This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.43
1.50
1.12
1.64
1.79
vs Stronger (5)
2.40
2.60
2.50
2.25
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (20)
1.35
1.05
1.09
0.73
1.67
1.44
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.80
2.00
1.00
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.1%
Under 2.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.0%
Under 3.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.4%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
8.0%
0-0
7.8%
0-1
7.5%
2-0
6.4%
0-2
5.8%
Alaves goals ↓
Sevilla goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
7.5%
5.8%
2.5%
0.8%
1
8.0%
13%
8.0%
3.5%
1.2%
2
6.4%
8.5%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
3.0%
4.0%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.4%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alaves goals (down), columns = Sevilla goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.29
Atletico Madrid
2.00
Real Madrid
1.79
Valencia
1.61
Getafe
1.55
Sevilla
1.55
Espanyol
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Real Sociedad
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Real Betis
1.32
Eibar
1.24
Leganes
1.18
Villarreal
1.16
Levante
1.16
Celta Vigo
1.08
Valladolid
1.08
Girona
0.97
Huesca
0.87
Rayo Vallecano
0.84
Alaves is 0.24 points worse than Sevilla in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.55).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.37
Real Madrid
1.66
Sevilla
1.63
Levante
1.55
Atletico Madrid
1.45
Celta Vigo
1.39
Valencia
1.34
Villarreal
1.29
Espanyol
1.26
Getafe
1.26
Eibar
1.21
Real Sociedad
1.18
Real Betis
1.16
Huesca
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Athletic Club
1.08
Alaves
1.03
Girona
0.97
Leganes
0.97
Valladolid
0.84
Alaves is 0.61 goals worse than Sevilla in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.76
Getafe
0.92
Valencia
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Leganes
1.13
Athletic Club
1.18
Real Sociedad
1.21
Real Madrid
1.21
Sevilla
1.24
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.32
Alaves
1.32
Valladolid
1.34
Real Betis
1.37
Villarreal
1.37
Girona
1.39
Celta Vigo
1.63
Huesca
1.71
Levante
1.74
Rayo Vallecano
1.84
Alaves is 0.08 goals worse than Sevilla in terms of goals conceded per game (1.32 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alaves
For 3.8 · Against 6.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 13.1 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Sevilla
For 5.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.1 · Total 26.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.6
10.5
5.3
6.1
4.5
29.2
30.8
27.6
vs Stronger (18)
10.3
10.4
10.2
4.5
4.8
4.1
28.1
28.6
27.4
vs Similar (31)
9.9
9.0
10.6
5.7
7.0
4.7
29.7
32.1
27.6
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
33.0
33.0
-
% over line
54%
48%
60%
74%
84%
64%
86%
92%
80%
% under line
46%
52%
40%
26%
16%
36%
14%
8%
20%
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.8
10.3
11.2
5.0
5.4
4.7
28.1
29.4
26.8
vs Stronger (8)
10.2
9.8
10.8
3.8
4.8
2.8
26.1
27.5
24.8
vs Similar (34)
11.1
10.6
11.7
5.6
6.0
5.2
28.5
30.1
27.0
vs Weaker (8)
9.6
9.5
9.8
4.0
3.2
4.8
28.2
28.2
28.2
% over line
64%
64%
64%
72%
84%
60%
90%
96%
84%
% under line
36%
36%
36%
28%
16%
40%
10%
4%
16%
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sevilla
10.8
Villarreal
10.5
Valladolid
10.4
Real Sociedad
10.3
Valencia
10.3
Real Madrid
10.2
Alaves
10.0
Levante
10.0
Rayo Vallecano
9.9
Huesca
9.8
Barcelona
9.7
Eibar
9.7
Real Betis
9.6
Espanyol
9.6
Atletico Madrid
9.5
Getafe
9.3
Celta Vigo
9.3
Athletic Club
9.3
Girona
9.2
Leganes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Getafe
6.7
Athletic Club
5.8
Girona
5.7
Valencia
5.7
Levante
5.7
Valladolid
5.5
Huesca
5.4
Villarreal
5.4
Real Betis
5.3
Alaves
5.3
Espanyol
5.3
Atletico Madrid
5.3
Leganes
5.2
Sevilla
5.0
Celta Vigo
5.0
Rayo Vallecano
4.9
Barcelona
4.6
Real Sociedad
4.6
Eibar
4.6
Real Madrid
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Getafe
31.2
Girona
29.4
Alaves
29.2
Valladolid
29.1
Espanyol
28.3
Sevilla
28.1
Valencia
28.0
Huesca
27.9
Leganes
27.9
Rayo Vallecano
27.4
Athletic Club
27.3
Villarreal
27.0
Levante
26.7
Atletico Madrid
26.5
Real Sociedad
26.2
Celta Vigo
26.0
Real Betis
25.7
Real Madrid
25.7
Eibar
25.1
Barcelona
24.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.4%
Under 9.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.2%
Under 3.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.8%
Under 21.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.29
0.36
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
0.60
0.17
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.42
0.29
0.14
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.69
0.44
0.79
0.71
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
0.80
1.50
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.70
0.45
0.45
0.45
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.07
0.50
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (10)
0.70
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.37
1.14
0.57
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Sevilla) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sevilla
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.87
0.81
0.69
0.86
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
1.20
1.80
1.00
1.75
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.60
0.64
0.27
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sevilla over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alaves · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariano Díaz67%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Denis Suárez0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mariano Díaz67%
Abderrahman Rebbach67%
Denis Suárez33%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Antonio Sivera33%
Antonio Blanco33%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mariano Díaz33%
Ángel Pérez33%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Martínez67%
Antonio Blanco33%
Mariano Díaz0%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Sevilla · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chidera Ejuke33%
Jon Guridi33%
Peque Fernández33%
Isaac Romero33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Romero100%
Gabriel Suazo67%
Jon Guridi67%
Lucien Agoumé33%
Peque Fernández33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Robbie Ure0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Isaac Romero33%
Robbie Ure33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Miguel Sierra0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robbie Ure33%
Miguel Sierra33%
Odysseas Vlachodimos0%
Gabriel Suazo0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Chidera Ejuke0%
Jon Guridi0%
Juan Iglesias0%
Peque Fernández0%
Isaac Romero0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GIR (28)
€114m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RV (23)
€76m
ALA (25)
€68m
LEG (26)
€30m
VAL (29)
€26m
EIB (24)
€15m
HUE (21)
€5m
Alaves's squad is €66m less valuable than Sevilla's (€68m vs €134m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
GIR (12)
€64m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
RV (10)
€30m
ALA (8)
€24m
LEG (11)
€14m
VAL (11)
€10m
EIB (8)
€7m
HUE (9)
€2m
Alaves's attack is €21m less valuable than Sevilla's (€24m vs €45m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GIR (7)
€28m
GET (6)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
RV (4)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
EIB (6)
€3m
HUE (4)
€1m
Alaves's midfield is €1m less valuable than Sevilla's (€22m vs €23m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
GET (13)
€26m
GIR (9)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
VAL (12)
€10m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
HUE (8)
€2m
Alaves's defence is €44m less valuable than Sevilla's (€22m vs €65m).
Spain: La Liga 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Real Madrid
Valencia
Getafe
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Real Sociedad
Real Betis
Eibar
Leganes
Villarreal
Levante
Celta Vigo
Valladolid
Girona
Huesca
Rayo Vallecano