This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.50
0.87
1.60
1.33
1.40
vs Stronger (17)
1.00
1.59
1.00
1.90
1.00
1.14
vs Similar (13)
1.23
1.38
0.60
1.00
1.62
1.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.9%
Under 1.5
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
42.4%
@ 2.28+1.0%
Under 2.5
57.6%
@ 1.61-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.7%
Under 3.5
78.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.3%
No
52.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
0-1
12.4%
0-0
10.5%
0-2
10.0%
1-2
9.1%
1-0
7.2%
2-1
5.7%
0-3
4.9%
Alcorcon goals ↓
FC Cartagena goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
12%
10.0%
4.9%
1.8%
1
7.2%
14%
9.1%
4.4%
1.6%
2
3.9%
5.7%
4.1%
2.0%
0.7%
3
1.2%
1.7%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alcorcon goals (down), columns = FC Cartagena goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leganes
1.76
Valladolid
1.71
Espanyol
1.65
Eibar
1.64
Oviedo
1.54
Racing Santander
1.52
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Burgos
1.40
Levante
1.40
Elche
1.40
Racing Ferrol
1.40
Tenerife
1.33
FC Cartagena
1.21
Zaragoza
1.21
Albacete
1.21
Eldense
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Mirandes
1.17
Amorebieta
1.07
Alcorcon
1.05
Villarreal II
1.02
FC Andorra
1.02
Alcorcon is 0.17 points worse than FC Cartagena in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Eibar
1.64
Racing Santander
1.50
Espanyol
1.35
Leganes
1.33
Oviedo
1.26
Burgos
1.24
Valladolid
1.21
Albacete
1.19
Levante
1.17
Racing Ferrol
1.17
Sporting Gijon
1.16
Mirandes
1.12
Eldense
1.10
Elche
1.02
Zaragoza
1.00
Villarreal II
0.98
Tenerife
0.90
Amorebieta
0.88
FC Cartagena
0.88
Huesca
0.86
FC Andorra
0.79
Alcorcon
0.76
Alcorcon is 0.12 goals worse than FC Cartagena in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 0.88).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leganes
0.64
Huesca
0.79
Valladolid
0.86
Oviedo
0.89
Espanyol
0.89
Tenerife
0.98
Sporting Gijon
0.98
Zaragoza
1.00
Levante
1.07
Elche
1.10
Eibar
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.21
Racing Ferrol
1.24
Amorebieta
1.26
FC Andorra
1.26
Alcorcon
1.26
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.31
Mirandes
1.31
Eldense
1.33
Albacete
1.33
Villarreal II
1.48
Alcorcon is 0.05 goals worse than FC Cartagena in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
63%
Elche
58%
Valladolid
56%
Eibar
55%
Oviedo
54%
Sporting Gijon
54%
Levante
52%
Racing Ferrol
52%
Espanyol
51%
Zaragoza
50%
Villarreal II
50%
Tenerife
50%
Albacete
49%
Racing Santander
47%
Burgos
47%
Amorebieta
46%
Leganes
46%
Eldense
45%
Huesca
45%
Mirandes
45%
FC Cartagena
44%
Alcorcon
42%
Alcorcon is 1.9 percentage points worse than FC Cartagena in terms of average possession (42% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alcorcon
For 3.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.0 · Against 2.3 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 11.7 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Cartagena
For 4.3 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 13.8 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alcorcon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
8.8
4.7
5.0
4.4
26.3
25.7
26.9
vs Stronger (25)
9.4
9.5
9.4
5.5
5.6
5.3
27.6
27.6
27.6
vs Similar (25)
8.3
8.3
8.3
3.9
4.2
3.5
25.0
23.6
26.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
32%
52%
66%
72%
60%
80%
80%
80%
% under line
58%
68%
48%
34%
28%
40%
20%
20%
20%
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.7
8.6
1.2
1.5
0.9
26.8
27.5
26.0
vs Stronger (29)
10.7
10.4
12.0
1.3
2.2
0.3
27.7
27.6
28.0
vs Similar (21)
8.6
12.0
7.8
1.0
0.2
1.6
25.8
27.0
25.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
73%
83%
60%
20%
20%
20%
91%
83%
100%
% under line
27%
17%
40%
80%
80%
80%
9%
17%
0%
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Huesca
10.4
Espanyol
10.3
Valladolid
10.1
Sporting Gijon
10.0
Mirandes
9.9
Burgos
9.5
Villarreal II
9.5
Racing Santander
9.4
Amorebieta
9.4
Elche
9.4
Zaragoza
9.3
Eibar
9.3
Levante
9.2
Eldense
9.0
Oviedo
8.9
Alcorcon
8.9
FC Cartagena
8.8
Tenerife
8.7
Racing Ferrol
8.5
Leganes
8.5
Albacete
8.3
FC Andorra
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Espanyol
5.9
Racing Santander
5.9
Levante
5.5
Zaragoza
5.5
Huesca
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.3
Tenerife
5.3
Valladolid
5.1
FC Cartagena
5.1
Leganes
5.1
Mirandes
5.1
Elche
5.0
Oviedo
5.0
Albacete
4.9
Eibar
4.8
Alcorcon
4.7
Villarreal II
4.6
Burgos
4.5
FC Andorra
4.5
Amorebieta
4.2
Eldense
4.2
Racing Ferrol
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
32.2
Leganes
29.1
FC Cartagena
28.5
Albacete
28.0
Huesca
27.7
Tenerife
27.5
Oviedo
27.2
Valladolid
27.1
Eldense
27.0
Elche
26.8
Espanyol
26.6
Alcorcon
26.3
Levante
26.1
Zaragoza
25.8
Amorebieta
25.7
FC Andorra
25.6
Villarreal II
25.3
Mirandes
25.0
Racing Ferrol
24.8
Burgos
24.6
Eibar
24.6
Sporting Gijon
23.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
34.8%
Under 9.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.6%
Under 3.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
76.1%
Under 21.5
23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.13
0.73
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
0.50
0.25
0.62
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (16)
0.31
0.81
0.00
0.86
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.53
0.87
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (17)
0.59
1.00
0.80
1.10
0.29
0.86
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.46
0.00
0.40
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.47
0.67
0.73
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.71
0.25
0.88
0.83
0.50
vs Similar (16)
0.69
0.88
0.71
0.43
0.67
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Cartagena) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Cartagena
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.80
0.73
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
0.59
0.20
0.80
0.71
0.29
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.92
0.60
0.60
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Cartagena over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alcorcon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dyego Sousa30%
Jacobo González14%
Christian Borrego11%
Javier Pérez Mateo9%
Emmanuel Addai9%
Víctor García8%
Fede Vico6%
Chema4%
Juanma Bravo4%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Pedro Mosquera3%
Yan Eteki3%
Javier Lara3%
Javier Castro2%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Juan Artola0%
Óscar Rivas0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yan Eteki38%
Chema33%
Jacobo González31%
Iago López Carracedo24%
Xavier Quintilla23%
Óscar Rivas22%
Dyego Sousa22%
Alejandro López20%
Pedro Mosquera19%
Javier Pérez Mateo17%
Iker Bilbao17%
Víctor García16%
David Morillas14%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi14%
Juan Artola14%
Jean-Sylvain Babin12%
Javier Castro10%
Juanma Bravo8%
Christian Borrego8%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez7%
Fede Vico6%
Javier Lara3%
Emmanuel Addai3%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fede Vico19%
Álvaro Bustos12%
Emmanuel Addai11%
Xavier Quintilla9%
Jacobo González8%
Víctor García8%
Iago López Carracedo6%
Juanma Bravo4%
Javier Lara3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Dyego Sousa0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Christian Borrego0%
Juan Artola0%
Javier Castro0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Addai40%
Jacobo González25%
Marciano Sanca Tchami9%
Dyego Sousa9%
Víctor García5%
Juan Artola3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Christian Borrego3%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Fede Vico0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Javier Lara0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Juanma Bravo0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Javier Castro0%
FC Cartagena
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Alfredo Ortuño22%
Darío Poveda17%
Juan Carlos12%
Ivan Ayllon12%
Jose Fontán11%
Andy Rodríguez10%
Luis Muñoz9%
Juan Narváez6%
Jairo Izquierdo6%
Isak Jansson6%
Arnau Solà6%
Kiko Olivas5%
Tomás Alarcón3%
Ivan Calero3%
Hector Hevel0%
Úmaro Embaló0%
Raúl Lizoain0%
Gonzalo Verdú0%
Mikel Rico0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
David Ferreiro0%
Damián Musto0%
Marc Martínez0%
Lautaro De León0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Jonathan Carmona0%
Diego Moreno0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Tomás Alarcón37%
Damián Musto25%
Jose Fontán24%
Alfredo Ortuño22%
Pedro Alcalá22%
Ivan Calero22%
Gonzalo Verdú21%
Hector Hevel20%
Luis Muñoz18%
Isak Jansson17%
Raúl Lizoain16%
Marc Martínez14%
Andy Rodríguez14%
Arnau Ortiz14%
Mikel Rico13%
Úmaro Embaló12%
Juan Carlos12%
Arnau Solà11%
Juan Narváez6%
Darío Poveda6%
Jonathan Carmona6%
Kiko Olivas5%
Jairo Izquierdo0%
David Ferreiro0%
Lautaro De León0%
Diego Moreno0%
Ivan Ayllon0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Hector Hevel13%
Jairo Izquierdo11%
David Ferreiro11%
Ivan Calero11%
Alfredo Ortuño8%
Arnau Ortiz7%
Úmaro Embaló6%
Luis Muñoz6%
Darío Poveda6%
Isak Jansson6%
Jonathan Carmona6%
Andy Rodríguez5%
Juan Carlos4%
Tomás Alarcón3%
Juan Narváez0%
Raúl Lizoain0%
Gonzalo Verdú0%
Mikel Rico0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
Damián Musto0%
Marc Martínez0%
Arnau Solà0%
Lautaro De León0%
Jose Fontán0%
Diego Moreno0%
Ivan Ayllon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Hector Hevel13%
Alfredo Ortuño12%
Juan Carlos12%
Ivan Ayllon12%
Juan Narváez6%
Luis Muñoz6%
Tomás Alarcón6%
Isak Jansson6%
Mikel Rico3%
Úmaro Embaló0%
Jairo Izquierdo0%
Raúl Lizoain0%
Gonzalo Verdú0%
Kiko Olivas0%
Pedro Alcalá0%
David Ferreiro0%
Damián Musto0%
Ivan Calero0%
Darío Poveda0%
Marc Martínez0%
Andy Rodríguez0%
Arnau Solà0%
Lautaro De León0%
Jose Fontán0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Jonathan Carmona0%
Diego Moreno0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →