Alaves vs Real Sociedad Result & Analysis

Real Sociedad are the clear favourite, with the model giving them a 62% chance of victory, compared with 15% for Alaves and 23% for a draw. The prediction stems from Real’s stronger away form, scoring 1.43 goals per game and conceding only 0.71 against weaker opposition, while Alaves at home have struggled against stronger teams, netting only 1.25 and conceding 1.0. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at a 25% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 0-2, with a 11.4% chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.8%), Under 6.5 (97.4%), Away +2 handicap (95.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.3%), Under 5.5 (93.2%), Over 19.5 fouls (90.9%) and Over 8.5 corners (86.5%). Alaves’ recent form shows a draw before a win, while Real Sociedad returned from a defeat, underscoring the model’s confidence in the away side’s advantage.

Alaves’ recent form, a draw that kept them in the mix, was eclipsed by Real Sociedad’s win-less run, yet the model’s forecast of an away victory proved accurate, with the final score 2-3 confirming the predicted outcome. The model had assigned a 62% probability to the away win, and that selection was correct. The model’s other choices also performed well: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.8%, Under 6.5 at 97.4%, Away +2 handicap at 95.1%, Home under 2.5 goals at 94.3%, Under 5.5 at 93.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 90.9%, and Over 8.5 corners at 86.5%. All selections settled as predicted.