Alaves vs Villarreal Result & Analysis

The clash between Alaves and Villarreal sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring an away win. Home advantage is modest: Alaves averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against stronger opponents, while Villarreal, on the road, nets 1.78 and concedes only 0.89 against weaker sides. The expected goal total is 2.4, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at a 14.3% probability. Home win stands at 29%, a draw at 30%, and an away win at 41%. The single most probable outcome, the model pick, is the away victory.

The match is likely to see plenty of action: over 19.5 fouls (93.8%), over 2.5 cards (88.5%), over 21.5 fouls (86.8%), under 3.5 goals (78.1%), under 11.5 corners (77.6%), over 23.5 fouls (76.2%), over 3.5 cards (75.2%), and over 1.5 goals (70.2%). Each of these selections carries its own probability, independent of the match result. Both sides are coming off recent wins and defeats respectively, adding further intrigue to an evenly balanced contest.

Alaves’ recent win over Villarreal had the home side riding a good streak, but the match ended in a 1-1 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite - Villarreal, picked by the model with a 41% chance of victory - wrong. The model’s call was incorrect, and the result was a draw. The model’s selections all hit: Over 19.5 fouls at 93.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 88.5%, Over 21.5 fouls at 86.8%, Under 3.5 at 78.1%, Under 11.5 corners at 77.6%, Over 23.5 fouls at 76.2%, Over 3.5 cards at 75.2%, and Over 1.5 at 70.2%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and every pick was settled.