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Alexandria vs CSM Reşiţa Result & Analysis

Date: 03/05/2024
Time: 08:00
Final 2-4
Alexandria
Alexandria
Vs
31%
32%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
Romania: Liga II
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Alexandria win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa win✓ Hit
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AlexandriaAlexandria

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L01L01L01L03L11D31W00D02L04LA·CSM25/11H·ACS02/12A·CS 24/02H·TUN02/03A·CHI09/03H·MET16/03H·DUM30/03A·MET06/04H·ARG13/04A·CEA20/04
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.570.641.640.501.50
vs Stronger (12)0.501.920.602.400.431.57
vs Similar (11)0.641.180.671.000.601.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %9% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D31W00D20W01L11D01L21W10W32WA·VII30/11H·CSA24/02A·SLA02/03H·SCM09/03A·ARG16/03H·UNI30/03A·DUM06/04H·MET13/04A·ARG20/04H·CEA27/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.461.252.000.920.821.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)1.431.291.910.910.901.70
vs Weaker (3)1.671.002.501.000.001.00
Clean sheet %21% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Alexandria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%13%023%128%219%310%44%52%6+
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
64.1%
Under 1.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
35.8%
Under 2.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
44.2%
No
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.2%
0-1
11.9%
1-0
10.8%
1-2
7.5%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
6.9%
2-0
6.2%
Alexandria goals ↓
CSM Reşiţa goals →
01234
013%12%7.3%2.7%0.8%
111%15%7.5%2.8%0.8%
26.2%6.9%3.8%1.4%0.4%
32.1%2.3%1.3%0.5%0.1%
40.5%0.6%0.3%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alexandria goals (down), columns = CSM Reşiţa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Unirea Slobozia
2.07
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.79
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.76
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.76
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.76
CSM Reşiţa
1.60
Concordia
1.52
Chindia Targoviste
1.52
CS Mioveni
1.48
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.44
Csikszereda
1.38
Arges Pitesti
1.36
Metaloglobus
1.36
Slatina
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.20
Unirea Dej
1.08
Dumbrăviţa
1.08
Tunari
0.80
Alexandria
0.52
Progresul Spartac
0.16
Alexandria is 1.08 points worse than CSM Reşiţa in terms of average points per game (0.52 vs 1.60).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.96
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.60
CSM Reşiţa
1.56
Corvinul Hunedoara
1.52
SCM Gloria Buzău
1.48
Chindia Targoviste
1.40
Concordia
1.28
Unirea Slobozia
1.07
Viitorul Şelimbăr
1.07
Metaloglobus
1.04
CS Mioveni
1.03
Slatina
1.00
Arges Pitesti
1.00
Csikszereda
0.97
Tunari
0.96
Dumbrăviţa
0.88
ACS Sirineasa
0.88
Unirea Dej
0.80
Alexandria
0.60
Progresul Spartac
0.56
Alexandria is 0.96 goals worse than CSM Reşiţa in terms of goals scored per game (0.60 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Unirea Slobozia
0.48
CS Mioveni
0.69
Chindia Targoviste
0.72
Viitorul Şelimbăr
0.72
Arges Pitesti
0.80
Corvinul Hunedoara
0.93
Concordia
0.96
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.97
Csikszereda
1.00
CSA Steaua Bucureşti
1.04
Slatina
1.08
Metaloglobus
1.08
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ
1.12
Dumbrăviţa
1.24
CSM Reşiţa
1.28
ACS Sirineasa
1.44
Unirea Dej
1.48
Alexandria
1.64
Tunari
1.76
Progresul Spartac
2.60
Alexandria is 0.36 goals worse than CSM Reşiţa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.64 vs 1.28).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AlexandriaAlexandria

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D01L01L02L01L11D00D01L02LA·CSM25/11H·ACS02/12A·CS 24/02H·TUN02/03A·CHI09/03H·MET16/03H·DUM30/03A·MET06/04H·ARG13/04A·CEA20/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.170.960.091.090.250.83
vs Stronger (12)0.171.080.001.600.290.71
vs Similar (11)0.180.820.170.670.201.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D00D20W01L11D00D10W00D12LA·VII30/11H·CSA24/02A·SLA02/03H·SCM09/03A·ARG16/03H·UNI30/03A·DUM06/04H·MET13/04A·ARG20/04H·CEA27/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.620.621.000.620.180.64
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.570.620.910.550.200.70
vs Weaker (3)1.000.671.501.000.000.00
Clean sheet %46% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Alexandria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alexandria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alexandria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alexandria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AlexandriaAlexandria

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L00D00D01L10W20W00D01L02LA·CSM25/11H·ACS02/12A·CS 24/02H·TUN02/03A·CHI09/03H·MET16/03H·DUM30/03A·MET06/04H·ARG13/04A·CEA20/04
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.390.610.550.550.250.67
vs Stronger (12)0.330.830.600.800.140.86
vs Similar (11)0.450.360.500.330.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %48% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (CSM Reşiţa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D20W00D00D00D00D01L11D10W20WA·VII30/11H·CSA24/02A·SLA02/03H·SCM09/03A·ARG16/03H·UNI30/03A·DUM06/04H·MET13/04A·ARG20/04H·CEA27/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.621.000.310.641.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (21)0.860.671.000.360.701.00
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %54% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Alexandria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alexandria over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alexandria over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alexandria over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
CSM Reşiţa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.583.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (26)
€13m
CH (24)
€7m
CSI (25)
€6m
CON (26)
€5m
CT (21)
€3m
CSB (24)
€3m
SLA (23)
€3m
CR (20)
€3m
VŞ (19)
€2m
MET (15)
€1m
US (13)
€1m
DUM (15)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (11)
€4m
CH (12)
€3m
CSI (12)
€2m
CON (11)
€2m
CT (8)
€2m
SLA (10)
€1m
CSB (8)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
CR (9)
€1m
MET (5)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (6)
€3m
CON (6)
€1m
CSI (4)
€1m
CSB (6)
€1m
CH (2)
€1m
US (4)
€0m
DUM (4)
€0m
CR (4)
€0m
CT (2)
€0m
MET (3)
€0m
VŞ (3)
€0m
SLA (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AP (9)
€6m
CH (10)
€3m
CSI (9)
€3m
SLA (9)
€1m
CR (7)
€1m
CSB (10)
€1m
CT (11)
€1m
CON (9)
€1m
VŞ (8)
€1m
DUM (8)
€1m
MET (7)
€1m
US (5)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ALE wins
0
Draws
1
CR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Alexandria vs CSM Reşiţa · H/A from ALE
DateH/AGameScore
25/11/23ACSM Reşiţa Vs ALE3-1

AlexandriaAlexandria

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/04/24ACeahlăul Piatra Neamţ Vs ALE4-0
13/04/24HALE Vs Arges Pitesti0-2
06/04/24AMetaloglobus Vs ALE0-0
30/03/24HALE Vs Dumbrăviţa3-1
16/03/24HALE Vs Metaloglobus1-1
09/03/24AChindia Targoviste Vs ALE3-0
02/03/24HALE Vs Tunari0-1
24/02/24ACS Mioveni Vs ALE1-0
02/12/23HALE Vs ACS Sirineasa0-1
25/11/23ACSM Reşiţa Vs ALE3-1

CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
27/04/24HCR Vs Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ3-2
20/04/24AArges Pitesti Vs CR0-1
13/04/24HCR Vs Metaloglobus2-1
06/04/24ADumbrăviţa Vs CR1-0
30/03/24HCR Vs Unirea Dej1-1
16/03/24AArges Pitesti Vs CR1-0
09/03/24HCR Vs SCM Gloria Buzău2-0
02/03/24ASlatina Vs CR0-0
24/02/24HCR Vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti3-1
30/11/23AViitorul Şelimbăr Vs CR2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Alexandria
Alexandria
Romania: Liga II
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLL0.57
HomeLLDWL0.45
AwayLLLDL0.67
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %13%9%17%
AVG goals2.132.272.00
Over 1.5 %57%64%50%
Over 2.5 %35%36%33%
Over 3.5 %26%27%25%
Scored0.570.640.50
Conceded1.571.641.50
BTTS30%36%25%
Clean Sheet9%0%17%
Corners---
Cards---
CSM Reşiţa
CSM Reşiţa
Romania: Liga II
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWW1.54
HomeWWDWW2.15
AwayDDLLW0.82
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%62%18%
AVG goals2.712.922.45
Over 1.5 %75%85%64%
Over 2.5 %50%54%45%
Over 3.5 %38%38%36%
Scored1.462.000.82
Conceded1.250.921.64
BTTS58%69%45%
Clean Sheet21%23%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Unirea SloboziaUnirea Slobozia2960
62%
2.1
3114+17
1.6
41%
17%
7%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.10.5
-
2Corvinul HunedoaraCorvinul Hunedoara2952
52%
1.8
4427+17
2.4
79%
52%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3131.50.9
-
3SCM Gloria BuzăuSCM Gloria Buzău2951
48%
1.8
4328+15
2.4
66%
38%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
4Viitorul ŞelimbărViitorul Şelimbăr2951
45%
1.8
3121+10
1.8
48%
41%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.10.7
-
5CSA Steaua BucureştiCSA Steaua Bucureşti2544
48%
1.8
4926+23
3.0
76%
44%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.01.0
-
6CS MioveniCS Mioveni2943
38%
1.5
3020+10
1.7
52%
21%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.00.7
-
7CSM ReşiţaCSM Reşiţa2540
44%
1.6
3932+7
2.8
76%
52%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.61.3
-
8CsikszeredaCsikszereda2940
38%
1.4
2829-1
2.0
62%
31%
10%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2131.01.0
-
9Chindia TargovisteChindia Targoviste2538
40%
1.5
3518+17
2.1
68%
36%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2011.40.7
-
10ConcordiaConcordia2538
40%
1.5
3224+8
2.2
64%
32%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2111.31.0
-
11Ceahlăul Piatra NeamţCeahlăul Piatra Neamţ2536
40%
1.4
4028+12
2.7
84%
52%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
12Arges PitestiArges Pitesti2534
36%
1.4
2520+5
1.8
60%
16%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.00.8
-
13MetaloglobusMetaloglobus2534
32%
1.4
2627-1
2.1
72%
32%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.01.1
-
14SlatinaSlatina2532
32%
1.3
2527-2
2.1
64%
40%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.01.1
-
15ACS SirineasaACS Sirineasa2530
28%
1.2
2236-14
2.3
76%
44%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.4
-
16DumbrăviţaDumbrăviţa2527
28%
1.1
2231-9
2.1
68%
24%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.2
-
17Unirea DejUnirea Dej2527
32%
1.1
2037-17
2.3
56%
32%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.5
-
18TunariTunari2520
16%
0.8
2444-20
2.7
76%
52%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
19AlexandriaAlexandria2513
12%
0.5
1541-26
2.2
56%
36%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.61.6
-
20Progresul SpartacProgresul Spartac254
4%
0.2
1465-51
3.2
76%
68%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.6
-
Romania: Liga II 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Romania: Liga II stats & trends →

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