PythiaFootballBETA
Almere City FC and Willem II face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 36 % for a home victory, 26 % for a draw, and 38 % for an away win, making the latter the most likely outcome. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, yet the most probable total is two, with a 23 % chance. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, carrying an 11.8 % probability.
Almere City, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. Willem II, playing away against a similar side, averages 1.91 goals scored and 0.82 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 5.5 cards at 87.6 %, Over 1.5 at 82.8 % (miss), Over 8.5 corners at 76.2 %, Under 25.5 fouls at 76.1 %, Under 4.5 cards at 75.3 %, and Over 19.5 fouls at 71.2 %. The recent form shows Almere on a two-game winning run after a 3-0 win over Vitesse, while Willem II has returned from two straight defeats, losing 1-4 to NEC Nijmegen.
Almere City FC’s recent form, a two-game winning streak, looked promising at home, yet Willem II, still on a two-straight defeat run, managed to secure the victory. The final score was 0-1, an away win that matched the model’s prediction. The model had named an away win as the favourite with a 38 % probability, and that call was correct. The expected total of 3.1 goals was far from the actual one-goal tally. The only suggested pick was Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.8 % probability, which missed as the match finished with a single goal.
Almere City FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.30 | 1.67 | 2.33 | 1.20 | 2.27 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 2.29 | 1.68 | 2.29 | 1.14 | 2.29 | 2.21 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.50 | 1.50 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
Willem II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 0.97 | 1.71 | 1.06 | 1.92 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 1.81 | 0.96 | 1.75 | 1.06 | 1.91 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Willem II goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 12% | 8.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Almere City FCWillem IIAlmere City FC| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 11.0 | 11.5 | 10.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 21.0 | 20.4 | 21.6 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 11.0 | - | 11.0 | 3.5 | - | 3.5 | 24.5 | - | 24.5 |
| vs Similar (46) | 11.1 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 20.6 | 20.5 | 20.7 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 9.0 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 25.5 | 19.0 | 32.0 |
| % over line | 62% | 65% | 59% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 51% | 43% | 59% |
| % under line | 38% | 35% | 41% | 70% | 69% | 71% | 49% | 57% | 41% |
Willem II| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 22.5 | 23.6 | 21.3 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 | 24.0 | - | 24.0 |
| vs Similar (45) | 10.8 | 10.7 | 10.9 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 22.4 | 23.6 | 21.1 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 11.2 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 21.5 |
| % over line | 60% | 60% | 61% | 36% | 35% | 38% | 56% | 68% | 43% |
| % under line | 40% | 40% | 39% | 64% | 65% | 62% | 44% | 32% | 57% |
Almere City FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.87 | 0.93 | 0.60 | 0.67 | 1.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 0.79 | 0.86 | 0.93 | 0.57 | 0.64 | 1.14 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+7pp vs league) | |||||
Willem II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.43 | 0.88 | 0.41 | 1.08 | 0.46 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.96 | 0.44 | 0.94 | 0.44 | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+44pp vs league) | |||||
Almere City FC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.60 | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (28) | 1.50 | 0.82 | 1.36 | 0.57 | 1.64 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Willem II| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.53 | 0.82 | 0.65 | 0.85 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (27) | 0.85 | 0.52 | 0.81 | 0.62 | 0.91 | 0.36 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+34pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 82.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 8.5 corners | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 25.5 fouls | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 cards | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/08/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 29/03/25 | A | 0-2 | |
| 04/10/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/01/23 | H | 1-0 | |
| 21/10/22 | A | 1-1 |
Almere City FC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 06/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 29/04/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 0-2 |
Willem II| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 05/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  ADO Den Haag | 38 | 89 | 76% | 2.3 | 90 | 37 | +53 | 3.3 | 79% | 74% | 42% | 10.8 | 63% | 3.8 | 56% | 26.8 | 87% | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 60% |
| 2 | Willem II | 44 | 81 | 55% | 1.8 | 67 | 46 | +21 | 2.6 | 77% | 52% | 18% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.2 | 39% | 22.1 | 55% | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 48% |
| 3 |  Cambuur | 38 | 78 | 61% | 2.1 | 75 | 48 | +27 | 3.2 | 79% | 58% | 39% | 10.0 | 63% | 4.0 | 57% | 27.0 | 82% | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 58% |
| 4 | Almere City FC | 44 | 68 | 48% | 1.5 | 89 | 71 | +18 | 3.6 | 89% | 73% | 55% | 11.2 | 66% | 3.1 | 40% | 21.1 | 50% | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 5 |  De Graafschap | 40 | 64 | 45% | 1.6 | 77 | 63 | +14 | 3.5 | 88% | 68% | 55% | 12.3 | 74% | 3.3 | 41% | 22.2 | 53% | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 56% |
| 6 |  Waalwijk | 42 | 61 | 38% | 1.5 | 74 | 63 | +11 | 3.3 | 90% | 64% | 43% | 10.3 | 55% | 3.4 | 44% | 23.4 | 53% | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 50% |
| 7 |  Roda | 40 | 57 | 35% | 1.4 | 61 | 56 | +5 | 2.9 | 85% | 57% | 38% | 10.5 | 61% | 3.3 | 43% | 24.9 | 74% | 7 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 8 |  Vitesse | 38 | 56 | 39% | 1.5 | 64 | 55 | +9 | 3.1 | 89% | 68% | 39% | 9.6 | 55% | 4.8 | 71% | 27.8 | 95% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 46% |
| 9 |  Jong PSV U21 | 38 | 56 | 45% | 1.5 | 66 | 64 | +2 | 3.4 | 84% | 66% | 45% | 11.2 | 68% | 3.3 | 42% | 24.2 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 52% |
| 10 |  Den Bosch | 40 | 51 | 35% | 1.3 | 67 | 75 | -8 | 3.5 | 90% | 70% | 45% | 11.8 | 71% | 3.8 | 51% | 23.1 | 66% | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 47% |
| 11 |  Dordrecht | 38 | 47 | 32% | 1.2 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 2.7 | 82% | 55% | 21% | 11.3 | 68% | 4.5 | 58% | 25.3 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 48% |
| 12 |  FC Eindhoven | 38 | 47 | 37% | 1.2 | 51 | 69 | -18 | 3.2 | 74% | 63% | 45% | 10.9 | 68% | 3.3 | 39% | 23.3 | 63% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 13 |  Jong Utrecht | 38 | 46 | 32% | 1.2 | 58 | 62 | -4 | 3.2 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 9.6 | 55% | 3.1 | 36% | 25.3 | 68% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  VVV Venlo | 38 | 45 | 34% | 1.2 | 50 | 58 | -8 | 2.8 | 76% | 61% | 34% | 10.7 | 66% | 3.7 | 46% | 23.9 | 58% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 49% |
| 15 |  Emmen | 38 | 45 | 32% | 1.2 | 58 | 72 | -14 | 3.4 | 79% | 63% | 53% | 10.6 | 63% | 3.9 | 54% | 25.4 | 71% | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 52% |
| 16 |  FC OSS | 38 | 44 | 29% | 1.2 | 54 | 64 | -10 | 3.1 | 87% | 61% | 32% | 11.8 | 79% | 4.4 | 58% | 29.9 | 87% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 43% |
| 17 |  Jong AZ | 38 | 40 | 32% | 1.1 | 61 | 76 | -15 | 3.6 | 89% | 68% | 55% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.4 | 42% | 23.3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 54% |
| 18 |  Helmond Sport | 38 | 39 | 26% | 1.0 | 42 | 62 | -20 | 2.7 | 74% | 53% | 34% | 10.8 | 61% | 3.3 | 46% | 25.3 | 79% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 19 |  MVV | 38 | 38 | 24% | 1.0 | 41 | 73 | -32 | 3.0 | 74% | 61% | 45% | 10.5 | 66% | 3.2 | 42% | 22.8 | 58% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 44% |
| 20 |  Jong Ajax | 38 | 35 | 24% | 0.9 | 50 | 73 | -23 | 3.2 | 79% | 63% | 42% | 10.3 | 61% | 3.8 | 56% | 24.3 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 52% |
| 21 |  FC Volendam | 2 | 3 | 50% | 1.5 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | - |