Almere City FC are the clear favourite, with the model assigning a 66% chance to a home win, 20% to a draw and 14% to a Jong Ajax victory. The prediction favours a 2-1 scoreline, the most likely outcome at 9.6%. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively match, and the most probable total of three goals carries a 22% probability. Almere’s home form is solid, scoring 1.92 and conceding 1.23 against similar opposition, while Jong Ajax’s away record is weaker, 1.13 scored and 2.13 conceded. The model’s selections echo this imbalance: Away under 2.5 HT goals99.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals98.5% with a 5% edge, Away under 3.5 goals97.8% with a 6% edge, Under 7.597.6% with a 4% edge, Home +2 handicap94.7% with a 2% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals94.5% with a 9% edge, Under 6.593.9% with a 5% edge, and Away under 1.5 HT goals93.8% with a 6% edge. Almere’s recent three-game winning run, capped by a 4-1 win over De Graafschap, underlines their advantage at home.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Almere City FC win
66.1%
Avg Implied 63.2% · @ 1.46
Edge
+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
1.50
Dafabet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Bet365
1.48
Draw
19.6%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 4.86
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Pinnacle
5.03
Betano
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Jong Ajax win
14.3%
Avg Implied 17.8% · @ 5.21
Edge
-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
5.60
Superbet
5.60
Pinnacle
5.39
Marathonbet
5.35
1xBet
5.33
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Almere City FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.10
1.53
2.00
1.29
2.19
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
2.07
1.52
1.92
1.23
2.19
1.75
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
2.03
1.71
1.93
1.12
2.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
2.08
1.36
2.00
1.13
2.13
vs Weaker (4)
2.50
1.75
3.00
1.67
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.6%
@ 1.05-1.8%
Under 1.5
13.4%
@ 8.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Under
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
BetVictor
8.50
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
7.80
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.8%
@ 1.25-7.7%
Under 2.5
33.2%
@ 3.64+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Pinnacle
1.26
Under
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Pinnacle
3.79
Marathonbet
3.70
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.0%
@ 1.67-11.0%
Under 3.5
55.0%
@ 2.12+11.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Superbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Under
Marathonbet
2.21
Pinnacle
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.15
Betano
2.15
Both teams to score
Yes
59.9%
@ 1.36-7.9%
No
40.1%
@ 2.88+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.38
William Hil
1.36
No
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.94
William Hil
2.90
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.6%@ 8.29+4.1%
2-0
9.2%@ 11.46+5.2%
1-1
8.9%@ 10.63+4.6%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.72+3.0%
3-0
7.3%@ 13.03+3.8%
1-0
6.9%@ 13.47+3.5%
2-2
5.1%@ 11.53+1.1%
4-1
4.6%@ 14.09+1.3%
Almere City FC goals ↓
Jong Ajax goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
2.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.2%
1
6.9%
8.9%
4.2%
1.5%
0.4%
2
9.2%
9.6%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
7.3%
7.7%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
4
4.3%
4.6%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Almere City FC goals (down), columns = Jong Ajax goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
De Graafschap
1.60
Almere City FC
1.55
Heracles
1.53
NAC Breda
1.50
FC Volendam
1.50
Jong PSV U21
1.47
Vitesse
1.47
Waalwijk
1.45
Roda
1.43
Den Bosch
1.27
Dordrecht
1.24
FC Eindhoven
1.24
Jong Utrecht
1.21
Emmen
1.18
VVV Venlo
1.18
FC OSS
1.16
Jong AZ
1.05
Helmond Sport
1.03
MVV
1.00
Jong Ajax
0.92
Almere City FC is 0.62 points better than Jong Ajax in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 0.92).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Almere City FC
2.02
De Graafschap
1.93
Waalwijk
1.76
Heracles
1.74
Jong PSV U21
1.74
NAC Breda
1.71
Vitesse
1.68
Den Bosch
1.68
Jong AZ
1.61
Emmen
1.53
Jong Utrecht
1.53
Roda
1.52
FC Volendam
1.50
FC OSS
1.42
FC Eindhoven
1.34
VVV Venlo
1.32
Jong Ajax
1.32
Dordrecht
1.26
Helmond Sport
1.11
MVV
1.08
Almere City FC is 0.71 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals scored per game (2.02 vs 1.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Roda
1.40
Heracles
1.44
Vitesse
1.45
NAC Breda
1.47
Dordrecht
1.47
FC Volendam
1.50
Waalwijk
1.50
VVV Venlo
1.53
De Graafschap
1.57
Almere City FC
1.61
Jong Utrecht
1.63
Helmond Sport
1.63
Jong PSV U21
1.68
FC OSS
1.68
FC Eindhoven
1.82
Den Bosch
1.88
Emmen
1.89
MVV
1.92
Jong Ajax
1.92
Jong AZ
2.00
Almere City FC is 0.31 goals better than Jong Ajax in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
De Graafschap
56%
Jong AZ
54%
Roda
52%
Emmen
52%
Jong PSV U21
52%
Jong Ajax
52%
Waalwijk
50%
VVV Venlo
49%
Helmond Sport
49%
Dordrecht
48%
Almere City FC
48%
Jong Utrecht
48%
Den Bosch
47%
Vitesse
46%
FC Eindhoven
44%
MVV
44%
FC OSS
43%
Almere City FC is 3.6 percentage points worse than Jong Ajax in terms of average possession (48% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Almere City FC
For 5.2 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 0.9 · Total 2.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 7.7 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Jong Ajax
For 4.3 · Against 6.6 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.3 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almere City FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.5
10.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
20.8
20.7
20.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
11.2
11.6
10.9
2.5
2.6
2.4
20.5
20.8
20.3
vs Weaker (2)
9.0
10.0
8.0
4.0
3.0
5.0
25.5
19.0
32.0
% over line
66%
67%
65%
32%
33%
31%
45%
43%
48%
% under line
34%
33%
35%
68%
67%
69%
55%
57%
52%
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.2
3.5
3.6
3.4
25.0
25.5
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.3
10.4
10.2
3.5
3.6
3.4
24.7
25.4
24.2
vs Weaker (7)
11.9
12.4
10.5
3.7
3.6
4.0
26.3
26.0
27.0
% over line
62%
56%
68%
52%
60%
44%
68%
68%
68%
% under line
38%
44%
32%
48%
40%
56%
32%
32%
32%
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Den Bosch
12.2
FC OSS
11.9
De Graafschap
11.9
Dordrecht
11.3
VVV Venlo
11.2
Almere City FC
11.0
Heracles
10.9
Helmond Sport
10.7
Jong PSV U21
10.6
Jong AZ
10.6
FC Eindhoven
10.6
Jong Ajax
10.5
Emmen
10.3
FC Volendam
10.3
MVV
10.2
Vitesse
10.0
Waalwijk
10.0
Roda
9.9
NAC Breda
9.8
Jong Utrecht
9.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Vitesse
4.5
Dordrecht
4.3
FC OSS
4.1
Emmen
3.9
NAC Breda
3.9
Jong Ajax
3.8
Den Bosch
3.7
VVV Venlo
3.5
Heracles
3.5
Jong AZ
3.5
FC Volendam
3.4
Roda
3.3
Helmond Sport
3.3
Waalwijk
3.3
De Graafschap
3.3
Jong PSV U21
3.2
MVV
3.2
FC Eindhoven
3.1
Jong Utrecht
3.0
Almere City FC
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
FC OSS
29.0
Vitesse
26.7
Dordrecht
25.8
Emmen
25.7
Jong Utrecht
25.5
Helmond Sport
25.4
Jong Ajax
25.0
Roda
24.8
Heracles
24.1
Jong PSV U21
23.8
VVV Venlo
23.7
Jong AZ
23.4
Den Bosch
23.3
NAC Breda
22.9
FC Eindhoven
22.9
De Graafschap
22.7
MVV
22.5
Waalwijk
22.4
FC Volendam
22.3
Almere City FC
20.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
61.6%
@ 1.45-1.9%
Under 9.5
38.4%
@ 2.51+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Betano
2.65
Pinnacle
2.55
Marathonbet
2.50
1xBet
2.43
Unibet
2.43
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
64.8%
Under 21.5
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Almere City FC or Draw
85.7%
Avg Implied 82.4% · @ 1.13
Edge
+3.3%
66%
20%
14%
covers Almere City FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betfair
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Almere City FC or Jong Ajax
80.4%
Avg Implied 81.3% · @ 1.15
Edge
-0.9%
66%
20%
14%
covers Almere City FC + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Draw or Jong Ajax
33.9%
Avg Implied 36.3% · @ 2.57
Edge
-2.4%
66%
20%
14%
covers Draw + Jong Ajax
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
William Hil
2.60
Superbet
2.60
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Almere City FC over/under 0.5
Over
90.8%
@ 1.04+0.5%
Under
9.2%
@ 9.72-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Under
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
10.50
Betfair
10.00
Superbet
9.10
Betano
8.00
Almere City FC over/under 1.5
Over
68.9%
@ 1.28-3.4%
Under
31.1%
@ 3.35+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.33
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Under
Pinnacle
3.58
BetVictor
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Almere City FC over/under 2.5
Over
42.7%
@ 1.91-5.9%
Under
57.3%
@ 1.81+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.94
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.90
Under
Marathonbet
1.88
Pinnacle
1.86
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Almere City FC over/under 3.5
Over
21.9%
@ 3.28-6.4%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.29+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.46
Bet365
3.40
10Bet
3.30
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5
Over
65.1%
@ 1.28-7.4%
Under
34.9%
