PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Aluminij vs Koper Result & Analysis

Date: 29/08/2025
Time: 15:30
Final 1-0
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
18%
21%
61%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Aluminij’s recent 0-1 loss to Koper and Koper’s two-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.6 goals. The most likely outcome is an away win, with a 61% chance of Koper triumphing, 18% for Aluminij and 21% for a draw. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-2, with a 9.5% chance. Aluminij, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Koper, on the road, averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.3% and Under 11.5 corners at 73.0%. The model’s selection for the match result remains an away win.

Results analysis

The upset came early as Aluminij snatched a 1-0 victory over Koper, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 61% probability. The prediction was wrong, and the final score of 1-0 confirms the home side’s triumph. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed its target, with a high 88.1% chance that it would have been correct. Aluminij, coming off a defeat in their last match, managed to extend their recent form, while Koper, on a two-game winning run, failed to convert their momentum. The expected total of 3.6 goals and the most likely 3-goal outcome were not realised in this tightly contested encounter.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✓ Hit
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✗ Miss
61.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W42W30W12L21W03L11D21W23L20WA·BEL06/05H·BRI12/05A·RUD18/05H·TRI25/05A·RAD18/07H·OLI26/07A·MUR02/08A·BRA09/08H·CEL17/08A·NK 22/08← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.970.972.001.001.940.94
vs Stronger (1)2.003.002.003.00--
vs Similar (16)1.941.122.001.331.901.00
vs Weaker (13)2.000.622.000.432.000.83
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-711D31W21W07L20W35L22D12L31W21WA·ZEL10/07H·ZEL17/07H·BRA20/07A·VIK24/07H·PRI28/07H·VIK31/07A·MAR03/08H·RAD09/08A·OLI17/08H·MUR23/08
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.871.471.621.062.141.93
vs Stronger (2)1.506.003.005.000.007.00
vs Similar (16)1.751.311.250.882.251.75
vs Weaker (12)2.080.921.860.712.401.20
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%4%08%119%221%319%414%515%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.5%
Under 2.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%
1-1
8.9%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
7.4%
0-3
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
2-1
5.0%
Aluminij goals ↓
Koper goals →
01234
03.6%5.7%7.6%6.0%3.5%
12.6%8.9%9.5%7.4%4.3%
22.1%5.0%5.9%4.6%2.7%
30.9%2.1%2.4%1.9%1.1%
40.3%0.6%0.8%0.6%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
NK Domzale
0.67
Primorje
0.64
Aluminij is 0.91 points worse than Koper in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.97).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
NK Domzale
0.94
Primorje
0.86
Nafta
0.50
Aluminij is 0.85 goals worse than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 2.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Primorje
2.08
NK Domzale
2.11
Aluminij is 0.53 goals worse than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.26).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

AluminijAluminij

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

KoperKoper

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AluminijAluminij

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)12.710.018.00.30.30.224.326.520.0
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (32)12.710.018.00.40.50.424.326.520.0
vs Weaker (16)---0.00.00.0---
% over line67%50%100%4%4%4%67%100%0%
% under line33%50%0%96%96%96%33%0%100%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (28)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (20)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.3
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Celje
4.5
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.4%
Under 3.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.9%
Under 21.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W21W20W01L11D03L11D01L20W00DA·BEL06/05H·BRI12/05A·RUD18/05H·TRI25/05A·RAD18/07H·OLI26/07A·MUR02/08A·BRA09/08H·CEL17/08A·NK 22/08← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.601.070.570.810.62
vs Stronger (1)2.000.002.000.00--
vs Similar (16)0.810.881.001.000.700.80
vs Weaker (13)1.000.311.000.291.000.33
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W31W00D01L10W21W11D02L01L10WA·ZEL10/07H·ZEL17/07H·BRA20/07A·VIK24/07H·PRI28/07H·VIK31/07A·MAR03/08H·RAD09/08A·OLI17/08H·MUR23/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.530.750.311.000.79
vs Stronger (2)1.001.002.001.000.001.00
vs Similar (16)0.750.500.620.250.880.75
vs Weaker (12)1.000.500.710.291.400.80
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W21W10W11D10W00D00D20W03L20WA·BEL06/05H·BRI12/05A·RUD18/05H·TRI25/05A·RAD18/07H·OLI26/07A·MUR02/08A·BRA09/08H·CEL17/08A·NK 22/08← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.370.930.431.120.31
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (16)1.120.251.000.331.200.20
vs Weaker (13)1.000.311.000.141.000.50
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

KoperKoper

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-601L00D21W06L10W14L11D10W30W11DA·ZEL10/07H·ZEL17/07H·BRA20/07A·VIK24/07H·PRI28/07H·VIK31/07A·MAR03/08H·RAD09/08A·OLI17/08H·MUR23/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.930.880.751.141.14
vs Stronger (2)0.505.001.004.000.006.00
vs Similar (16)1.000.810.620.621.381.00
vs Weaker (12)1.080.421.140.431.000.40
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls87.1%--------
Over 2.5 cards79.0%--------
Over 21.5 fouls75.9%--------
Under 5.5 cards75.3%--------
Under 11.5 corners73.0%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Aluminij's squad is €4m less valuable than Koper's (€4m vs €8m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Aluminij's attack is €2m less valuable than Koper's (€2m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij's midfield is €2m less valuable than Koper's (€1m vs €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Aluminij and Koper have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
ALU wins
0
Draws
3
KOP wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Koper · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
11/04/24AKoper Vs ALU2-1
16/02/24HALU Vs Koper1-2
26/11/23HALU Vs Koper3-2
08/10/23AKoper Vs ALU4-1

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/08/25ANK Domzale Vs ALU0-2
17/08/25HALU Vs Celje2-3
09/08/25ABravo Vs ALU1-2
02/08/25AMura Vs ALU1-1
26/07/25HALU Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-3
18/07/25ARadomlje Vs ALU1-2
25/05/25HALU Vs Triglav1-2
18/05/25ARudar Vs ALU0-3
12/05/25HALU Vs Brinje-Grosuplje4-2
06/05/25ABeltinci Vs ALU0-4

KoperKoper

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/08/25HKOP Vs Mura2-1
17/08/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs KOP1-3
09/08/25HKOP Vs Radomlje1-2
03/08/25AMaribor Vs KOP2-2
31/07/25HKOP Vs Viking3-5
28/07/25HKOP Vs Primorje2-0
24/07/25AViking Vs KOP7-0
20/07/25HKOP Vs Bravo2-1
17/07/25HKOP Vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo3-1
10/07/25AZeljeznicar Sarajevo Vs KOP1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDWLW1.68
HomeDWLLL1.67
AwayWWDWW1.69
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.902.832.96
Over 1.5 %86%88%85%
Over 2.5 %58%58%58%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.621.581.65
Conceded1.281.251.31
BTTS56%54%58%
Clean Sheet26%29%23%
Corners12.6710.0018.00
Cards4.674.006.00
Koper
Koper
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLWW1.76
HomeWWLLW1.81
AwayWDLDW1.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%50%50%
AVG goals2.962.693.25
Over 1.5 %78%73%83%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %34%27%42%
Scored1.721.691.75
Conceded1.241.001.50
BTTS62%58%67%
Clean Sheet28%38%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3474
68%
2.2
8532+53
3.4
85%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7162.50.9
-
2KoperKoper3467
59%
2.0
7143+28
3.4
82%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.11.3
-
3BravoBravo3462
56%
1.8
6251+11
3.3
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.5
-
4MariborMaribor3353
45%
1.6
5740+17
2.9
82%
58%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.2
-
5Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3352
45%
1.6
4740+7
2.6
79%
58%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6151.41.2
-
6RadomljeRadomlje3445
38%
1.3
5063-13
3.3
97%
79%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.9
-
7AluminijAluminij3436
29%
1.1
4261-19
3.0
85%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.8
-
8MuraMura3431
24%
0.9
3555-20
2.6
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
9PrimorjePrimorje3623
17%
0.6
3175-44
2.9
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.1
-
10NK DomzaleNK Domzale1812
17%
0.7
1738-21
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11NaftaNafta24
50%
2.0
10+1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.50.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches