The contest between Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home and away win probabilities sit at 28% and 41% respectively, while a draw is 31%. The expected total goals hover at 2.3, with the most likely total being two goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.5% chance. Aluminij, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Olimpija Ljubljana, on the road, averages 0.78 goals scored and 1.44 conceded against similar teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1%), Under 4.5 (92.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.0%) and Away +2 handicap (89.1%). Both sides are coming off recent setbacks - Aluminij lost 0-1 to Koper, while Olimpija Ljubljana drew 0-0 with Radomlje - adding to the uncertainty.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Aluminij win
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana win
45.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Aluminij
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.73
1.12
1.38
1.00
2.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
1.00
1.50
0.50
3.50
vs Similar (26)
1.12
1.62
1.14
1.36
1.08
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.00
1.50
0.94
0.79
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.06
1.33
1.33
1.22
0.78
1.44
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
0.50
1.71
0.57
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.1%
Under 1.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.2%
Under 2.5
60.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.1%
Under 3.5
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%
0-1
12.9%
0-0
11.8%
0-2
9.5%
1-2
8.6%
1-0
8.2%
2-1
5.8%
2-0
4.3%
Aluminij goals ↓
Olimpija Ljubljana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.5%
4.3%
1.4%
1
8.2%
14%
8.6%
3.9%
1.3%
2
4.3%
5.8%
3.9%
1.8%
0.6%
3
1.3%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Olimpija Ljubljana goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Maribor
2.14
Celje
1.83
Koper
1.71
Bravo
1.57
Aluminij
1.14
Olimpija Ljubljana
1.14
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.14
Nafta
1.00
Mura
1.00
Radomlje
0.83
Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana are level in average points per game (both 1.14).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Maribor
1.86
Nafta
1.71
Celje
1.67
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.57
Radomlje
1.17
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Mura
1.14
Koper
1.00
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.43
Aluminij is 0.71 goals better than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.43).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Maribor
0.71
Koper
0.71
Olimpija Ljubljana
0.71
Bravo
1.14
Aluminij
1.14
Celje
1.33
Radomlje
1.67
Nafta
1.71
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.71
Mura
2.00
Aluminij is 0.43 goals worse than Olimpija Ljubljana in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 0.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Aluminij
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Olimpija Ljubljana
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Aluminij
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Mura
11.1
Aluminij
10.1
Olimpija Ljubljana
9.7
Bravo
9.6
Celje
9.4
Koper
9.2
Maribor
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aluminij
5.0
Celje
4.9
Maribor
4.7
Olimpija Ljubljana
4.7
Mura
4.2
Koper
4.0
Bravo
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Aluminij
27.0
Maribor
25.2
Olimpija Ljubljana
25.2
Celje
25.0
Koper
24.9
Bravo
24.7
Mura
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
51.2%
Under 9.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.6%
Under 3.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.0%
Under 21.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Aluminij or Draw
54.3%
Avg Implied -
24%
30%
46%
covers Aluminij + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aluminij or Olimpija Ljubljana
69.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
30%
46%
covers Aluminij + Olimpija Ljubljana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Olimpija Ljubljana
76.1%
Avg Implied -
24%
30%
46%
covers Draw + Olimpija Ljubljana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Aluminij over/under 0.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5
Over
23.0%
Under
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 3.5
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5
Over
74.0%
Under
26.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5
Over
39.0%
Under
61.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 3.5
Over
4.8%
Under
95.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Aluminij, so a minus line means Aluminij give that many goals of a start and Olimpija Ljubljana receive them. At -1, Aluminij must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aluminij win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Aluminij)
Aluminij -2
2.2%
Draw -2
6.3%
Olimpija Ljubljana +2
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Aluminij)
Aluminij -1
8.5%
Draw -1
15.3%
Olimpija Ljubljana +1
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Aluminij)
Aluminij +1
54.3%
Draw +1
23.5%
Olimpija Ljubljana -1
22.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Aluminij)
Aluminij +2
77.7%
Draw +2
14.1%
Olimpija Ljubljana -2
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Aluminij
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.44
0.75
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (4)
0.00
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.81
0.50
0.79
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.37
0.69
0.19
0.21
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.50
0.56
0.33
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.17
0.86
0.00
0.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
67% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Aluminij
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.87
0.69
0.62
0.71
1.14
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.81
0.64
0.57
0.75
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Olimpija Ljubljana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olimpija Ljubljana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.81
0.75
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.83
0.78
0.89
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (12)
0.83
0.33
0.86
0.57
0.80
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olimpija Ljubljana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Olimpija Ljubljana · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Álex Blanco43%
Peter Agba17%
Ivan Durdov14%
Marko Brest12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Reda Boultam50%
David Sualehe38%
Peter Agba33%
Jorge Silva29%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Manuel Pedreno20%
Thalisson20%
Justas Lasickas17%
Raul Florucz17%
Agustín Doffo14%
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Matevž Vidovšek12%
Antonio Marin0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Dino Kojić0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Raul Florucz33%
Marko Brest25%
Marko Ristić25%
Agustín Doffo14%
Antonio Marin0%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Álex Blanco0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Dino Kojić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Álex Blanco14%
Ahmet Muhamedbegović12%
Antonio Marin0%
Agustín Doffo0%
Ivan Durdov0%
Reda Boultam0%
Justas Lasickas0%
Jorge Silva0%
David Sualehe0%
Matevž Vidovšek0%
Diogo Pinto0%
Marko Brest0%
Jordi Govea0%
Manuel Pedreno0%
Peter Agba0%
Raul Florucz0%
Marcel Ratnik0%
Thalisson0%
Marko Ristić0%
Dino Kojić0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (31)
€14m
OL (27)
€12m
MAR (26)
€10m
KOP (27)
€8m
RAD (21)
€5m
MUR (23)
€5m
BRA (19)
€4m
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
Aluminij's squad is €8m less valuable than Olimpija Ljubljana's (€4m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (12)
€7m
OL (11)
€6m
MAR (10)
€5m
KOP (10)
€3m
RAD (7)
€2m
MUR (8)
€2m
ALU (9)
€2m
BRA (5)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
Aluminij's attack is €4m less valuable than Olimpija Ljubljana's (€2m vs €6m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KOP (7)
€2m
MAR (6)
€2m
CEL (4)
€1m
MUR (5)
€1m
BRA (6)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
OL (3)
€1m
RAD (5)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
NAF (2)
€0m
Aluminij and Olimpija Ljubljana have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CEL (15)
€6m
OL (13)
€5m
MAR (10)
€3m
KOP (10)
€3m
MUR (10)
€2m
RAD (9)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
Aluminij's defence is €3m less valuable than Olimpija Ljubljana's (€2m vs €5m).
Slovenia: 1. SNL 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →
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Maribor
Koper
Celje
Bravo
Brinje-Grosuplje
Nafta
Mura
Radomlje