@ 3.37+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
Marathonbet
3.48
Bet365
3.40
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5
Over
28.3%
@ 2.37-10.8%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.52+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Under
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
BetVictor
1.55
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
@ 5.38-8.3%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.12+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
Superbet
5.80
10Bet
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Marathonbet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
Jong Ajax over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
@ 13.17-5.0%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.03+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Almere City FC, so a minus line means Almere City FC give that many goals of a start and Jong Ajax receive them. At -1, Almere City FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Almere City FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Almere City FC)
Almere City FC -2
25.0%
@ 3.49-0.6%
Draw -2
19.6%
@ 4.47-0.4%
Jong Ajax +2
55.3%
@ 1.65+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.20
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.30
Unibet
3.30
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Away
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.67
Bet365
1.67
10Bet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Handicap -1 (Almere City FC)
Almere City FC -1
44.7%
@ 2.09+1.8%
Draw -1
21.5%
@ 3.98-1.0%
Jong Ajax +1
33.9%
@ 2.58-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Unibet
2.02
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.75
Away
10Bet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.58
Handicap +1 (Almere City FC)
Almere City FC +1
85.7%
@ 1.13+7.3%
Draw +1
9.0%
@ 6.95-3.7%
Jong Ajax -1
5.3%
@ 10.01-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Unibet
1.09
Draw
Unibet
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
12.00
Bet365
10.00
Marathonbet
6.05
Handicap +2 (Almere City FC)
Almere City FC +2
94.7%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Draw +2
3.8%
@ 15.00-2.4%
Jong Ajax -2
1.5%
@ 27.00-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Away
Betfair
31.00
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Almere City FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.71
0.79
0.56
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.62
0.86
0.69
0.77
0.56
0.94
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.87
0.86
0.86
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.54
0.92
0.73
1.00
0.40
0.87
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
1.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.6%
@ 1.15-6.1%
Under 0.5
25.4%
@ 4.83+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.6%
@ 1.77-12.8%
Under 1.5
60.4%
@ 1.96+12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.85
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Under
SBO
2.08
Pinnacle
2.06
Marathonbet
1.98
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.95
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.2%
@ 3.43-10.8%
Under 2.5
83.8%
@ 1.27+10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.50
Betano
3.45
Superbet
3.40
Under
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
64.0%
@ 1.36-4.1%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.90+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Unibet
1.32
Under
Unibet
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Superbet
2.92
1xBet
2.85
Betano
2.80
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
26.3%
@ 2.72-7.8%
Under
73.7%
@ 1.41+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.82
Marathonbet
2.76
Pinnacle
2.75
1xBet
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.5%
@ 6.50-8.8%
Under
94.5%
@ 1.08+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.80
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.40
Superbet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.8%
@ 2.09-9.6%
Under
65.2%
@ 1.67+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.17
Pinnacle
2.13
10Bet
2.10
Unibet
2.10
Betano
2.07
Under
Pinnacle
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.9%
@ 6.52-8.3%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.08+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.90
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.5%
@ 20.67-4.1%
Under
99.5%
@ 1.01+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Almere City FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.67
1.29
0.50
1.62
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.45
0.66
1.23
0.46
1.62
0.81
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Jong Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Jong Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.17
0.86
1.07
0.75
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.69
1.15
0.64
1.00
0.73
1.27
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.25
1.67
1.33
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Almere City FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
84.7%
@ 1.08-2.0%
Under 0.5
15.3%
@ 7.02+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Under
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
7.30
Betano
6.90
William Hil
6.50
Superbet
6.40
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
53.9%
@ 1.44-10.2%
Under 1.5
46.1%
@ 2.58+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Unibet
1.47
Betano
1.44
William Hil
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Under
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.69
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.62
William Hil
2.50
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.9%
@ 2.40-11.9%
Under 2.5
73.1%
@ 1.52+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.45
Superbet
2.45
1xBet
2.32
Under
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Almere City FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
72.6%
@ 1.23-2.7%
Under
27.4%
@ 3.76+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Under
10Bet
3.80
Betano
3.80
1xBet
3.80
Superbet
3.65
Almere City FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
36.3%
@ 2.09-8.1%
Under
63.7%
@ 1.67+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Marathonbet
2.04
Under
Betano
1.72
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Superbet
1.63
Almere City FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
12.5%
@ 4.42-8.4%
Under
87.5%
@ 1.17+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.55
1xBet
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.15
Under
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Jong Ajax over/under 0.5 2H
Over
42.8%
@ 1.76-9.9%
Under
57.2%
@ 1.96+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.77
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.94
Superbet
1.88
Jong Ajax over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.8%
@ 4.72-9.8%
Under
90.2%
@ 1.15+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.00
1xBet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Betano
4.35
Under
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
Jong Ajax over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
@ 12.92-5.8%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.02+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.5%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.0%
Under 7.5
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
+4.6%
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
1.03
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-
+4.4%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.5%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-
+8.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
+8.3%
Under 6.5
93.9%
1.08
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
+6.9%
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Betfair
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
+8.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
90.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Betfair
1.03
+0.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.2%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Marathonbet
1.15
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
+9.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.5%
1.17
Betano
1.21
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.15
-
+8.4%
Under 5.5
86.6%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Betfair
1.20
+9.0%
Over 1.5
86.6%
1.05
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-1.8%
Home or Draw
85.7%
1.13
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Betfair
1.14
William Hil
1.14
+3.3%
Home +1 handicap
85.7%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
Betfair
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Unibet
1.09
-
+7.3%
Over 0.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.08
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
-2.0%
Under 5.5 cards
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.8%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
+10.8%
Home or Away
80.4%
1.15
William Hil
1.18
Betano
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
-0.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
78.1%
1.29
Betano
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+6.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.6%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
-6.1%
Under 4.5
73.7%
1.48
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
10Bet
1.48
+10.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
73.7%
1.41
Pinnacle
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.41
Betano
1.40
+7.8%
Over 8.5 corners
73.2%
1.25
Unibet
1.29
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
-
+0.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.1%
1.52
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
+11.9%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
72.6%
1.23
Superbet
1.24
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
10Bet
1.22
-
-2.7%
Away under 1.5 goals
71.7%
1.52
Betfair
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
BetVictor
1.55
+10.8%
Under 4.5 cards
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Almere City FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ferdy Druijf100%
Emanuel Poku50%
Byron Burgering33%
Enzo Cornelisse25%
Marley Dors25%
Mees Hoedemakers0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Bas Huisman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mees Hoedemakers25%
Enzo Cornelisse25%
Emmanuel van de Blaak25%
Hamza El Dahri25%
Marley Dors25%
Ferdy Druijf0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Byron Burgering0%
Wessel Speel0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Emanuel Poku0%
Bas Huisman0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ferdy Druijf50%
Enzo Cornelisse50%
Marley Dors50%
Byron Burgering33%
Mees Hoedemakers25%
Emanuel Poku25%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Bas Huisman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ferdy Druijf75%
Byron Burgering33%
Emanuel Poku25%
Mees Hoedemakers0%
Damian van Bruggen0%
Teun Bijleveld0%
Joey Jacobs0%
Wessel Speel0%
Enzo Cornelisse0%
Emmanuel van de Blaak0%
Hamza El Dahri0%
Jereno van Gom0%
Marley Dors0%
Bas Huisman0%
Jong Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emre Ünüvar80%
Diego Pugno60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Jano Monserrate0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Levi Acheampong0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Diego Pugno40%
Jano Monserrate40%
Marvyn Muzungu40%
Jinairo Johnson33%
Avery Appiah25%
Pharrel Nash20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Levi Acheampong40%
Mohamed Abdalla25%
Diego Pugno20%
Jano Monserrate20%
Pharrel Nash20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Emre Ünüvar0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Jeshurun Simeon0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emre Ünüvar60%
Pharrel Nash40%
Jano Monserrate20%
Jeshurun Simeon20%
Levi Acheampong20%
Joeri Heerkens0%
Avery Appiah0%
Diego Pugno0%
Mylo van der Lans0%
Jinairo Johnson0%
Marvyn Muzungu0%
Tijn Peters0%
Sinclair de Falco0%
Mark Verkuijl0%
Leroy Frankel0%
Mohamed Abdalla0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (24)
€19m
NB (23)
€10m
ACF (27)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
ROD (17)
€8m
WAA (22)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
JPU (14)
€7m
FV (20)
€6m
DG (21)
€6m
DOR (21)
€6m
DB (17)
€5m
JA (19)
€5m
EMM (21)
€5m
MVV (21)
€4m
HS (16)
€4m
VV (19)
€4m
FO (17)
€4m
FE (16)
€3m
JU (8)
€2m
Almere City FC's squad is €9m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€10m vs €19m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ACF (10)
€5m
JA (7)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
WAA (8)
€3m
DB (7)
€3m
DOR (8)
€2m
JA (7)
€2m
FV (6)
€2m
DG (8)
€2m
FE (8)
€2m
HS (5)
€2m
MVV (8)
€1m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
JPU (4)
€1m
FO (5)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Almere City FC and Jong Ajax have a similar attack value (both €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (6)
€3m
JPU (3)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
ACF (5)
€2m
DOR (5)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
ROD (4)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
MVV (4)
€1m
FV (3)
€1m
JA (4)
€1m
DB (3)
€1m
HS (5)
€1m
FO (3)
€1m
WAA (3)
€1m
JU (2)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
FE (2)
€0m
VV (3)
€0m
Almere City FC's midfield is €1m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
JA (11)
€12m
NB (10)
€4m
WAA (11)
€3m
HER (11)
€3m
FV (11)
€3m
ACF (12)
€3m
JPU (7)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
ROD (6)
€2m
FO (9)
€2m
JA (8)
€2m
DOR (8)
€2m
HS (6)
€2m
MVV (9)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
DB (7)
€1m
FE (6)
€1m
JU (3)
€1m
Almere City FC's defence is €9m less valuable than Jong Ajax's (€3m vs €12m).
Netherlands: Eerste Divisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eerste Divisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Heracles
MVV
VVV Venlo
Emmen
Jong PSV U21
Vitesse
Roda
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
Jong AZ
Waalwijk
Den Bosch
Dordrecht
FC OSS
FC Eindhoven
Helmond Sport
De Graafschap
Jong Utrecht