Nafta's recent two-game winning streak against stronger opponents is a notable storyline heading into this match against Aluminij. However, the model disagrees with the market, favouring an away win. Aluminij's home form is concerning, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against stronger opponents. Nafta, on the other hand, has been scoring at a rate of 1.82 goals per match while conceding just 0.36 away to weaker opponents. The model's selection is an Away win, the favourite at 43% probability.
The expected total goals are 2.1, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 14.4% probability. The model suggests Under 3.5 goals at 84.6% probability, an edge of 18% over the market. Aluminij's home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 32%, and the away win percentage is 43%. The model's other selections include Under 3.5 goals (84.6%), with no other options provided.
Results analysis
The draw between Aluminij and Nafta marks the end of Nafta's three-match winning streak. This result extends Aluminij's run of draws, which now stands at four matches. The final score of 1-1 is a fitting outcome, given the predicted most likely scores of 1-1, 0-1, and 0-0. The model's selection, Away win, was incorrect, as Nafta failed to secure the victory. The model's selection had a pre-match probability of 43%. The suggested pick of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aluminij win✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied 39.5% · @ 2.31
Edge
-14.9%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.40
William Hil
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
Bet365
2.35
Betano
2.35
Draw✓ Hit
32.2%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.32
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.53
10Bet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Dafabet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Nafta win✗ Miss
43.2%
Avg Implied 33.1% · @ 2.75
Edge
+10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.91
Dafabet
2.85
Superbet
2.82
Betano
2.82
1xBet
2.81
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.87
1.27
1.47
0.87
2.27
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.67
2.00
1.00
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (27)
1.07
1.78
1.21
1.50
0.92
2.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
0.77
2.40
1.00
1.87
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.81
0.88
1.88
1.12
1.75
0.62
vs Weaker (14)
2.50
0.64
3.00
0.86
2.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.3%
@ 1.21-13.8%
Under 1.5
37.7%
@ 3.86+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.23
888Sport
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.19
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
888Sport
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
33.9%
@ 1.73-19.9%
Under 2.5
66.1%
@ 2.01+19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.76
SBO
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.08
Bet365
2.08
Betano
2.05
10Bet
2.05
SBO
2.03
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.4%
@ 2.77-17.9%
Under 3.5
84.6%
@ 1.38+17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Pinnacle
2.84
Unibet
2.80
888Sport
2.80
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
41.5%
@ 1.58-16.8%
No
58.5%
@ 2.21+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.60
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
No
Betfair
2.25
Betano
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.4%@ 6.07+7.1%
0-1
14.1%@ 9.60+9.5%
0-0
14.1%@ 11.26+10.1%
1-0
9.5%@ 8.78+4.4%
0-2
9.4%@ 13.99+6.2%
1-2
7.9%@ 9.26+3.1%
2-1
5.6%@ 8.47+0.3%
2-0
4.6%@ 11.61+0.8%
Aluminij goals ↓
Nafta goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
9.4%
3.8%
1.1%
1
9.5%
14%
7.9%
3.2%
1.0%
2
4.6%
5.6%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.3%
1.6%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Nafta goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Aluminij is 0.14 points better than Nafta in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Aluminij is 0.57 goals worse than Nafta in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Aluminij is 0.57 goals better than Nafta in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nafta
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (18)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.2
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.8
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Celje
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.6%
@ 2.01+5.6%
Under 9.5
48.4%
@ 1.71-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Betano
2.02
1xBet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.74
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.4%
Under 3.5
40.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
72.4%
Under 21.5
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.93
0.47
0.87
0.13
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.85
0.50
0.86
0.15
0.85
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.30
0.73
0.33
1.00
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.38
0.62
0.38
1.00
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.21
0.86
0.29
1.00
0.14
Clean sheet %
73% (+47pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.93
0.80
0.60
0.73
1.27
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.74
0.93
0.71
0.64
0.77
1.23
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Nafta) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nafta
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.67
0.67
0.87
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.57
0.43
2.14
0.57
1.00
0.29
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nafta over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.6%
1.38
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
888Sport
1.40
+17.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.0%
1.21
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.20
-
-
-
-2.7%
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Aluminij's squad is €2m more valuable than Nafta's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Aluminij and Nafta have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij and Nafta have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij and Nafta have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Maribor
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Brinje-Grosuplje
Olimpija Ljubljana
Mura
Radomlje