Altay’s recent slump, three straight defeats and a 0-1 loss to Zhenys, contrasts with Kaisar’s single win after four losses, yet the model still favours an away victory. The odds lean 47% for a Kaisar win, 29% for Altay and 24% for a draw, with the most likely scoreline 1-1 at 10.1%. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most probable total is three goals, 22% of the time. Altay, at home against a similarly-strength opponent, averages 2.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded, while Kaisar, on the road, averages 1.43 scored and 1.86 conceded. The model’s selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5%, Under 7.5 at 97.4%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.5%, Under 6.5 at 93.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 93.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 91.5% and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 88.8%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Altay (Kazakhstan) win
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kaisar win
47.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.50
2.31
1.38
1.71
1.59
vs Stronger (8)
1.25
2.38
1.33
2.33
1.20
2.40
vs Similar (20)
2.05
1.30
2.60
1.10
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (2)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.60
1.25
1.19
1.21
2.07
vs Stronger (14)
1.00
1.93
1.12
1.38
0.83
2.67
vs Similar (15)
1.40
1.40
1.38
1.00
1.43
1.86
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
87.1%
Under 1.5
12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
67.6%
Under 2.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
45.9%
Under 3.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
68.1%
No
31.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.0%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
5.9%
1-3
5.9%
0-1
5.1%
2-3
4.5%
Altay (Kazakhstan) goals ↓
Kaisar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
5.1%
5.9%
3.8%
1.9%
1
3.8%
10%
9.0%
5.9%
2.9%
2
3.6%
7.0%
6.8%
4.5%
2.2%
3
1.8%
3.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.1%
4
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Altay (Kazakhstan) goals (down), columns = Kaisar goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kairat Almaty
3.00
FC Astana
2.60
Ordabasy
2.50
Okzhetpes
1.80
Irtysh
1.80
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.80
Zhenys
1.75
Aktobe
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Kaspiy
1.50
Yelimay Semey
1.00
Ulytau
0.80
Kaisar
0.40
Atyrau
0.33
Zhetysu
0.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
0.17
Altay (Kazakhstan) is 0.23 points worse than Kaisar in terms of average points per game (0.17 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ordabasy
2.67
Kairat Almaty
2.50
FC Astana
2.40
Okzhetpes
2.20
Aktobe
1.83
Zhenys
1.75
Kaspiy
1.67
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Irtysh
1.60
Kaisar
1.40
Ulytau
1.20
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.20
Altay (Kazakhstan)
1.17
Yelimay Semey
1.17
Atyrau
0.83
Zhetysu
0.60
Altay (Kazakhstan) is 0.23 goals worse than Kaisar in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ordabasy
0.67
Kairat Almaty
0.75
Zhenys
1.00
FC Astana
1.00
FK Tobol Kostanay
1.00
Okzhetpes
1.40
Yelimay Semey
1.50
Kaspiy
1.50
Kyzyl-Zhar
1.60
Ulytau
1.60
Aktobe
1.67
Irtysh
1.80
Atyrau
1.83
Kaisar
2.00
Zhetysu
2.80
Altay (Kazakhstan)
3.00
Altay (Kazakhstan) is 1.00 goals worse than Kaisar in terms of goals conceded per game (3.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Altay (Kazakhstan)
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Kaisar
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (8)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (22)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Okzhetpes
13.0
Kairat Almaty
10.4
FK Tobol Kostanay
10.0
Aktobe
9.5
FC Astana
8.8
Kyzyl-Zhar
8.5
Ordabasy
8.3
Zhetysu
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Zhetysu
6.1
FK Tobol Kostanay
5.6
Ordabasy
5.1
Aktobe
5.1
Kaisar
5.0
Kairat Almaty
4.4
FC Astana
4.0
Kyzyl-Zhar
3.2
Okzhetpes
2.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ordabasy
30.0
FK Tobol Kostanay
28.7
Aktobe
27.0
Kairat Almaty
26.1
FC Astana
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Altay (Kazakhstan) or Draw
53.0%
Avg Implied -
29%
24%
47%
covers Altay (Kazakhstan) + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) or Kaisar
76.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
24%
47%
covers Altay (Kazakhstan) + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kaisar
70.7%
Avg Implied -
29%
24%
47%
covers Draw + Kaisar
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5
Over
85.9%
Under
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5
Over
58.2%
Under
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5
Over
31.2%
Under
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 3.5
Over
13.5%
Under
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Altay (Kazakhstan), so a minus line means Altay (Kazakhstan) give that many goals of a start and Kaisar receive them. At -1, Altay (Kazakhstan) must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Altay (Kazakhstan) win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Altay (Kazakhstan))
Altay (Kazakhstan) -2
5.3%
Draw -2
8.7%
Kaisar +2
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Altay (Kazakhstan))
Altay (Kazakhstan) -1
14.1%
Draw -1
15.2%
Kaisar +1
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Altay (Kazakhstan))
Altay (Kazakhstan) +1
53.0%
Draw +1
19.8%
Kaisar -1
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Altay (Kazakhstan))
Altay (Kazakhstan) +2
72.8%
Draw +2
14.4%
Kaisar -2
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.80
0.85
0.85
0.82
0.76
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.62
0.33
1.67
0.60
1.60
vs Similar (20)
0.90
0.55
1.00
0.60
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.69
0.38
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.62
0.50
0.57
1.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.2%
Under 0.5
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
39.2%
Under 1.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.5%
Under 2.5
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.5%
Under
87.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.5%
Under
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Altay (Kazakhstan)
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.70
1.46
0.54
0.88
0.82
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (20)
1.15
0.75
1.60
0.50
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.00
-
-
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Kaisar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kaisar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.56
0.81
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.21
0.38
1.12
0.50
1.33
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.53
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Altay (Kazakhstan)) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.5%
Under 0.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
57.0%
Under 1.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
29.5%
Under 2.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 0.5 2H
Over
51.8%
Under
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altay (Kazakhstan) over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 0.5 2H
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.0%
Under
78.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kaisar over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
70.7%
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Under 2.5 2H goals
70.5%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (22)
€10m
FA (25)
€10m
AKT (25)
€10m
KA (24)
€10m
FTK (23)
€9m
YS (23)
€8m
OKZ (23)
€5m
ATY (20)
€4m
KYZ (26)
€4m
KAI (25)
€4m
IRT (26)
€4m
KAS (23)
€4m
ZHE (18)
€4m
A( (20)
€3m
ZHE (21)
€3m
ULY (20)
€3m
Altay (Kazakhstan)'s squad is €1m less valuable than Kaisar's (€3m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AKT (12)
€5m
KA (9)
€4m
YS (11)
€4m
FTK (7)
€3m
ORD (8)
€3m
FA (9)
€3m
OKZ (8)
€2m
KAI (11)
€2m
KYZ (9)
€2m
ATY (7)
€2m
ZHE (6)
€2m
ULY (7)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
IRT (6)
€1m
ZHE (8)
€1m
KAS (4)
€1m
Altay (Kazakhstan) and Kaisar have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ORD (4)
€3m
FA (3)
€2m
KA (5)
€2m
FTK (5)
€2m
AKT (4)
€2m
KAS (8)
€2m
OKZ (6)
€1m
KYZ (7)
€1m
ATY (5)
€1m
IRT (7)
€1m
KAI (4)
€1m
ULY (6)
€1m
A( (4)
€1m
ZHE (3)
€0m
YS (2)
€0m
ZHE (3)
€0m
Altay (Kazakhstan) and Kaisar have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FA (13)
€5m
ORD (10)
€4m
FTK (11)
€4m
KA (10)
€4m
YS (10)
€3m
AKT (9)
€3m
IRT (13)
€2m
ATY (8)
€2m
KAI (10)
€2m
ZHE (10)
€2m
ZHE (9)
€2m
KYZ (10)
€1m
KAS (11)
€1m
OKZ (9)
€1m
A( (8)
€1m
ULY (7)
€1m
Altay (Kazakhstan) and Kaisar have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Kazakhstan: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: Premier League stats & trends →