Pythia gives Alaves a 42% win probability against Rayo Vallecano in the Spain: La Liga on 2026-05-23, with 31% for the draw and 28% for Rayo Vallecano. The model estimates around 2.3 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (14.4%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (93%), Over 2.5 cards (91%), Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (80%).
Results analysis
Alaves finished 1-2 against Rayo Vallecano (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 42% home win, 31% draw and 28% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (93%), Over 2.5 cards (91%), Over 21.5 fouls (86%), Under 3.5 (80%), Over 3.5 cards (79%), Over 23.5 fouls (74%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alaves win✗ Miss
41.6%
Avg Implied 38.7% · @ 2.41
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.6%
Avg Implied 28.2% · @ 3.31
Edge
+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano win✓ Hit
27.8%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.82
Edge
-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.57
1.33
1.27
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (14)
1.21
1.71
1.43
1.43
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.44
1.25
1.12
1.25
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.10
1.59
0.71
1.00
1.62
vs Stronger (12)
1.42
0.92
1.86
0.57
0.80
1.40
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.22
1.40
0.80
1.12
1.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.2%
Under 1.5
31.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.4%
@ 1.94-7.6%
Under 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.79+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.4%
No
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
11.6%
0-0
11.3%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.4%
2-0
8.3%
1-2 ✓
6.6%
0-2
5.1%
Alaves goals ↓
Rayo Vallecano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.8%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.6%
2.2%
0.6%
2
8.3%
8.4%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
3
3.6%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alaves goals (down), columns = Rayo Vallecano goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Sevilla
1.13
Levante
1.11
Mallorca
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Girona
1.08
Oviedo
0.76
Alaves is 0.18 points worse than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.32).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Mallorca
1.24
Valencia
1.21
Sevilla
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Espanyol
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Girona
1.03
Getafe
0.84
Oviedo
0.68
Alaves is 0.08 goals better than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Girona
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Mallorca
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Oviedo
1.58
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Alaves is 0.32 goals worse than Rayo Vallecano in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.16).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Girona
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Mallorca
47%
Osasuna
47%
Oviedo
46%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Alaves is 5.4 percentage points worse than Rayo Vallecano in terms of average possession (48% vs 53%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alaves
For 4.8 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.0 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rayo Vallecano
For 4.4 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.2 · Against 11.1 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.3
9.9
5.1
5.5
4.7
28.7
28.6
28.7
vs Stronger (25)
9.6
9.7
9.5
5.0
5.6
4.2
28.0
28.8
27.1
vs Similar (25)
10.6
11.0
10.2
5.2
5.3
5.1
29.4
28.5
30.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
56%
48%
74%
80%
68%
92%
92%
92%
% under line
48%
44%
52%
26%
20%
32%
8%
8%
8%
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
11.0
10.5
5.5
5.0
6.0
24.6
22.9
26.5
vs Stronger (20)
11.1
10.6
11.5
6.0
5.6
6.3
24.4
22.9
25.8
vs Similar (29)
10.6
11.3
9.9
5.3
4.7
5.9
24.8
22.7
27.0
vs Weaker (1)
12.0
12.0
-
3.0
3.0
-
26.0
26.0
-
% over line
66%
73%
58%
74%
69%
79%
76%
69%
83%
% under line
34%
27%
42%
26%
31%
21%
24%
31%
17%
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rayo Vallecano
10.8
Real Madrid
10.7
Atletico Madrid
10.5
Barcelona
10.4
Real Sociedad
10.2
Mallorca
10.2
Alaves
10.1
Espanyol
10.0
Levante
10.0
Girona
9.7
Valencia
9.6
Athletic Club
9.2
Sevilla
9.2
Oviedo
9.2
Real Betis
9.0
Osasuna
8.9
Villarreal
8.7
Getafe
8.6
Elche
8.5
Celta Vigo
8.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Rayo Vallecano
5.5
Getafe
5.5
Sevilla
5.2
Alaves
5.1
Real Sociedad
4.9
Levante
4.9
Osasuna
4.9
Real Madrid
4.9
Espanyol
4.9
Real Betis
4.8
Valencia
4.6
Elche
4.6
Celta Vigo
4.6
Athletic Club
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Barcelona
4.3
Girona
4.3
Villarreal
4.3
Oviedo
4.3
Atletico Madrid
4.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
29.0
Alaves
28.7
Elche
27.5
Sevilla
27.1
Real Sociedad
25.8
Espanyol
25.6
Oviedo
25.2
Athletic Club
25.1
Levante
25.0
Osasuna
24.8
Mallorca
24.7
Rayo Vallecano
24.6
Girona
24.6
Villarreal
24.5
Valencia
24.2
Real Betis
24.2
Celta Vigo
23.9
Real Madrid
23.8
Barcelona
21.9
Atletico Madrid
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
57.0%
Under 9.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.9%
Under 3.5
21.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
85.6%
Under 21.5
14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.50
0.60
0.27
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (14)
0.64
0.64
0.86
0.29
0.43
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.44
0.38
0.38
0.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Rayo Vallecano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rayo Vallecano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.71
0.24
0.54
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.50
1.00
0.14
0.40
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.61
0.50
0.30
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rayo Vallecano over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (65)
€1301m
RM (42)
€1256m
AM (35)
€540m
VIL (39)
€360m
RS (37)
€270m
AC (39)
€236m
CV (35)
€200m
GIR (41)
€199m
SEV (37)
€163m
VAL (41)
€147m
ELC (40)
€127m
LEV (28)
€111m
OSA (32)
€99m
GET (43)
€94m
RV (31)
€94m
ALA (33)
€78m
MAL (23)
€77m
OVI (38)
€61m
Alaves's squad is €16m less valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€78m vs €94m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€712m
BAR (21)
€589m
AM (10)
€226m
VIL (15)
€168m
RS (16)
€132m
AC (15)
€103m
GIR (15)
€83m
CV (13)
€81m
LEV (10)
€68m
SEV (12)
€65m
VAL (13)
€54m
OSA (11)
€51m
GET (16)
€46m
ELC (15)
€34m
MAL (7)
€31m
RV (9)
€29m
ALA (11)
€26m
OVI (14)
€26m
Alaves's attack is €2m less valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€26m vs €29m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (14)
€298m
RM (8)
€250m
AM (7)
€123m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (6)
€55m
RS (7)
€54m
VAL (8)
€46m
CV (7)
€39m
ELC (7)
€37m
GIR (8)
€33m
SEV (7)
€28m
GET (8)
€25m
MAL (5)
€23m
ALA (6)
€22m
LEV (7)
€15m
OSA (6)
€13m
OVI (8)
€11m
RV (7)
€11m
Alaves's midfield is €11m more valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€22m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (30)
€413m
RM (22)
€294m
AM (18)
€190m
VIL (18)
€137m
GIR (18)
€84m
RS (14)
€83m
CV (15)
€80m
AC (17)
€76m
SEV (18)
€70m
ELC (18)
€56m
RV (15)
€54m
VAL (20)
€47m
OSA (15)
€35m
ALA (16)
€29m
LEV (11)
€27m
OVI (16)
€23m
GET (19)
€23m
MAL (11)
€23m
Alaves's defence is €25m less valuable than Rayo Vallecano's (€29m vs €54m).
Spain: La Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →