Alaves and Villarreal face a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring an away win. The probability of a home victory sits at 32%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 41%. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.1% chance. Alaves, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded. Villarreal, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 4% edge), Under 6.5 (97.9% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (97.7% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6% with a 2% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (95.5% with a 5% edge), and Away under 3.5 goals (94.5% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The win for Alaves, coming off a 1-0 victory, was the headline surprise, as the pre-match favourite was Villarreal with a 40% chance. The modelâs call was wrong, and the final score of 1-0 confirmed a home win. The model had predicted an away win with a 40% probability, but the result was the opposite. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.9%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 96.6%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 95.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 95.5%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 94.5%. The match delivered a low-scoring outcome, with the home sideâs recent form extending their winning run.
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đŻ 1. Model Analysis
Alaves winâ Hit
32.6%
Avg Implied 30.4% · @ 3.14
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.29
Pinnacle
3.28
Marathonbet
3.24
Betfair
3.20
Bet365
3.20
Drawâ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.3% · @ 3.48
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.62
BetVictor
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Pinnacle
3.56
Bet365
3.50
Villarreal winâ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied 42.3% · @ 2.25
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.27
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.26
✠2. Goal Analysis
Alaves
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.50
1.50
1.31
1.43
1.71
vs Stronger (11)
1.36
1.82
1.43
1.57
1.25
2.25
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.39
1.56
1.11
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.57
2.36
1.43
1.12
1.69
vs Stronger (5)
1.60
2.20
1.67
1.67
1.50
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.80
2.00
1.83
0.50
1.75
vs Weaker (15)
1.93
1.20
3.20
0.80
1.30
1.40
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.2%
@ 1.25+1.9%
Under 1.5
22.8%
@ 3.82-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Unibet
3.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.9%
@ 1.82-0.6%
Under 2.5
48.1%
@ 2.01+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.85
SBO
1.84
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Under
1xBet
2.07
Pinnacle
2.06
SBO
2.04
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.7%
@ 2.98-2.0%
Under 3.5
70.3%
@ 1.38+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Unibet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Betano
3.00
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.9%
@ 1.64-0.0%
No
43.1%
@ 2.17+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
10Bet
1.65
Unibet
1.64
No
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.17
Unibet
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.32+6.0%
1-2
8.7%@ 8.36+3.2%
0-1
8.1%@ 8.21+2.5%
2-1
7.8%@ 10.22+3.3%
0-0
7.6%@ 11.01+3.4%
1-0 â
7.1%@ 9.94+2.5%
0-2
6.7%@ 10.71+2.4%
2-2
5.7%@ 11.98+1.8%
Alaves goals ↓
Villarreal goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
8.1%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
1
7.1%
13%
8.7%
4.2%
1.5%
2
5.4%
7.8%
5.7%
2.7%
1.0%
3
2.3%
3.4%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alaves goals (down), columns = Villarreal goals (across).
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đȘ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
đ Total PPG
Points / game
Barcelona
2.47
Real Madrid
2.26
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.82
Real Betis
1.58
Celta Vigo
1.42
Getafe
1.34
Rayo Vallecano
1.32
Valencia
1.29
Real Sociedad
1.21
Espanyol
1.21
Athletic Club
1.18
Sevilla
1.13
Elche
1.13
Alaves
1.13
Levante
1.11
Osasuna
1.11
Malaga
1.10
Racing Santander
1.10
Deportivo La Coruna
1.08
Alaves is 0.76 points worse than Villarreal in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.89).
âïž Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
2.50
Real Madrid
2.03
Villarreal
1.89
Atletico Madrid
1.63
Real Sociedad
1.55
Real Betis
1.55
Celta Vigo
1.39
Elche
1.29
Levante
1.24
Sevilla
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Osasuna
1.16
Alaves
1.16
Athletic Club
1.13
Espanyol
1.13
Rayo Vallecano
1.08
Malaga
1.08
Racing Santander
1.08
Deportivo La Coruna
1.06
Getafe
0.84
Alaves is 0.74 goals worse than Villarreal in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.89).
đĄïž Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Real Madrid
0.92
Barcelona
0.95
Getafe
1.00
Atletico Madrid
1.16
Rayo Vallecano
1.16
Villarreal
1.21
Real Betis
1.26
Celta Vigo
1.26
Osasuna
1.32
Valencia
1.45
Espanyol
1.45
Alaves
1.47
Elche
1.50
Athletic Club
1.53
Sevilla
1.58
Levante
1.61
Real Sociedad
1.61
Malaga
1.69
Racing Santander
1.69
Deportivo La Coruna
1.72
Alaves is 0.26 goals worse than Villarreal in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.21).
â±ïž Possession
Avg possession %
Barcelona
69%
Real Madrid
59%
Elche
58%
Rayo Vallecano
53%
Atletico Madrid
53%
Real Sociedad
51%
Sevilla
51%
Celta Vigo
50%
Real Betis
50%
Athletic Club
49%
Alaves
48%
Valencia
48%
Osasuna
47%
Villarreal
45%
Levante
43%
Espanyol
42%
Getafe
40%
Alaves is 3.6 percentage points better than Villarreal in terms of average possession (48% vs 45%).
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alaves or Drawâ Hit
61.7%
Avg Implied 57.2% · @ 1.65
Edge
+4.5%
33%
28%
40%
covers Alaves + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Alaves or Villarrealâ Hit
71.9%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.29
Edge
-1.1%
33%
28%
40%
covers Alaves + Villarreal
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
Draw or Villarrealâ Miss
66.4%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.35
Edge
-3.4%
33%
28%
40%
covers Draw + Villarreal
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
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đ„ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alaves over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
72.9%
@ 1.32+2.0%
Under
27.1%
@ 3.21-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.34
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Alaves over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.6%
@ 2.55+0.9%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.48-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Marathonbet
2.60
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
Under
1xBet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
Pinnacle
1.49
Alaves over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 6.17-0.7%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.10+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.40
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Alaves over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 14.83-2.1%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.02+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Villarreal over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
75.5%
@ 1.21-1.7%
Under
24.5%
@ 4.11+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.42
Bet365
4.33
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Villarreal over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
41.1%
@ 2.04-4.8%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.73+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.12
Marathonbet
2.09
Superbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.05
Under
1xBet
1.79
Pinnacle
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Villarreal over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 4.38-4.4%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.19+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Pinnacle
4.54
Marathonbet
4.45
BetVictor
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Villarreal over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.5%
@ 9.93-4.0%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.03+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.25
Superbet
9.80
Unibet
9.50
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
âïž 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Alaves, so a minus line means Alaves give that many goals of a start and Villarreal receive them. At -1, Alaves must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alaves win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alaves)Actual: Villarreal
Alaves -2
5.3%
@ 13.29-1.4%
Draw -2
10.0%
@ 8.08-1.1%
Villarreal +2
84.6%
@ 1.09+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
13.00
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
9.50
Superbet
8.70
Unibet
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Away
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Handicap -1 (Alaves)Actual: Draw
Alaves -1
15.4%
@ 6.55+1.6%
Draw -1
18.2%
@ 4.69-0.9%
Villarreal +1
66.4%
@ 1.34-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.85
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Betfair
1.30
Handicap +1 (Alaves)Actual: Alaves
Alaves +1
61.7%
@ 1.65+6.8%
Draw +1
19.8%
@ 3.93-3.3%
Villarreal -1
18.5%
@ 4.11-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.69
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Unibet
1.64
10Bet
1.62
Draw
Superbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
10Bet
3.85
Away
10Bet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.10
Unibet
4.00
Handicap +2 (Alaves)Actual: Alaves
Alaves +2
81.5%
@ 1.20+6.0%
Draw +2
11.6%
@ 6.26-2.8%
Villarreal -2
6.9%
@ 9.03-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.00
Away
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
10.00
Superbet
8.80
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
â±ïž 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.43
0.62
0.31
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.45
1.00
0.29
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.44
0.33
0.33
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.73
1.36
0.43
0.56
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
1.33
0.67
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.70
1.50
0.67
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (15)
0.87
0.73
1.20
0.00
0.70
1.10
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.8%
@ 1.36-0.3%
Under 0.5
31.2%
@ 3.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Under
Betfair
3.30
Bet365
3.25
Superbet
3.15
Pinnacle
3.12
William Hil
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.3%
@ 2.66-2.9%
Under 1.5
67.7%
@ 1.45+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.84
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Under
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Betano
1.45
William Hil
1.44
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.3%
@ 6.63-2.8%
Under 2.5
88.7%
@ 1.09+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.55
1xBet
6.55
Under
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
đ„ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.1%
@ 2.19+0.5%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.62-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Betano
2.20
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
Unibet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.3%
@ 7.12-2.7%
Under
89.7%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
1xBet
7.60
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 18.25-3.7%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Villarreal over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.8%
@ 1.91-3.0%
Under
54.2%
@ 1.82+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Unibet
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Under
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Villarreal over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
13.5%
@ 5.56-3.2%
Under
86.5%
@ 1.11+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Villarreal over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 14.12-4.4%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
â±ïž 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.07
0.88
1.00
0.93
1.14
vs Stronger (11)
0.55
1.36
0.43
1.29
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.94
1.22
0.78
0.89
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Villarreal) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Villarreal
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
1.00
1.00
0.56
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
0.33
1.00
1.50
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.30
1.10
0.50
1.17
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.47
2.00
0.80
0.60
0.30
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
76.9%
@ 1.20-0.7%
Under 0.5
23.1%
@ 4.17+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
Under
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
43.2%
@ 1.99-4.1%
Under 1.5
56.8%
@ 1.78+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Bet365
2.00
William Hil
2.00
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.7%
@ 4.08-5.2%
Under 2.5
82.3%
@ 1.21+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
đ„ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
50.3%
@ 1.81-0.9%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.91+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Betano
1.78
Under
Betano
1.98
Superbet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.88
Alaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 5.04-3.2%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.14+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.20
Superbet
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Alaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 13.25-3.7%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Villarreal over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
54.8%
@ 1.63-2.2%
Under
45.2%
@ 2.16+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Under
1xBet
2.23
Betano
2.20
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.06
Villarreal over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
17.6%
@ 3.90-6.2%
Under
82.4%
@ 1.22+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.85
1xBet
3.80
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Villarreal over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.5%
@ 10.38-4.6%
Under
95.5%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
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đ„ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
â Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+2.6%
â Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
â Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
â Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+2.1%
â Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.5%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.6%
â Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.5%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Unibet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
+4.0%
â Hit
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.02
+3.0%
â Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.7%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+2.7%
â Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.7%
1.09
Superbet
1.12
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
+2.8%
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.3%
1.15
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.10
-
-
-
+7.8%
â Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+3.2%
â Hit
Under 4.5
86.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
+2.5%
â Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
+0.7%
â Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.8%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+3.2%
â Hit
Away +2 handicap
84.6%
1.09
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
+2.5%
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.4%
1.33
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+16.2%
â Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
83.2%
1.19
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
+4.4%
â Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.22
Betano
1.24
10Bet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.20
+6.2%
â Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.3%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+5.2%
â Hit
Home +2 handicap
81.5%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+6.0%
â Hit
Over 1.5
77.2%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
BetVictor
1.26
10Bet
1.25
+1.9%
â Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.20
Superbet
1.23
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
-0.7%
â Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
75.5%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Unibet
1.21
-1.7%
â Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.8%
1.37
Betano
1.44
Unibet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.31
-
+7.2%
â Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
72.9%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.34
1xBet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
+2.0%
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
72.7%
1.31
Superbet
1.37
Unibet
1.34
1xBet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.29
+2.5%
â Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
72.6%
1.47
1xBet
1.47
-
-
-
-
+10.6%
â Miss
Home or Away
71.9%
1.29
Marathonbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Betano
1.30
William Hil
1.30
-1.1%
â Hit
Under 3.5
70.3%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
+2.0%
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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đ° 14. Squad value
đ° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
GET (24)
€90m
LEV (26)
€89m
RS (20)
€89m
DLC (29)
€84m
ELC (27)
€79m
RV (23)
€76m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
Alaves's squad is €256m less valuable than Villarreal's (€68m vs €325m).
âïž Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
LEV (10)
€51m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
GET (5)
€36m
ELC (13)
€34m
RS (7)
€34m
RV (10)
€30m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
Alaves's attack is €100m less valuable than Villarreal's (€24m vs €124m).
đ§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
GET (6)
€28m
RS (5)
€28m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
LEV (5)
€16m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
ELC (5)
€12m
RV (4)
€9m
MAL (5)
€6m
Alaves's midfield is €30m less valuable than Villarreal's (€22m vs €52m).
đĄïž Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
RV (9)
€36m
OSA (10)
€33m
ELC (9)
€33m
RS (8)
€28m
GET (13)
€26m
DLC (13)
€22m
LEV (11)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
MAL (11)
€9m
Alaves's defence is €127m less valuable than Villarreal's (€22m vs €148m).
Spain: La Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Osasuna
Sevilla
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Levante
Racing Santander
Real Sociedad
Espanyol
Athletic Club
Getafe
Celta Vigo
Valencia
Rayo Vallecano
Elche
Malaga