Pythia gives Aluminij a 45% win probability against Mura in the Slovenia: 1. SNL on 2023-08-25, with 23% for the draw and 31% for Mura. The model estimates around 3.6 total goals, with 3 the most likely total (21%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (9.6%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (89%), Over 1.5 (88%), Under 5.5 cards (81%), Over 21.5 fouls (79%).
Results analysis
Aluminij’s recent run of LWWDL left them looking shaky after a 0-1 loss to Koper, while Mura, still nursing two straight defeats, entered the match with a 0-2 setback against Bravo. The pre-match favourite was a home win at 45%, but the final score of 0-1 saw the away side triumph, so the model’s call was wrong. The model’s other selections unfolded as follows: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 89.3%, Over 1.5 missed at 88.3%, Under 5.5 cards hit at 81.0%, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 79.4%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 73.7%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 71.0%, and BTTS Yes missed at 70.1%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aluminij win✗ Miss
45.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mura win✓ Hit
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.03
2.19
1.12
1.86
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.78
0.94
2.00
1.33
1.56
0.56
vs Weaker (11)
2.45
1.09
2.50
0.67
2.40
1.60
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.33
1.53
1.27
1.13
1.40
vs Stronger (13)
1.23
1.85
1.60
1.40
1.00
2.12
vs Similar (17)
1.41
0.94
1.50
1.20
1.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.3%
Under 1.5
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
69.8%
Under 2.5
30.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
48.6%
Under 3.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.1%
No
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
7.2%
2-2
7.0%
3-1
5.7%
2-0
5.3%
3-2
4.6%
1-0
4.5%
Aluminij goals ↓
Mura goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
2.0%
0.8%
1
4.5%
9.6%
7.2%
3.9%
1.6%
2
5.3%
8.6%
7.0%
3.8%
1.6%
3
3.5%
5.7%
4.6%
2.5%
1.0%
4
1.7%
2.8%
2.3%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Mura goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Aluminij is 0.25 points worse than Mura in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.11).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
Maribor
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Aluminij
1.03
Rogaška
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij is 0.06 goals worse than Mura in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Aluminij is 0.39 goals worse than Mura in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.58).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Aluminij is 0.5 percentage points better than Mura in terms of average possession (46% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aluminij
For 4.0 · Against 5.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 12.4 · Total 27.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Mura
For 5.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 12.8 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
9.6
8.7
11.0
0.7
0.6
0.7
27.2
26.0
29.0
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
23.0
23.0
-
vs Similar (21)
10.5
10.0
11.0
1.1
1.0
1.2
28.2
27.5
29.0
vs Weaker (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
33%
100%
11%
11%
11%
80%
100%
50%
% under line
40%
67%
0%
89%
89%
89%
20%
0%
50%
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
10.7
9.9
11.5
2.8
3.3
2.4
26.3
26.8
26.0
vs Stronger (18)
11.6
12.2
11.4
3.2
2.5
3.8
25.8
26.8
25.4
vs Similar (26)
9.9
8.9
11.7
2.5
3.7
1.2
27.0
26.8
27.5
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
60%
50%
69%
39%
50%
27%
92%
92%
93%
% under line
40%
50%
31%
61%
50%
73%
8%
8%
7%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
10.7
Celje
10.0
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.6
Aluminij
9.6
Koper
9.3
Maribor
9.1
Bravo
8.9
NK Domzale
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NK Domzale
5.0
Aluminij
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Mura
4.4
Koper
4.1
Celje
4.1
Bravo
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
27.5
Aluminij
27.2
Bravo
26.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
26.4
Mura
26.3
Maribor
25.3
Celje
24.2
Koper
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
59.0%
Under 9.5
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.4%
Under 3.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
79.4%
Under 21.5
20.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.40
1.12
0.31
0.86
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.28
0.89
0.33
0.56
0.22
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.64
1.50
0.33
1.40
1.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.73
0.87
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.00
0.80
0.80
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.59
0.70
0.90
0.71
0.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.63
1.06
0.81
1.00
0.43
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
0.67
1.11
1.00
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.45
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Mura) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mura
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.80
0.40
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
0.85
0.80
0.60
0.62
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.35
0.80
0.30
0.57
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mura over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
Aluminij's squad is €1m less valuable than Mura's (€4m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij and Mura have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij and Mura have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij and Mura have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Celje
Maribor
Olimpija Ljubljana
Bravo
Koper
NK Domzale
Rogaška
Radomlje
Nafta