PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Aluminij vs Bravo Result & Analysis

Date: 10/11/2023
Time: 16:30
Final 1-1
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
40%
29%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Bravo
Bravo
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✗ Miss
39.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bravo win✗ Miss
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L12L12L31W10W14L02L00D01LH·MUR25/08A·BRA02/09H·ROG16/09A·NK 22/09A·CEL27/09H·MAR01/10A·KOP08/10H·RAD22/10A·OLI29/10A·MUR04/11
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.271.711.431.561.12
vs Stronger (2)2.501.502.002.003.001.00
vs Similar (22)1.321.231.551.361.091.09
vs Weaker (6)2.501.332.501.502.501.25
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BravoBravo

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W20W11D42W02L32W12L21W11D02LA·RAD27/08H·ALU02/09A·MUR16/09H·OLI23/09A·ROG27/09H·NK 30/09A·CEL07/10H·MAR22/10A·KOP28/10H·RAD05/11
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.431.271.401.001.47
vs Stronger (3)0.672.330.003.001.002.00
vs Similar (27)1.191.331.361.291.001.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.2%
Under 1.5
24.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.1%
Under 2.5
50.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.7%
No
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
1-0
8.8%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.4%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
7.0%
0-2
5.5%
Aluminij goals ↓
Bravo goals →
01234
08.4%7.6%5.5%2.3%0.7%
18.8%14%7.7%3.2%1.0%
27.0%8.7%5.4%2.2%0.7%
33.3%4.1%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Bravo goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Aluminij is 0.53 points worse than Bravo in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.39).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij is 0.14 goals worse than Bravo in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Aluminij is 0.81 goals worse than Bravo in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.17).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Aluminij is 5.2 percentage points better than Bravo in terms of average possession (46% vs 41%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

AluminijAluminij

For 4.8 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.7

🚩 Corners

13067195465446764842946131091181310121110A·MURA·OLIA·KOPH·MARA·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURH·OLIA·MAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.3

🟨 Cards

9022121364345313224144319794565A·MURA·OLIA·KOPH·MARA·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURH·OLIA·MAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.1 · Against 11.1 · Total 25.2

⚠️ Fouls

35017121419682111115231212141011161011929331432163526212620A·MURA·OLIA·KOPH·MARA·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MURH·OLIA·MAR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

BravoBravo

For 5.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 11.1

🚩 Corners

150104574696464546846526141210151091012118A·KOPH·MARA·CELH·NK H·OLIA·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4

🟨 Cards

60122412211133224213243224563A·KOPH·MARA·CELH·NK H·OLIA·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.9

⚠️ Fouls

26012141279166115131581412119118111526192517182326201926A·KOPH·MARA·CELH·NK H·OLIA·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARA·NK
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AluminijAluminij

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (46)10.39.810.61.41.11.726.326.226.4
vs Stronger (2)7.06.08.04.01.07.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (30)10.910.811.01.91.72.127.527.027.9
vs Weaker (14)---0.00.00.0---
% over line69%60%75%22%18%25%69%80%62%
% under line31%40%25%78%82%75%31%20%38%
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BravoBravo

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.49.99.02.52.22.825.825.725.9
vs Stronger (5)9.58.010.03.02.03.725.025.025.0
vs Similar (45)9.410.08.82.42.22.725.925.726.1
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line48%56%41%34%28%40%73%56%88%
% under line52%44%59%66%72%60%27%44%12%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
10.8
Aluminij
10.3
Celje
10.0
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Koper
9.7
Bravo
9.4
NK Domzale
9.4
Maribor
9.2

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.1
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.8
Aluminij
26.3
Bravo
25.8
Maribor
25.6
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.5
Mura
25.4
Koper
24.5
Celje
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.2%
Under 9.5
41.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.5%
Under 3.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
76.6%
Under 21.5
23.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L02L10W01L10W03L01L00D00DH·MUR25/08A·BRA02/09H·ROG16/09A·NK 22/09A·CEL27/09H·MAR01/10A·KOP08/10H·RAD22/10A·OLI29/10A·MUR04/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.930.570.690.62
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.640.550.730.640.550.45
vs Weaker (6)1.500.832.000.501.251.00
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BravoBravo

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W10W01L12L01L22D11D00D01L01LA·RAD27/08H·ALU02/09A·MUR16/09H·OLI23/09A·ROG27/09H·NK 30/09A·CEL07/10H·MAR22/10A·KOP28/10H·RAD05/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.700.400.730.470.67
vs Stronger (3)0.671.000.001.001.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.410.670.430.710.380.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L10W02L30W00D11D01L00D01LH·MUR25/08A·BRA02/09H·ROG16/09A·NK 22/09A·CEL27/09H·MAR01/10A·KOP08/10H·RAD22/10A·OLI29/10A·MUR04/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.670.790.860.880.50
vs Stronger (2)2.001.001.002.003.000.00
vs Similar (22)0.680.680.820.730.550.64
vs Weaker (6)1.000.500.501.001.250.25
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bravo) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

BravoBravo

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L10W10W30W01L10W01L21W10W01LA·RAD27/08H·ALU02/09A·MUR16/09H·OLI23/09A·ROG27/09H·NK 30/09A·CEL07/10H·MAR22/10A·KOP28/10H·RAD05/11
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.870.670.530.80
vs Stronger (3)0.001.330.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.780.670.930.570.620.77
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bravo over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls87.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards81.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls76.6%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.575.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards72.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners70.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Aluminij and Bravo have a similar squad value (both €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij and Bravo have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij and Bravo have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij and Bravo have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ALU wins
0
Draws
1
BRA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Bravo · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
02/09/23ABravo Vs ALU2-0

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/23AMura Vs ALU1-0
29/10/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs ALU0-0
22/10/23HALU Vs Radomlje0-2
08/10/23AKoper Vs ALU4-1
01/10/23HALU Vs Maribor1-0
27/09/23ACelje Vs ALU1-3
22/09/23ANK Domzale Vs ALU2-1
16/09/23HALU Vs Rogaška1-2
02/09/23ABravo Vs ALU2-0
25/08/23HALU Vs Mura0-1

BravoBravo

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/11/23HBRA Vs Radomlje0-2
28/10/23AKoper Vs BRA1-1
22/10/23HBRA Vs Maribor2-1
07/10/23ACelje Vs BRA2-1
30/09/23HBRA Vs NK Domzale3-2
27/09/23ARogaška Vs BRA2-0
23/09/23HBRA Vs Olimpija Ljubljana4-2
16/09/23AMura Vs BRA1-1
02/09/23HBRA Vs Aluminij2-0
27/08/23ARadomlje Vs BRA1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDL1.72
HomeLLLWL1.59
AwayLWLDL1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%45%54%
AVG goals2.722.772.67
Over 1.5 %70%68%71%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %41%41%42%
Scored1.671.731.62
Conceded1.041.051.04
BTTS48%45%50%
Clean Sheet37%36%38%
Corners10.319.8010.62
Cards5.085.005.12
Bravo
Bravo
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDL1.14
HomeWWWWL1.56
AwayWDLLD0.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%48%12%
AVG goals2.282.442.12
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %36%36%36%
Over 3.5 %14%16%12%
Scored1.061.320.80
Conceded1.221.121.32
BTTS44%36%52%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners9.429.889.00
Cards3.763.384.12

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches