 39% chance of triumph, but the outcome was a draw, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s other selections proved accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 95.6%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 90.0%, Under 3.5 at 89.0%, Under 11.5 corners at 87.3%, Over 23.5 fouls at 81.0%, Under 10.5 corners at 79.6% and Over 3.5 cards at 79.3%. All probabilities were expressed as percentages, and every pick’s result was noted.