Aluminij’s recent home form shows a solid 2.0 goals scored per match but a 1.0 average conceded against stronger opponents, while Celje, playing away, averages 2.0 scored and 1.29 conceded against weaker sides. The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an expected 3.2 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5% chance. The predicted result favours Celje, with a 58% chance of an away win, 23% for a draw and 19% for a home win. Suggested selections include Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 4% edge), Under 7.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.0% with a 4% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.2% with a 5% edge), Under 6.5 (95.5% with a 6% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (93.5% with a 4% edge), Away +2 handicap (92.4%) and Home under 1.5 HT goals (92.1% with a 5% edge). Both sides are coming off defeats, adding to the anticipation of a lively match.
Results analysis
Aluminij’s recent run of two straight defeats set the tone, while Celje came off a win, making the away win the sensible outcome. The model’s favourite, an away win at 60%, proved correct as Celje secured a 0-2 victory. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the 0-2 result still matched the model’s overall expectation. Every suggested pick landed: Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Under 7.5 at 98.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 98.1%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.4%, Under 6.5 at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.9%, Away +2 handicap at 93.1%, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 92.4%. The model’s selections were spot on, confirming its confidence in Celje’s triumph.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aluminij win✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.66
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.12
1xBet
4.81
BetVictor
4.80
Dafabet
4.80
Marathonbet
4.75
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.07
Edge
-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.37
Dafabet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
10Bet
4.10
Celje win✓ Hit
60.1%
Avg Implied 58.1% · @ 1.57
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.62
10Bet
1.59
Dafabet
1.59
Superbet
1.58
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.73
1.25
1.38
1.00
2.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (27)
1.15
1.63
1.20
1.40
1.08
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.30
2.19
1.19
1.86
1.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
0.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.53
1.20
1.44
0.78
1.67
1.83
vs Weaker (13)
2.77
1.31
3.67
1.33
2.00
1.29
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
@ 1.14+3.0%
Under 1.5
15.8%
@ 4.92-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Under
Pinnacle
5.66
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Superbet
4.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
62.6%
@ 1.49+0.6%
Under 2.5
37.4%
@ 2.43-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.53
BetVictor
1.51
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Betano
2.47
Superbet
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.4%
@ 2.24-0.9%
Under 3.5
59.6%
@ 1.58+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.36
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Under
Betano
1.62
Pinnacle
1.60
Superbet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
10Bet
1.60
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.7%
@ 1.55+0.2%
No
40.3%
@ 2.27-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
No
Betano
2.32
William Hil
2.30
BetVictor
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%@ 7.59+4.4%
1-2
9.9%@ 7.27+3.8%
0-2 ✓
9.0%@ 8.51+3.8%
0-1
7.5%@ 8.71+2.4%
1-3
7.0%@ 10.37+2.8%
0-3
6.4%@ 11.97+2.7%
2-2
5.4%@ 12.19+1.8%
2-1
5.1%@ 13.80+1.9%
Aluminij goals ↓
Celje goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
7.5%
9.0%
6.4%
3.4%
1
3.4%
10%
9.9%
7.0%
3.7%
2
2.4%
5.1%
5.4%
3.9%
2.1%
3
0.9%
1.9%
2.0%
1.4%
0.8%
4
0.2%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Celje goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Aluminij is 0.69 points worse than Celje in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Aluminij is 0.52 goals worse than Celje in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Aluminij is 0.19 goals better than Celje in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Celje
For 4.7 · Against 7.0 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 13.7 · Total 28.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (3)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
13.0
8.0
1.4
1.7
1.0
27.5
27.4
27.7
vs Stronger (3)
12.7
13.0
12.0
4.3
5.5
2.0
24.3
25.0
23.0
vs Similar (23)
9.8
13.0
7.2
2.1
2.0
2.2
29.2
30.0
28.6
vs Weaker (24)
13.0
13.0
-
0.3
0.7
0.0
22.0
22.0
-
% over line
54%
71%
33%
24%
26%
22%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
46%
29%
67%
76%
74%
78%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.4%
@ 1.84-5.9%
Under 9.5
55.6%
@ 1.87+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.95
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
10Bet
1.83
1xBet
1.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.87
Superbet
1.87
Betano
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
77.2%
Under 21.5
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aluminij or Draw✗ Miss
39.9%
Avg Implied 41.5% · @ 2.21
Edge
-1.6%
18%
22%
60%
covers Aluminij + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.30
10Bet
2.25
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
William Hil
2.20
Aluminij or Celje✓ Hit
77.9%
Avg Implied 78.1% · @ 1.17
Edge
-0.2%
18%
22%
60%
covers Aluminij + Celje
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
Draw or Celje✓ Hit
82.2%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.14
Edge
+1.8%
18%
22%
60%
covers Draw + Celje
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aluminij over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
66.6%
@ 1.40+0.2%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.76-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Under
Pinnacle
2.96
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Aluminij over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
30.0%
@ 2.88-2.0%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.36+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.01
BetVictor
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
1xBet
2.93
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Aluminij over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 6.69-3.9%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.07+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.10
Bet365
7.00
10Bet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
1xBet
6.40
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Aluminij over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.6%
@ 11.62-5.5%
Under
97.4%
@ 1.01+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
12.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Celje over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
88.1%
@ 1.08+2.8%
Under
11.9%
@ 6.32-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Under
1xBet
6.80
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.00
Celje over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
62.9%
@ 1.50+1.0%
Under
37.1%
@ 2.44-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Bet365
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.58
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.45
Superbet
2.42
10Bet
2.40
Celje over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
35.9%
@ 2.53-0.6%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.46+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
BetVictor
2.60
Pinnacle
2.58
Betano
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.47
Superbet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Celje over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
16.8%
@ 4.59-3.3%
Under
83.2%
@ 1.15+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Superbet
4.25
Under
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aluminij, so a minus line means Aluminij give that many goals of a start and Celje receive them. At -1, Aluminij must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aluminij win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aluminij)Actual: Celje
Aluminij -2
2.0%
@ 26.00-1.7%
Draw -2
4.9%
@ 15.00-1.4%
Celje +2
93.1%
@ 1.05+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
26.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
1.05
Handicap -1 (Aluminij)Actual: Celje
Aluminij -1
6.9%
@ 8.85-2.8%
Draw -1
10.9%
@ 5.55-4.5%
Celje +1
82.2%
@ 1.15+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
6.70
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.11
Handicap +1 (Aluminij)Actual: Celje
Aluminij +1
39.9%
@ 2.21+0.3%
Draw +1
22.1%
@ 3.60-2.2%
Celje -1
38.0%
@ 2.42+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
2.25
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.20
Unibet
2.08
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.05
Away
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.38
Unibet
2.20
Handicap +2 (Aluminij)Actual: Draw
Aluminij +2
62.0%
@ 1.46+2.5%
Draw +2
18.4%
@ 4.38-1.4%
Celje -2
19.6%
@ 4.21-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.40
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Unibet
3.65
Away
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
Unibet
3.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.90
0.44
0.81
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.41
0.81
0.47
0.80
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.73
0.88
0.81
1.43
0.64
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.67
0.78
0.56
1.00
0.83
vs Weaker (13)
1.46
0.69
1.17
0.83
1.71
0.57
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
74.0%
@ 1.24-0.5%
Under 0.5
26.0%
@ 3.62+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
Under
1xBet
4.00
Bet365
3.75
William Hil
3.75
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.5%
@ 2.17-6.2%
Under 1.5
63.5%
@ 1.61+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.22
Bet365
2.20
Pinnacle
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.67
Superbet
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.4%
@ 4.53-5.0%
Under 2.5
84.6%
@ 1.16+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
William Hil
4.60
Betano
4.50
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Under
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.5%
@ 2.32-2.4%
Under
62.5%
@ 1.54+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.34
1xBet
2.32
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Under
10Bet
1.57
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.54
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 7.67-4.4%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.05+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.10
10Bet
7.50
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 18.62-4.0%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
26.00
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Celje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
58.1%
@ 1.52-2.9%
Under
41.9%
@ 2.38+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.51
Superbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Under
Pinnacle
2.54
1xBet
2.43
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.30
Betano
2.25
Celje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
21.2%
@ 3.49-5.2%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.25+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.56
10Bet
3.55
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.30
Under
1xBet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Celje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.1%
@ 8.63-4.7%
Under
93.9%
@ 1.04+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.10
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.81
0.56
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.81
0.73
0.60
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Celje) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Celje
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.31
0.38
0.43
