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Aluminij vs Maribor Result & Analysis

Date: 19/09/2025
Time: 15:30
Final 2-3
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
21%
27%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maribor win✓ Hit
52.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W12L21W03L11D21W23L20W10W14LA·RUD18/05H·TRI25/05A·RAD18/07H·OLI26/07A·MUR02/08A·BRA09/08H·CEL17/08A·NK 22/08H·KOP29/08A·PRI14/09← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.931.032.000.931.881.12
vs Stronger (1)2.003.002.003.00--
vs Similar (18)1.831.221.861.141.821.27
vs Weaker (11)2.090.552.170.332.000.80
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L21W11D22D20W33D51W01L10WH·CEL20/07A·PAK24/07A·NK 27/07H·PAK31/07H·KOP03/08A·PRI10/08H·BRA16/08H·RAD23/08A·OLI31/08H·MUR13/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.831.032.251.121.360.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.471.401.881.751.001.00
vs Weaker (15)2.200.672.620.501.710.86
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.0%
Under 1.5
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
No
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
0-1
11.2%
0-2
10.1%
1-2
9.6%
0-0
8.8%
1-0
6.0%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
5.5%
Aluminij goals ↓
Maribor goals →
01234
08.8%11%10%5.5%2.3%
16.0%13%9.6%5.2%2.1%
23.4%5.5%4.5%2.5%1.0%
31.1%1.7%1.4%0.8%0.3%
40.3%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Maribor goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.18
Nafta
2.00
Koper
1.97
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.61
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.58
Radomlje
1.32
Aluminij
1.06
Mura
0.91
NK Domzale
0.67
Primorje
0.64
Aluminij is 0.55 points worse than Maribor in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.61).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.50
Koper
2.09
Bravo
1.82
Maribor
1.73
Radomlje
1.47
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.42
Aluminij
1.24
Mura
1.03
NK Domzale
0.94
Primorje
0.86
Nafta
0.50
Aluminij is 0.49 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.73).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Nafta
0.00
Celje
0.94
Maribor
1.21
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.21
Koper
1.26
Bravo
1.50
Mura
1.62
Aluminij
1.79
Radomlje
1.85
Primorje
2.08
NK Domzale
2.11
Aluminij is 0.58 goals worse than Maribor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.21).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

AluminijAluminij

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

MariborMaribor

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

AluminijAluminij

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)18.0-18.00.10.00.220.0-20.0
vs Stronger (2)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (32)18.0-18.00.20.00.320.0-20.0
vs Weaker (16)---0.00.00.0---
% over line100%-100%2%0%4%0%-0%
% under line0%-0%98%100%96%100%-100%
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.0-10.00.10.00.218.0-18.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (27)10.0-10.00.10.00.318.0-18.0
vs Weaker (23)---0.00.00.0---
% over line100%-100%2%0%4%0%-0%
% under line0%-0%98%100%96%100%-100%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.6
Celje
9.3
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
NK Domzale
4.7
Celje
4.5
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
NK Domzale
26.4
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Celje
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
49.3%
Under 9.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.4%
Under 3.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.5%
Under 21.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L11D03L11D01L20W00D10W01LA·RUD18/05H·TRI25/05A·RAD18/07H·OLI26/07A·MUR02/08A·BRA09/08H·CEL17/08A·NK 22/08H·KOP29/08A·PRI14/09← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.601.070.500.750.69
vs Stronger (1)2.000.002.000.00--
vs Similar (18)0.780.831.000.860.640.82
vs Weaker (11)1.000.271.000.171.000.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D11D10W11D10W01L21W01L10WH·CEL20/07A·PAK24/07A·NK 27/07H·PAK31/07H·KOP03/08A·PRI10/08H·BRA16/08H·RAD23/08A·OLI31/08H·MUR13/09
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.431.060.500.500.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.670.600.880.750.430.43
vs Weaker (15)0.930.271.250.250.570.29
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W00D00D20W03L20W00D13LA·RUD18/05H·TRI25/05A·RAD18/07H·OLI26/07A·MUR02/08A·BRA09/08H·CEL17/08A·NK 22/08H·KOP29/08A·PRI14/09← 2. SNL1. SNL →
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.430.930.431.120.44
vs Stronger (1)0.003.000.003.00--
vs Similar (18)1.060.390.860.291.180.45
vs Weaker (11)1.090.271.170.171.000.40
Clean sheet %70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Maribor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MariborMaribor

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L10W01L11D10W32W30W00D00DH·CEL20/07A·PAK24/07A·NK 27/07H·PAK31/07H·KOP03/08A·PRI10/08H·BRA16/08H·RAD23/08A·OLI31/08H·MUR13/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.601.190.620.860.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.800.801.001.000.570.57
vs Weaker (15)1.270.401.380.251.140.57
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maribor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls84.7%--------
Over 2.5 cards78.9%--------
Under 5.5 cards75.4%--------
Under 3.574.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.574.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners74.0%--------
Over 21.5 fouls72.5%--------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
PRI (10)
€1m
Aluminij's squad is €6m less valuable than Maribor's (€4m vs €10m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (3)
€0m
Aluminij's attack is €3m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €5m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
PRI (2)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij's midfield is €1m less valuable than Maribor's (€1m vs €2m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
PRI (5)
€0m
Aluminij's defence is €1m less valuable than Maribor's (€2m vs €3m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
1
ALU wins
0
Draws
3
MAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Maribor · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/24HALU Vs Maribor0-2
11/02/24AMaribor Vs ALU7-0
01/10/23HALU Vs Maribor1-0
30/07/23AMaribor Vs ALU1-0

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/09/25APrimorje Vs ALU4-1
29/08/25HALU Vs Koper1-0
22/08/25ANK Domzale Vs ALU0-2
17/08/25HALU Vs Celje2-3
09/08/25ABravo Vs ALU1-2
02/08/25AMura Vs ALU1-1
26/07/25HALU Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-3
18/07/25ARadomlje Vs ALU1-2
25/05/25HALU Vs Triglav1-2
18/05/25ARudar Vs ALU0-3

MariborMaribor

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/09/25HMAR Vs Mura1-0
31/08/25AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs MAR1-0
23/08/25HMAR Vs Radomlje5-1
16/08/25HMAR Vs Bravo3-3
10/08/25APrimorje Vs MAR0-2
03/08/25HMAR Vs Koper2-2
31/07/25HMAR Vs Paks1-1
27/07/25ANK Domzale Vs MAR1-2
24/07/25APaks Vs MAR1-0
20/07/25HMAR Vs Celje1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.68
HomeWLLLW1.74
AwayWDWWL1.63
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%52%48%
AVG goals2.902.743.04
Over 1.5 %84%83%85%
Over 2.5 %58%57%59%
Over 3.5 %30%22%37%
Scored1.621.611.63
Conceded1.281.131.41
BTTS58%57%59%
Clean Sheet26%30%22%
Corners18.00-18.00
Cards6.00-6.00
Maribor
Maribor
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.64
HomeDDDWW1.92
AwayDLWWL1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%56%36%
AVG goals2.623.042.20
Over 1.5 %76%80%72%
Over 2.5 %48%56%40%
Over 3.5 %22%36%8%
Scored1.622.001.24
Conceded1.001.040.96
BTTS58%64%52%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners10.00-10.00
Cards4.00-4.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3474
68%
2.2
8532+53
3.4
85%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
7162.50.9
-
2KoperKoper3467
59%
2.0
7143+28
3.4
82%
68%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3232.11.3
-
3BravoBravo3462
56%
1.8
6251+11
3.3
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.81.5
-
4MariborMaribor3353
45%
1.6
5740+17
2.9
82%
58%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
5231.71.2
-
5Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3352
45%
1.6
4740+7
2.6
79%
58%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6151.41.2
-
6RadomljeRadomlje3445
38%
1.3
5063-13
3.3
97%
79%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.51.9
-
7AluminijAluminij3436
29%
1.1
4261-19
3.0
85%
71%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.21.8
-
8MuraMura3431
24%
0.9
3555-20
2.6
76%
53%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.01.6
-
9PrimorjePrimorje3623
17%
0.6
3175-44
2.9
83%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.92.1
-
10NK DomzaleNK Domzale1812
17%
0.7
1738-21
3.1
89%
61%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.1
-
11NaftaNafta24
50%
2.0
10+1
0.5
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.50.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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