Aluminij’s recent loss to Koper and Koper’s two-game winning streak set the tone for this encounter, making an away win the model’s pick. The probability of a Koper victory sits at 50%, a draw at 27%, and an Aluminij win at 23%. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at a 26% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.8% probability. Aluminij, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Koper, on the road against a comparable side, averages 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (94.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.5%), Away +2 handicap (90.9%), Home under 2.5 goals (90.9%), and Under 4.5 (86.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aluminij win
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Koper win
54.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.73
1.12
1.38
1.00
2.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.62
1.14
1.36
1.08
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.07
2.07
1.07
1.69
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.74
1.16
2.00
1.00
1.50
1.30
vs Weaker (11)
2.09
0.91
2.20
1.20
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.9%
Under 2.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.8%
Under 3.5
71.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
52.1%
No
47.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
0-1
10.5%
0-2
10.2%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.8%
0-3
5.9%
1-3
5.7%
2-1
5.4%
Aluminij goals ↓
Koper goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
11%
10%
5.9%
2.6%
1
5.3%
12%
9.8%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.1%
5.4%
4.7%
2.7%
1.2%
3
1.0%
1.7%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Koper goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Aluminij is 0.57 points worse than Koper in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Aluminij is 0.14 goals better than Koper in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Aluminij is 0.43 goals worse than Koper in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Koper
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.6%
Under 9.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.2%
Under 3.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.5%
Under 21.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aluminij or Draw
45.2%
Avg Implied -
19%
26%
55%
covers Aluminij + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aluminij or Koper
74.3%
Avg Implied -
19%
26%
55%
covers Aluminij + Koper
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Koper
80.6%
Avg Implied -
19%
26%
55%
covers Draw + Koper
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aluminij over/under 0.5
Over
61.7%
Under
38.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5
Over
82.6%
Under
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5
Over
25.6%
Under
74.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 3.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aluminij, so a minus line means Aluminij give that many goals of a start and Koper receive them. At -1, Aluminij must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aluminij win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aluminij)
Aluminij -2
1.9%
Draw -2
5.2%
Koper +2
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aluminij)
Aluminij -1
7.1%
Draw -1
12.4%
Koper +1
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aluminij)
Aluminij +1
45.2%
Draw +1
23.5%
Koper -1
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aluminij)
Aluminij +2
68.6%
Draw +2
17.2%
Koper -2
14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.44
0.75
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.81
0.50
0.79
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
0.93
0.36
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.95
0.42
1.11
0.22
0.80
0.60
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.45
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.69
0.62
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.81
0.64
0.57
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Koper) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Koper
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.14
0.71
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.74
0.89
0.78
0.70
0.70
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.45
1.60
0.60
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Koper over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Aluminij's squad is €4m less valuable than Koper's (€4m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Aluminij's attack is €2m less valuable than Koper's (€2m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij's midfield is €2m less valuable than Koper's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij and Koper have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Celje
Bravo
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Nafta
Mura
Radomlje