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.53
0.67
0.22
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.31
0.62
2.50
0.50
0.29
0.71
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
81.0%
@ 1.14-0.3%
Under 0.5
19.0%
@ 4.96+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Under
1xBet
5.50
10Bet
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Betano
4.80
William Hil
4.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.9%
@ 1.73-4.6%
Under 1.5
51.1%
@ 1.99+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
William Hil
1.75
10Bet
1.73
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Under
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.02
10Bet
2.00
1xBet
1.99
Marathonbet
1.99
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.3%
@ 3.14-7.1%
Under 2.5
77.7%
@ 1.31+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Superbet
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.92
Under
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
46.2%
@ 1.94-1.4%
Under
53.8%
@ 1.76+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.82
Superbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.71
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 5.69-5.6%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.10+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Marathonbet
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 15.50-4.2%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.01+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Celje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
66.3%
@ 1.35-1.9%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.89+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.34
Under
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Betano
2.92
Superbet
2.70
Celje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
29.7%
@ 2.61-5.5%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.42+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.64
Superbet
2.62
1xBet
2.55
Betano
2.55
Under
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
Celje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 6.07-4.8%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.09+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
6.50
1xBet
6.20
Betano
5.50
Under
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
98.2%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
95.4%
1.03
Betano
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
10Bet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+4.7%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
93.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.4%
1.05
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.6%
1.09
Betano
1.11
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.4%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
89.1%
1.07
Pinnacle
1.12
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Superbet
1.06
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
88.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.08
Superbet
1.06
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.6%
1.16
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
84.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Pinnacle
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
83.2%
1.15
Betano
1.17
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
82.2%
1.14
Betano
1.20
BetVictor
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
82.2%
1.15
Bet365
1.18
Marathonbet
1.11
-
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.0%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
78.8%
1.25
1xBet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.9%
1.28
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
-
-
-
+7.5%
-
Home or Away
77.9%
1.17
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.31
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
Superbet
1.29
William Hil
1.29
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
77.5%
1.22
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.26
Betfair
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Betfair
1.22
-0.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
70.3%
1.42
Betano
1.45
1xBet
1.45
10Bet
1.40
Superbet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+5.5%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Celje · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Nikita Iosifov17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Danijel Šturm12%
Ivica Vidović12%
Darko Hrka10%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitaliy Lisakovich50%
Darko Hrka40%
Matija Boben33%
Ivan Ćalušić33%
Franko Kovačević25%
Matej Poplatnik20%
Mario Kvesić17%
Damjan Vuklišević17%
Juanjo Nieto17%
Žan Karničnik12%
Papa Daniel12%
Łukasz Bejger9%
Žan-Luk Leban9%
Armandas Kučys0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Nikita Iosifov0%
Milot Avdyli0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vitaliy Lisakovich25%
Armandas Kučys25%
Svit Sešlar25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš17%
Milot Avdyli17%
Darko Hrka10%
Juanjo Nieto8%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Franko Kovačević0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Ivica Vidović0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Franko Kovačević50%
Armandas Kučys25%
Mario Kvesić17%
Ivica Vidović12%
Nikita Iosifov8%
Milot Avdyli8%
Vitaliy Lisakovich0%
Matija Boben0%
Matej Poplatnik0%
Damjan Vuklišević0%
Andrej Kotnik0%
Juanjo Nieto0%
Rudi Požeg Vancaš0%
Žan Karničnik0%
Svit Sešlar0%
Darko Hrka0%
Ivan Ćalušić0%
Danijel Šturm0%
Łukasz Bejger0%
Žan-Luk Leban0%
Papa Daniel0%
Artemijus Tutyškinas0%
Florjan Jevsenak0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Aluminij's squad is €10m less valuable than Celje's (€4m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Aluminij's attack is €5m less valuable than Celje's (€2m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij and Celje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij's defence is €4m less valuable than Celje's (€2m vs €6m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Koper
Bravo
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
Mura
Radomlje