Aluminij vs Rogaška Result & Analysis

Date: 13/03/2024

Time: 15:45

Final 0-1

Aluminij

40%

23%

36%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

Rogaška

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✗ Miss

40.0%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Draw✗ Miss

23.5%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

Rogaška win✓ Hit

36.5%

Avg Implied -

Best 5 market prices

No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.4

Avg scored

1.0

Avg conceded

2.4

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.17	1.80	1.27	2.07	1.07	1.53
vs Stronger (3)	2.00	2.00	1.50	2.50	3.00	1.00
vs Similar (25)	0.96	1.80	1.23	2.00	0.67	1.58
vs Weaker (2)	2.50	1.50	-	-	2.50	1.50
Clean sheet %	20% (-6pp vs league)

This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rogaška

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.1

Avg scored

1.4

Avg conceded

1.7

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.20	1.77	1.07	1.21	1.31	2.25
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	3.33	0.00	4.00	0.50	3.00
vs Similar (23)	1.13	1.83	1.00	1.09	1.25	2.50
vs Weaker (4)	2.25	0.25	2.00	0.50	2.50	0.00
Clean sheet %	20% (-6pp vs league)

This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

88.8%

Under 1.5

11.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

70.6%

Under 2.5

29.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under

Over 3.5

49.5%

Under 3.5

50.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

71.2%

28.8%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

9.5%

2-1

8.1%

1-2

7.7%

2-2

7.2%

3-1

5.0%

1-3

4.6%

2-0

4.5%

3-2

4.5%

Aluminij goals ↓

	Rogaška goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	3.8%	4.1%	2.4%	1.1%
1	4.0%	9.5%	7.7%	4.6%	2.0%
2	4.5%	8.1%	7.2%	4.3%	1.9%
3	2.8%	5.0%	4.5%	2.7%	1.2%
4	1.3%	2.4%	2.1%	1.2%	0.6%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Rogaška goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Celje

2.19

Maribor

1.94

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.78

Bravo

1.39

Koper

1.33

NK Domzale

1.19

Mura

1.11

Rogaška

1.00

Radomlje

0.92

Aluminij

0.86

Aluminij is 0.14 points worse than Rogaška in terms of average points per game (0.86 vs 1.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Celje

2.08

Maribor

1.92

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.92

NK Domzale

1.44

Koper

1.42

Bravo

1.17

Mura

1.08

Rogaška

1.03

Aluminij

1.03

Radomlje

0.92

Aluminij and Rogaška are level in goals scored per game (both 1.03).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Maribor

0.89

Celje

0.94

Bravo

1.17

Olimpija Ljubljana

1.22

Koper

1.36

Radomlje

1.42

Mura

1.58

NK Domzale

1.67

Rogaška

1.78

Aluminij

1.97

Aluminij is 0.19 goals worse than Rogaška in terms of goals conceded per game (1.97 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %

Olimpija Ljubljana

62%

Maribor

59%

Koper

56%

Aluminij

46%

Mura

46%

NK Domzale

44%

Celje

41%

Bravo

41%

Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Aluminij

For 4.3 · Against 5.9 · Total 10.2

🚩 Corners

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 2.4 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7

🟨 Cards

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

For 13.3 · Against 14.8 · Total 28.1

⚠️ Fouls

ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Rogaška

🚩 Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

🟨 Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠️ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

Aluminij

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	10.1	9.2	11.3	2.2	2.3	2.1	27.0	27.8	26.1
vs Stronger (3)	7.7	7.5	8.0	5.7	5.0	7.0	21.3	24.0	16.0
vs Similar (36)	10.5	9.5	11.7	2.6	2.7	2.4	27.9	28.5	27.2
vs Weaker (11)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	64%	50%	80%	32%	35%	29%	77%	92%	60%
% under line	36%	50%	20%	68%	65%	71%	23%	8%	40%

This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rogaška

Split	Corners			Cards			Fouls
Split	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy	Tot	Hme	Awy
Overall (50)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Stronger (3)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Similar (33)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
vs Weaker (14)	-	-	-	0.0	0.0	0.0	-	-	-
% over line	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	-	-	-
% under line	-	-	-	100%	100%	100%	-	-	-

This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

🚩 Total Corners

Match total corners / game

Mura

11.1

Aluminij

10.1

Celje

9.8

Bravo

9.6

NK Domzale

9.6

Olimpija Ljubljana

9.5

Koper

9.2

Maribor

8.9

🟨 Total Cards

Match total cards / game

Aluminij

5.0

Maribor

4.8

NK Domzale

4.7

Olimpija Ljubljana

4.5

Mura

4.2

Celje

4.2

Koper

4.0

Bravo

3.8

⚠️ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game

Aluminij

27.0

NK Domzale

26.4

Maribor

25.4

Koper

24.9

Olimpija Ljubljana

24.8

Bravo

24.7

Mura

24.2

Celje

23.2

Corners O/U 9.5

Over 9.5

49.4%

Under 9.5

50.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Cards O/U 3.5

Over 3.5

64.0%

Under 3.5

36.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Fouls O/U 21.5

Over 21.5

78.9%

Under 21.5

21.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.7

Avg scored

0.4

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.53	0.97	0.53	1.07	0.53	0.87
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	1.00	0.50	1.00	0.00	1.00
vs Similar (25)	0.48	0.92	0.54	1.08	0.42	0.75
vs Weaker (2)	1.50	1.50	-	-	1.50	1.50
Clean sheet %	40% (+14pp vs league)

This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rogaška

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.3

Avg scored

0.8

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.70	0.57	0.47	0.53	0.93	0.60
vs Stronger (3)	0.00	1.33	0.00	3.00	0.00	0.50
vs Similar (22)	0.73	0.59	0.45	0.45	1.00	0.73
vs Weaker (5)	1.00	0.00	0.67	0.00	1.50	0.00
Clean sheet %	53% (+27pp vs league)

This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Rogaška over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Rogaška over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Rogaška over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.7

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

1.1

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.63	0.83	0.73	1.00	0.53	0.67
vs Stronger (3)	1.67	1.00	1.00	1.50	3.00	0.00
vs Similar (25)	0.48	0.88	0.69	0.92	0.25	0.83
vs Weaker (2)	1.00	0.00	-	-	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	47% (+20pp vs league)

This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Rogaška

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

1.2

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.50	1.10	0.53	0.60	0.47	1.60
vs Stronger (3)	0.33	2.00	0.00	1.00	0.50	2.50
vs Similar (22)	0.45	1.18	0.55	0.64	0.36	1.73
vs Weaker (5)	0.80	0.20	0.67	0.33	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	37% (+10pp vs league)

This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

0.0%

Under 0.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

0.0%

Under 1.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

0.0%

Under 2.5

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Rogaška over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Rogaška over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

Rogaška over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

0.0%

Under

0.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Over 19.5 fouls	89.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Over 1.5	88.8%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards	81.4%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Over 21.5 fouls	78.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 11.5 corners	73.9%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Under 5.5 cards	72.1%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
BTTS Yes	71.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss
Over 2.5	70.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (31)

€14m

OL (27)

€12m

MAR (26)

€10m

KOP (27)

€8m

RAD (21)

€5m

MUR (23)

€5m

BRA (19)

€4m

ALU (24)

€4m

NAF (18)

€2m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (12)

€7m

OL (11)

€6m

MAR (10)

€5m

KOP (10)

€3m

RAD (7)

€2m

MUR (8)

€2m

ALU (9)

€2m

BRA (5)

€1m

NAF (8)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

KOP (7)

€2m

MAR (6)

€2m

CEL (4)

€1m

MUR (5)

€1m

BRA (6)

€1m

OL (3)

€1m

RAD (5)

€1m

ALU (5)

€1m

NAF (2)

€0m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

CEL (15)

€6m

OL (13)

€5m

MAR (10)

€3m

KOP (10)

€3m

MUR (10)

€2m

RAD (9)

€2m

BRA (8)

€2m

ALU (10)

€2m

NAF (8)

€1m

No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings

ALU wins

Draws

ROG wins

Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Rogaška · H/A from ALU

Date	H/A	Game	Score
16/12/23	A	Rogaška Vs ALU	0-1
16/09/23	H	ALU Vs Rogaška	1-2
25/11/22	H	ALU Vs Rogaška	1-2
13/08/22	A	Rogaška Vs ALU	0-1

Aluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
09/03/24	A	Bravo Vs ALU	0-0
01/03/24	H	ALU Vs Mura	2-0
24/02/24	H	ALU Vs Olimpija Ljubljana	0-4
20/02/24	A	Radomlje Vs ALU	1-2
16/02/24	H	ALU Vs Koper	1-2
11/02/24	A	Maribor Vs ALU	7-0
16/12/23	A	Rogaška Vs ALU	0-1
09/12/23	H	ALU Vs Celje	1-3
06/12/23	H	ALU Vs NK Domzale	0-5
26/11/23	H	ALU Vs Koper	3-2

Rogaška

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
10/03/24	H	ROG Vs Radomlje	1-0
03/03/24	A	Koper Vs ROG	1-2
25/02/24	H	ROG Vs Maribor	0-0
22/02/24	A	Celje Vs ROG	4-1
17/02/24	H	ROG Vs NK Domzale	4-1
10/02/24	A	Olimpija Ljubljana Vs ROG	2-2
16/12/23	H	ROG Vs Aluminij	0-1
10/12/23	A	Bravo Vs ROG	3-2
07/12/23	A	Mura Vs ROG	3-1
25/11/23	H	ROG Vs NK Domzale	1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LWLWD	1.54
Home	LLLLW	1.46
Away	LWLWD	1.62

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	44%	42%	46%
AVG goals	2.98	3.23	2.71
Over 1.5 %	78%	85%	71%
Over 2.5 %	54%	62%	46%
Over 3.5 %	44%	50%	38%
Scored	1.58	1.73	1.42
Conceded	1.40	1.50	1.29
BTTS	50%	54%	46%
Clean Sheet	32%	27%	38%
Corners	10.14	9.17	11.30
Cards	4.95	4.92	5.00

Rogaška

Slovenia: 1. SNL

Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	WLDWW	1.68
Home	LLWDW	1.64
Away	LLDLW	1.72

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	52%	48%	56%
AVG goals	2.76	2.60	2.92
Over 1.5 %	78%	72%	84%
Over 2.5 %	52%	44%	60%
Over 3.5 %	30%	32%	28%
Scored	1.44	1.48	1.40
Conceded	1.32	1.12	1.52
BTTS	42%	40%	44%
Clean Sheet	34%	32%	36%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Celje	36	79	67%	2.2	75	34	+41	3.0	86%	61%	42%	9.8	55%	3.9	55%	21.8	60%	14	7	1	6	2.1	0.9	41%
2	Maribor	36	70	56%	1.9	69	32	+37	2.8	81%	58%	31%	8.8	42%	4.4	68%	24.3	68%	10	5	2	3	1.9	0.9	59%
3	Olimpija Ljubljana	36	64	50%	1.8	69	44	+25	3.1	81%	56%	42%	9.9	74%	4.1	53%	24.0	61%	12	6	1	5	1.9	1.2	62%
4	Bravo	36	50	33%	1.4	42	42	+0	2.3	83%	36%	14%	10.8	68%	3.6	53%	21.3	47%	4	1	1	2	1.2	1.2	41%
5	Koper	36	48	33%	1.3	51	49	+2	2.8	78%	56%	31%	9.1	53%	3.9	59%	26.1	81%	8	3	2	3	1.4	1.4	56%
6	NK Domzale	36	43	36%	1.2	52	60	-8	3.1	86%	64%	36%	11.3	74%	3.8	53%	24.3	58%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.7	44%
7	Mura	36	40	28%	1.1	39	57	-18	2.7	78%	44%	33%	11.4	74%	3.7	53%	21.6	53%	5	2	1	2	1.1	1.6	46%
8	Rogaška	36	36	28%	1.0	37	64	-27	2.8	78%	58%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.8	-
9	Radomlje	36	33	19%	0.9	33	51	-18	2.3	78%	36%	22%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	5	2	1	2	0.9	1.4	-
10	Aluminij	36	31	22%	0.9	37	71	-34	3.0	78%	53%	39%	10.1	65%	4.8	70%	26.4	75%	4	2	1	2	1.0	2.0	46%
11	Nafta	0	0	0%	0.0	0	0	+0	-	0%	0%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	2	1	0	1	0.0	0.0	-

Slovenia: 1. SNL 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 1. SNL stats & trends →

← all matches

Aluminij vs Rogaška Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aluminij

Rogaška

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Aluminij

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Rogaška

🚩 Corners

🟨 Cards

⚠️ Fouls

Aluminij

Rogaška

🚩 Total Corners

🟨 Total Cards

⚠️ Total Fouls

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aluminij

Rogaška

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aluminij

Rogaška

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Aluminij

Rogaška

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature