Aluminij’s recent 0-1 loss to Koper and Koper’s two-game winning streak set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting an average of 3.6 goals. The most likely outcome is an away win, with a 61% chance of Koper triumphing, 18% for Aluminij and 21% for a draw. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-2, with a 9.5% chance. Aluminij, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.33 conceded, while Koper, on the road, averages 2.25 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 88.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 87.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 75.9%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.3% and Under 11.5 corners at 73.0%. The model’s selection for the match result remains an away win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Aluminij snatched a 1-0 victory over Koper, overturning the model’s pre-match favourite of an away win that had a 61% probability. The prediction was wrong, and the final score of 1-0 confirms the home side’s triumph. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed its target, with a high 88.1% chance that it would have been correct. Aluminij, coming off a defeat in their last match, managed to extend their recent form, while Koper, on a two-game winning run, failed to convert their momentum. The expected total of 3.6 goals and the most likely 3-goal outcome were not realised in this tightly contested encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aluminij win✓ Hit
18.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win✗ Miss
61.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.97
2.00
1.00
1.94
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.94
1.12
2.00
1.33
1.90
1.00
vs Weaker (13)
2.00
0.62
2.00
0.43
2.00
0.83
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.47
1.62
1.06
2.14
1.93
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
6.00
3.00
5.00
0.00
7.00
vs Similar (16)
1.75
1.31
1.25
0.88
2.25
1.75
vs Weaker (12)
2.08
0.92
1.86
0.71
2.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.5%
Under 2.5
30.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.2%
Under 3.5
51.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.1%
No
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
9.5%
1-1
8.9%
0-2
7.6%
1-3
7.4%
0-3
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-1
5.7%
2-1
5.0%
Aluminij goals ↓
Koper goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
5.7%
7.6%
6.0%
3.5%
1
2.6%
8.9%
9.5%
7.4%
4.3%
2
2.1%
5.0%
5.9%
4.6%
2.7%
3
0.9%
2.1%
2.4%
1.9%
1.1%
4
0.3%
0.6%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
NK Domzale
0.67
Primorje
0.64
Aluminij is 0.91 points worse than Koper in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
NK Domzale
0.94
Primorje
0.86
Nafta
0.50
Aluminij is 0.85 goals worse than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 2.09).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Primorje
2.08
NK Domzale
2.11
Aluminij is 0.53 goals worse than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.26).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Koper
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.7
10.0
18.0
0.3
0.3
0.2
24.3
26.5
20.0
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (32)
12.7
10.0
18.0
0.4
0.5
0.4
24.3
26.5
20.0
vs Weaker (16)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
67%
50%
100%
4%
4%
4%
67%
100%
0%
% under line
33%
50%
0%
96%
96%
96%
33%
0%
100%
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.3
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Celje
4.5
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.4%
Under 3.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.9%
Under 21.5
24.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.60
1.07
0.57
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.88
1.00
1.00
0.70
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.31
1.00
0.29
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.53
0.75
0.31
1.00
0.79
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.50
0.62
0.25
0.88
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.50
0.71
0.29
1.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.37
0.93
0.43
1.12
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
0.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.12
0.25
1.00
0.33
1.20
0.20
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.31
1.00
0.14
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.93
0.88
0.75
1.14
1.14
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
5.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
6.00
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.81
0.62
0.62
1.38
1.00
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.42
1.14
0.43
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Aluminij's squad is €4m less valuable than Koper's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Aluminij's attack is €2m less valuable than Koper's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij's midfield is €2m less valuable than Koper's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Aluminij and Koper have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →