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Alloa vs Inverness CT Result & Analysis

Date: 19/12/2020
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
A
Alloa
Vs
25%
26%
49%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Alloa win✓ Hit
25.1%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.61
Edge
-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.60
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT win✗ Miss
48.6%
Avg Implied 48.7% · @ 1.90
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

A
Alloa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L00D20W01L14L33D02L03L02L10WH·AYR29/02A·DUN03/03H·INV07/03A·MOR17/10H·DUN24/10H·DUN06/11A·QUE21/11A·HEA24/11H·AYR05/12A·ARB12/12
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.671.001.731.271.60
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (25)1.161.681.001.851.331.50
vs Weaker (4)1.251.251.001.001.501.50
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-332W02L31W13L11D31W12L20W30W22DH·MOR03/03A·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03A·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.471.201.671.131.271.27
vs Stronger (25)1.481.081.581.081.381.08
vs Similar (5)1.401.802.001.330.502.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.7%
Under 1.5
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.0%
@ 1.82+2.5%
Under 2.5
46.0%
@ 1.93-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.7%
Under 3.5
68.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.7%
0-2
8.3%
0-0
7.0%
2-1 ✓
6.6%
1-0
5.6%
2-2
5.5%
Alloa goals ↓
Inverness CT goals →
01234
07.0%8.7%8.3%4.6%2.0%
15.6%13%9.6%5.4%2.3%
23.9%6.6%5.5%3.1%1.3%
31.5%2.5%2.1%1.2%0.5%
40.4%0.7%0.6%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa goals (down), columns = Inverness CT goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.11
Dundee
1.67
Raith Rvs
1.59
Dunfermline
1.44
Inverness CT
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.19
Arbroath
1.11
Morton
1.07
Ayr
1.07
Alloa
0.81
Alloa is 0.52 points worse than Inverness CT in terms of average points per game (0.81 vs 1.33).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Heart Of Midlothian
2.33
Dundee
1.81
Raith Rvs
1.67
Dunfermline
1.41
Queen of Sth
1.41
Inverness CT
1.33
Ayr
1.15
Alloa
1.11
Arbroath
1.04
Morton
0.81
Alloa is 0.22 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Heart Of Midlothian
0.89
Inverness CT
1.15
Morton
1.22
Dunfermline
1.26
Arbroath
1.26
Raith Rvs
1.33
Ayr
1.37
Dundee
1.48
Queen of Sth
1.89
Alloa
2.22
Alloa is 1.07 goals worse than Inverness CT in terms of goals conceded per game (2.22 vs 1.15).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

A
Alloa

For 3.6 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.0

ðŸšĐ Corners

140144734410410835535111355117141411108128A·ARBH·AYRA·HEAA·QUEH·DUNH·DUNA·MORH·INVA·DUNH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.6

ðŸŸĻ Cards

60112512314111211365105203A·ARBH·AYRA·HEAA·QUEH·DUNH·DUNA·MORH·INVA·DUNH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 14.4 · Total 24.8

⚠ïļ Fouls

37051991524134181720131261911131184724243722372525241911A·ARBH·AYRA·HEAA·QUEH·DUNH·DUNA·MORH·INVA·DUNH·AYR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Inverness CTInverness CT

For 4.9 · Against 4.4 · Total 9.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

1504318655442876664534279119615121086H·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUNH·QUEA·ALLH·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9

ðŸŸĻ Cards

6042111112131131111126223144223H·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUNH·QUEA·ALLH·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 9.6 · Total 19.7

⚠ïļ Fouls

25012136412714111013107811106131161325101925231719162419H·DUNA·QUEH·RAIA·HEAH·ARBH·AYRA·DUNH·QUEA·ALLH·MOR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Alloa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.812.211.42.52.32.720.820.421.2
vs Stronger (1)7.0-7.06.0-6.037.0-37.0
vs Similar (43)11.912.311.62.42.12.620.520.121.0
vs Weaker (6)11.712.011.32.73.71.720.222.717.7
% over line70%71%69%26%21%31%40%38%42%
% under line30%29%31%74%79%69%60%62%58%
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)11.311.411.23.12.83.320.318.921.5
vs Stronger (41)11.511.911.23.23.13.320.619.321.6
vs Similar (9)10.29.811.02.32.03.018.817.721.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line70%71%69%30%21%38%42%29%54%
% under line30%29%31%70%79%62%58%71%46%
This opponent (Alloa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Alloa
11.8
Inverness CT
11.3
Morton
11.0
Queen of Sth
10.8
Heart Of Midlothian
10.7
Dunfermline
10.5
Ayr
10.4
Dundee
10.2
Raith Rvs
10.0
Arbroath
10.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Heart Of Midlothian
4.3
Dundee
3.5
Raith Rvs
3.5
Arbroath
3.4
Dunfermline
3.3
Ayr
3.2
Inverness CT
3.1
Morton
3.0
Queen of Sth
2.9
Alloa
2.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Heart Of Midlothian
27.4
Dundee
24.1
Ayr
21.9
Raith Rvs
21.7
Arbroath
21.6
Alloa
20.8
Dunfermline
20.5
Morton
20.4
Inverness CT
20.3
Queen of Sth
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
67.7%
Under 9.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.5%
Under 3.5
69.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
50.8%
Under 21.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D20W01L11D10W01L03L01L00DH·AYR29/02A·DUN03/03H·INV07/03A·MOR17/10H·DUN24/10H·DUN06/11A·QUE21/11A·HEA24/11H·AYR05/12A·ARB12/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.000.530.930.731.07
vs Stronger (1)0.003.00--0.003.00
vs Similar (25)0.601.000.460.920.751.08
vs Weaker (4)1.000.501.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L10W11D00D01L00D10W10W01LH·MOR03/03A·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03A·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.400.600.400.730.40
vs Stronger (25)0.720.360.670.420.770.31
vs Similar (5)0.400.600.330.330.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D00D03L23L01L00D01L10WH·AYR29/02A·DUN03/03H·INV07/03A·MOR17/10H·DUN24/10H·DUN06/11A·QUE21/11A·HEA24/11H·AYR05/12A·ARB12/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.670.470.800.530.53
vs Stronger (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.560.680.540.920.580.42
vs Weaker (4)0.250.750.000.000.501.50
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Inverness CT) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Inverness CTInverness CT

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D00D21W02L11D30W12L10W20W21WH·MOR03/03A·ALL07/03H·QUE10/03A·DUN17/10H·AYR24/10H·ARB31/10A·HEA07/11H·RAI21/11A·QUE04/12H·DUN12/12
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.801.070.730.530.87
vs Stronger (25)0.760.720.920.670.620.77
vs Similar (5)1.001.201.671.000.001.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inverness CT over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards93.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards85.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls79.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.578.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners78.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (30)
€22m
DUN (21)
€5m
DUN (26)
€4m
MOR (14)
€1m
ARB (15)
€1m
IC (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€12m
DUN (9)
€2m
DUN (7)
€1m
MOR (4)
€0m
IC (3)
€0m
ARB (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (6)
€4m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (4)
€0m
MOR (4)
€0m
ARB (5)
€0m
IC (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HOM (12)
€6m
DUN (7)
€2m
DUN (13)
€2m
MOR (6)
€0m
ARB (7)
€0m
IC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
1
ALL wins
4
Draws
3
IC wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Alloa vs Inverness CT · H/A from ALL
DateH/AGameScore
07/03/20HALL Vs Inverness CT2-0
01/02/20AInverness CT Vs ALL1-1
30/11/19HALL Vs Inverness CT0-2
19/10/19AInverness CT Vs ALL2-2
27/04/19HALL Vs Inverness CT1-2
26/03/19AInverness CT Vs ALL3-2
27/10/18HALL Vs Inverness CT0-0
25/08/18AInverness CT Vs ALL2-2

A
Alloa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/12/20AArbroath Vs ALL0-1
05/12/20HALL Vs Ayr0-2
24/11/20AHeart Of Midlothian Vs ALL3-0
21/11/20AQueen of Sth Vs ALL2-0
06/11/20HALL Vs Dundee3-3
24/10/20HALL Vs Dunfermline1-4
17/10/20AMorton Vs ALL1-0
07/03/20HALL Vs Inverness CT2-0
03/03/20ADundee Vs ALL0-0
29/02/20HALL Vs Ayr0-2

Inverness CTInverness CT

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/12/20HIC Vs Dundee2-2
04/12/20AQueen of Sth Vs IC0-3
21/11/20HIC Vs Raith Rvs2-0
07/11/20AHeart Of Midlothian Vs IC2-1
31/10/20HIC Vs Arbroath3-1
24/10/20HIC Vs Ayr1-1
17/10/20ADunfermline Vs IC3-1
10/03/20HIC Vs Queen of Sth3-1
07/03/20AAlloa Vs IC2-0
03/03/20HIC Vs Morton3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

A
Alloa
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.02
HomeLWLDL0.96
AwayDLLLW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.702.462.92
Over 1.5 %80%75%85%
Over 2.5 %50%38%62%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored1.080.881.27
Conceded1.621.581.65
BTTS58%42%73%
Clean Sheet18%25%12%
Corners11.8012.2511.38
Cards2.482.292.65
Inverness CT
Inverness CT
Scotland: Championship
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWD1.66
HomeWDWWD1.83
AwayWLLLW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%54%46%
AVG goals2.642.712.58
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %52%50%54%
Over 3.5 %28%33%23%
Scored1.461.621.31
Conceded1.181.081.27
BTTS48%50%46%
Clean Sheet36%38%35%
Corners11.2611.3811.15
Cards3.082.833.31

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Heart Of MidlothianHeart Of Midlothian2757
63%
2.1
6324+39
3.2
78%
59%
41%
10.1
56%
3.0
41%
25.5
74%
22
12462.30.9
-
2DundeeDundee2745
44%
1.7
4940+9
3.3
89%
63%
44%
10.5
67%
3.0
33%
24.7
67%
5
1221.81.5
-
3
RR
Raith Rvs
2743
44%
1.6
4536+9
3.0
70%
56%
44%
11.2
67%
4.5
74%
23.7
74%
0
0001.71.3
-
4DunfermlineDunfermline2739
37%
1.4
3834+4
2.7
59%
48%
37%
11.1
81%
2.9
33%
22.0
52%
4
2021.41.3
-
5Inverness CTInverness CT2736
30%
1.3
3631+5
2.5
78%
44%
26%
10.4
48%
3.5
48%
24.0
63%
1
0001.31.1
-
6
QO
Queen of Sth
2732
33%
1.2
3851-13
3.3
85%
59%
41%
10.3
56%
3.5
48%
21.8
56%
0
0001.41.9
-
7ArbroathArbroath2730
26%
1.1
2834-6
2.3
59%
37%
26%
9.2
56%
3.4
52%
24.5
67%
1
0001.01.3
-
8
A
Ayr
2729
22%
1.1
3137-6
2.5
74%
41%
30%
10.5
63%
3.1
48%
22.2
52%
0
0001.11.4
-
9MortonMorton2729
22%
1.1
2233-11
2.0
59%
30%
19%
10.4
70%
3.0
41%
22.1
48%
1
0000.81.2
-
10
A
Alloa
2722
19%
0.8
3060-30
3.3
89%
67%
41%
10.6
59%
3.4
56%
26.0
78%
0
0001.12.2
-
Scotland: Championship 2020/21 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: Championship stats & trends →

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