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Aluminij vs NK Domzale Result & Analysis

Date: 06/12/2023
Time: 14:00
Final 0-5
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
34%
25%
40%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✗ Miss
34.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale win✓ Hit
40.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L12L31W10W14L02L00D01L11D32WH·ROG16/09A·NK 22/09A·CEL27/09H·MAR01/10A·KOP08/10H·RAD22/10A·OLI29/10A·MUR04/11H·BRA10/11H·KOP26/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.231.801.401.471.07
vs Stronger (2)2.501.502.002.003.001.00
vs Similar (23)1.391.221.671.331.091.09
vs Weaker (5)2.401.202.501.502.331.00
Clean sheet %27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W02L23L30W02L13L12L10W21W30WH·ALU22/09H·MUR27/09A·BRA30/09H·ROG08/10H·OLI21/10A·CEL27/10H·MAR04/11A·KOP11/11A·ROG25/11H·RAD02/12
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.471.271.471.531.47
vs Stronger (13)1.231.541.001.801.381.38
vs Similar (17)1.531.411.401.301.711.57
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.3%
Under 2.5
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.4%
1-2
8.7%
2-1
8.0%
2-2
6.7%
0-1
5.7%
0-2
5.7%
1-0
5.1%
0-0
5.1%
Aluminij goals ↓
NK Domzale goals →
01234
05.1%5.7%5.7%3.2%1.3%
15.1%11%8.7%4.9%2.0%
24.7%8.0%6.7%3.7%1.6%
32.4%4.1%3.4%1.9%0.8%
40.9%1.6%1.3%0.7%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = NK Domzale goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Celje
2.19
Maribor
1.94
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.78
Bravo
1.39
Koper
1.33
NK Domzale
1.19
Mura
1.11
Rogaška
1.00
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij
0.86
Aluminij is 0.33 points worse than NK Domzale in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.19).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Celje
2.08
Maribor
1.92
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.92
NK Domzale
1.44
Koper
1.42
Bravo
1.17
Mura
1.08
Rogaška
1.03
Aluminij
1.03
Radomlje
0.92
Aluminij is 0.42 goals worse than NK Domzale in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.44).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.89
Celje
0.94
Bravo
1.17
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.22
Koper
1.36
Radomlje
1.42
Mura
1.58
NK Domzale
1.67
Rogaška
1.78
Aluminij
1.97
Aluminij is 0.31 goals worse than NK Domzale in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.67).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Olimpija Ljubljana
62%
Maribor
59%
Koper
56%
Aluminij
46%
Mura
46%
NK Domzale
44%
Celje
41%
Bravo
41%
Aluminij is 2.5 percentage points better than NK Domzale in terms of average possession (46% vs 44%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

AluminijAluminij

For 4.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 10.1

🚩 Corners

1304623671954654467648410513109118131012H·KOPH·BRAA·MURA·OLIA·KOPH·MARA·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MUR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.4

🟨 Cards

9032252212136434531325743197945H·KOPH·BRAA·MURA·OLIA·KOPH·MARA·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MUR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.8 · Against 12.4 · Total 26.2

⚠️ Fouls

350122212101712141968211111523121214101134222933143216352621H·KOPH·BRAA·MURA·OLIA·KOPH·MARA·CELA·NK A·BRAH·MUR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

For 5.6 · Against 6.6 · Total 12.2

🚩 Corners

1504653196669121766869391081012151313141512A·KOPH·MARA·CELH·OLIA·BRAH·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARH·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0

🟨 Cards

90424212212154312316423339451A·KOPH·MARA·CELH·OLIA·BRAH·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARH·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.7

⚠️ Fouls

3501912151211891211612712231418121271531271921171935322422A·KOPH·MARA·CELH·OLIA·BRAH·MURH·ALUH·KOPA·MARH·CEL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AluminijAluminij

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (48)9.99.110.61.61.51.726.526.726.4
vs Stronger (2)7.06.08.04.01.07.019.523.016.0
vs Similar (32)10.49.711.02.22.22.127.627.327.9
vs Weaker (14)---0.00.00.0---
% over line67%57%75%25%25%25%73%86%62%
% under line33%43%25%75%75%75%27%14%38%
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.59.98.93.13.42.926.826.926.8
vs Stronger (22)9.29.29.23.54.03.226.727.126.2
vs Similar (28)9.710.88.62.82.92.627.126.627.7
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line45%47%44%44%52%36%77%81%73%
% under line55%53%56%56%48%64%23%19%27%
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Celje
10.0
Aluminij
9.9
Koper
9.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
NK Domzale
9.4
Maribor
9.1

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.2
NK Domzale
4.8
Maribor
4.8
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.6
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.2
Celje
3.9
Bravo
3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
NK Domzale
26.9
Aluminij
26.5
Maribor
25.5
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.3
Bravo
25.3
Koper
24.9
Mura
24.9
Celje
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
55.4%
Under 9.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
69.1%
Under 3.5
30.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
78.4%
Under 21.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L10W01L10W03L01L00D00D01L21WH·ROG16/09A·NK 22/09A·CEL27/09H·MAR01/10A·KOP08/10H·RAD22/10A·OLI29/10A·MUR04/11H·BRA10/11H·KOP26/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.630.930.670.670.60
vs Stronger (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.610.750.750.550.45
vs Weaker (5)1.600.802.000.501.331.00
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L22D10W00D01L11D00D00D20WH·ALU22/09H·MUR27/09A·BRA30/09H·ROG08/10H·OLI21/10A·CEL27/10H·MAR04/11A·KOP11/11A·ROG25/11H·RAD02/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.730.470.670.800.80
vs Stronger (13)0.690.540.600.600.750.50
vs Similar (17)0.590.880.400.700.861.14
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L30W00D11D01L00D01L10W11DH·ROG16/09A·NK 22/09A·CEL27/09H·MAR01/10A·KOP08/10H·RAD22/10A·OLI29/10A·MUR04/11H·BRA10/11H·KOP26/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.600.870.730.800.47
vs Stronger (2)2.001.001.002.003.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.740.610.920.580.550.64
vs Weaker (5)0.800.400.501.001.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (NK Domzale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W01L01L20W02L12L01L10W21W10WH·ALU22/09H·MUR27/09A·BRA30/09H·ROG08/10H·OLI21/10A·CEL27/10H·MAR04/11A·KOP11/11A·ROG25/11H·RAD02/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.730.800.800.730.67
vs Stronger (13)0.541.000.401.200.620.88
vs Similar (17)0.940.531.000.600.860.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
NK Domzale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls88.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards84.8%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.584.1%-------✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls78.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
NAF (18)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
ALU wins
0
Draws
1
ND wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs NK Domzale · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23ANK Domzale Vs ALU2-1

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/11/23HALU Vs Koper3-2
10/11/23HALU Vs Bravo1-1
04/11/23AMura Vs ALU1-0
29/10/23AOlimpija Ljubljana Vs ALU0-0
22/10/23HALU Vs Radomlje0-2
08/10/23AKoper Vs ALU4-1
01/10/23HALU Vs Maribor1-0
27/09/23ACelje Vs ALU1-3
22/09/23ANK Domzale Vs ALU2-1
16/09/23HALU Vs Rogaška1-2

NK DomzaleNK Domzale

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/12/23HND Vs Radomlje3-0
25/11/23ARogaška Vs ND1-2
11/11/23AKoper Vs ND0-1
04/11/23HND Vs Maribor1-2
27/10/23ACelje Vs ND3-1
21/10/23HND Vs Olimpija Ljubljana0-2
08/10/23HND Vs Rogaška3-0
30/09/23ABravo Vs ND3-2
27/09/23HND Vs Mura0-2
22/09/23HND Vs Aluminij2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDLDW1.73
HomeLWLDW1.62
AwayLWLDL1.83
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %50%46%54%
AVG goals2.752.832.67
Over 1.5 %71%71%71%
Over 2.5 %48%50%46%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored1.691.751.62
Conceded1.061.081.04
BTTS50%50%50%
Clean Sheet35%33%38%
Corners9.939.1410.62
Cards5.205.295.12
NK Domzale
NK Domzale
Slovenia: 1. SNL
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.34
HomeLWLLW1.16
AwayLLLWW1.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%28%44%
AVG goals2.722.762.68
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %56%64%48%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.401.281.52
Conceded1.321.481.16
BTTS58%60%56%
Clean Sheet26%20%32%
Corners9.459.948.94
Cards4.734.944.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1CeljeCelje3679
67%
2.2
7534+41
3.0
86%
61%
42%
9.8
55%
3.9
55%
21.8
60%
14
7162.10.9
41%
2MariborMaribor3670
56%
1.9
6932+37
2.8
81%
58%
31%
8.8
42%
4.4
68%
24.3
68%
10
5231.90.9
59%
3Olimpija LjubljanaOlimpija Ljubljana3664
50%
1.8
6944+25
3.1
81%
56%
42%
9.9
74%
4.1
53%
24.0
61%
12
6151.91.2
62%
4BravoBravo3650
33%
1.4
4242+0
2.3
83%
36%
14%
10.8
68%
3.6
53%
21.3
47%
4
1121.21.2
41%
5KoperKoper3648
33%
1.3
5149+2
2.8
78%
56%
31%
9.1
53%
3.9
59%
26.1
81%
8
3231.41.4
56%
6NK DomzaleNK Domzale3643
36%
1.2
5260-8
3.1
86%
64%
36%
11.3
74%
3.8
53%
24.3
58%
0
0001.41.7
44%
7MuraMura3640
28%
1.1
3957-18
2.7
78%
44%
33%
11.4
74%
3.7
53%
21.6
53%
5
2121.11.6
46%
8RogaškaRogaška3636
28%
1.0
3764-27
2.8
78%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
9RadomljeRadomlje3633
19%
0.9
3351-18
2.3
78%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2120.91.4
-
10AluminijAluminij3631
22%
0.9
3771-34
3.0
78%
53%
39%
10.1
65%
4.8
70%
26.4
75%
4
2121.02.0
46%
11NaftaNafta00
0%
0.0
00+0
-
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.00.0
-
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

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