This opponent (Treowen Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treowen Stars
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.0
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
2.33
1.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
4.00
0.00
-
-
4.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
3.50
1.00
3.00
0.00
4.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
70.2%
Under 2.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.0%
Under 3.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
70.7%
No
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.4%
2-0
4.9%
3-2
4.6%
1-0 ✓
4.3%
Ammanford AFC goals ↓
Treowen Stars goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
3.7%
3.9%
2.2%
0.9%
1
4.3%
9.6%
7.4%
4.2%
1.8%
2
4.9%
8.4%
7.1%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.2%
5.4%
4.6%
2.6%
1.1%
4
1.5%
2.6%
2.2%
1.2%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ammanford AFC goals (down), columns = Treowen Stars goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Llandudno
2.67
Trefelin
2.60
Cambrian & Clydach
2.53
Airbus UK
2.50
Holywell
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.94
Newtown AFC
1.60
Rhyl
1.53
Carmarthen Town
1.50
Aberystwyth Town
1.47
Guilsfield
1.43
Mold Alexandra
1.37
Cardiff Draconians
1.33
Denbigh Town
1.33
Treowen Stars
1.23
Caersws
1.23
Llantwit Major
1.23
Brickfield Rangers
1.23
Newport City
1.23
Holyhead Hotspur
1.20
Penrhyncoch
1.17
Pontypridd Town
1.13
Afan Lido
1.00
Buckley Town
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.97
Flint Mountain
0.97
Gresford Athletic
0.93
Baglan Dragons
0.81
Ynyshir Albions
0.77
Ruthin Town
0.77
Cwmbran Celtic
0.33
Ammanford AFC is 0.77 points better than Treowen Stars in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Airbus UK
3.10
Trefelin
2.77
Holywell
2.60
Llandudno
2.57
Cambrian & Clydach
2.50
Caerau (Ely)
2.16
Denbigh Town
1.73
Treowen Stars
1.70
Newtown AFC
1.70
Cardiff Draconians
1.67
Buckley Town
1.67
Guilsfield
1.67
Ammanford AFC
1.63
Gresford Athletic
1.57
Rhyl
1.53
Caersws
1.53
Pontypridd Town
1.53
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Trethomas Bluebirds
1.50
Carmarthen Town
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.47
Holyhead Hotspur
1.47
Brickfield Rangers
1.30
Flint Mountain
1.30
Mold Alexandra
1.27
Ruthin Town
1.20
Newport City
1.20
Aberystwyth Town
1.17
Afan Lido
1.07
Ynyshir Albions
0.90
Baglan Dragons
0.84
Cwmbran Celtic
0.83
Ammanford AFC is 0.07 goals worse than Treowen Stars in terms of goals scored per game (1.63 vs 1.70).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Trefelin
0.57
Cambrian & Clydach
0.67
Llandudno
0.73
Airbus UK
0.73
Ammanford AFC
0.87
Caerau (Ely)
1.10
Aberystwyth Town
1.27
Carmarthen Town
1.27
Holywell
1.33
Mold Alexandra
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.57
Cardiff Draconians
1.60
Guilsfield
1.60
Newport City
1.60
Newtown AFC
1.63
Brickfield Rangers
1.63
Holyhead Hotspur
1.63
Caersws
1.70
Pontypridd Town
1.70
Baglan Dragons
1.71
Penrhyncoch
1.77
Rhyl
1.83
Ynyshir Albions
1.87
Afan Lido
1.90
Denbigh Town
1.97
Flint Mountain
2.03
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.07
Treowen Stars
2.10
Ruthin Town
2.13
Buckley Town
2.57
Cwmbran Celtic
2.60
Gresford Athletic
2.90
Ammanford AFC is 1.23 goals better than Treowen Stars in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 2.10).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ammanford AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.47
0.57
0.57
0.19
0.38
vs Stronger (24)
0.42
0.50
0.73
0.64
0.15
0.38
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Treowen Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treowen Stars
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treowen Stars over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treowen Stars over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treowen Stars over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ammanford AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.90
1.57
0.79
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (24)
1.12
0.92
1.73
0.73
0.62
1.08
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.83
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Treowen Stars) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Treowen Stars
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
3.00
0.00
-
-
3.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treowen Stars over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treowen Stars over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treowen Stars over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Wales: FAW Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →