Anagennisi Deryneia and Digenis Morphou face a tightly contested clash, with the model favouring a home win at 38%. The expected total of goals is three, yet the most likely total is two, a 24% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% probability, reflecting the evenly matched form of both sides. Anagennisi Deryneia, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded, while Digenis Morphou away averages 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.8%), Under 6.5 (96.7%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.1%), Under 5.5 (91.8%), Home +2 handicap (82.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (81.9%), and Under 4.5 (81.8%). The draw probability sits at 27% and the away win at 35%. Anagennisi’s recent five-match run of WWDWW, highlighted by a 4-3 win over Spartakos Kitiou, contrasts with Digenis’s DLWLD streak, fresh from a 1-1 draw with AE Zakakiou. This balance makes the outcome uncertain, but the model’s pick remains a home victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Anagennisi Deryneia win
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou win
35.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Anagennisi Deryneia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.73
2.00
1.33
1.27
2.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.65
1.75
2.11
1.22
1.27
2.18
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
1.70
1.83
1.50
1.25
2.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Digenis Morphou
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.30
1.56
1.44
1.79
1.14
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.56
1.39
1.62
1.62
1.50
1.20
vs Weaker (12)
1.83
1.17
1.50
1.25
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Deryneia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
57.3%
Under 2.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.9%
Under 3.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.2%
No
38.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
1-0
6.6%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.3%
0-0
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
Anagennisi Deryneia goals ↓
Digenis Morphou goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
6.3%
5.4%
2.6%
1.0%
1
6.6%
12%
8.2%
4.0%
1.5%
2
5.9%
8.6%
6.3%
3.0%
1.1%
3
3.0%
4.4%
3.2%
1.5%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Anagennisi Deryneia goals (down), columns = Digenis Morphou goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.66
Akritas
2.54
Enosis
2.44
PAEEK
1.59
Halkanoras
1.55
Doxa
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.41
Ermis
1.37
Polemidion
1.37
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.37
Digenis Morphou
1.34
APEA
1.34
Spartakos Kitiou
1.34
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.28
ASIL Lysi
1.07
MEAP Nisou
1.00
Anagennisi Deryneia is 0.03 points better than Digenis Morphou in terms of average points per game (1.37 vs 1.34).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ethnikos Achna
2.62
Akritas
2.50
Enosis
2.40
Halkanoras
1.62
Digenis Morphou
1.55
PAEEK
1.45
Ayia Napa
1.45
Spartakos Kitiou
1.45
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
APEA
1.31
Doxa
1.17
ASIL Lysi
1.10
MEAP Nisou
1.07
Iraklis Yerolakkou
0.93
Anagennisi Deryneia is 0.20 goals worse than Digenis Morphou in terms of goals scored per game (1.35 vs 1.55).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ethnikos Achna
0.70
Akritas
0.73
Enosis
0.76
Iraklis Yerolakkou
1.03
PAEEK
1.07
Doxa
1.21
Spartakos Kitiou
1.24
Halkanoras
1.28
Digenis Morphou
1.31
APEA
1.31
Ermis
1.35
Polemidion
1.35
Anagennisi Deryneia
1.35
Ayia Napa
1.48
ASIL Lysi
1.72
MEAP Nisou
1.72
Anagennisi Deryneia is 0.04 goals worse than Digenis Morphou in terms of goals conceded per game (1.35 vs 1.31).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Anagennisi Deryneia or Draw
64.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Anagennisi Deryneia + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia or Digenis Morphou
73.4%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Anagennisi Deryneia + Digenis Morphou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Digenis Morphou
61.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
27%
35%
covers Draw + Digenis Morphou
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 0.5
Over
78.2%
Under
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 1.5
Over
45.1%
Under
54.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 2.5
Over
19.8%
Under
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 3.5
Over
6.9%
Under
93.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5
Over
76.7%
Under
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5
Over
42.8%
Under
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5
Over
18.1%
Under
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 3.5
Over
6.1%
Under
93.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Anagennisi Deryneia, so a minus line means Anagennisi Deryneia give that many goals of a start and Digenis Morphou receive them. At -1, Anagennisi Deryneia must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Anagennisi Deryneia win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Anagennisi Deryneia)
Anagennisi Deryneia -2
7.5%
Draw -2
11.7%
Digenis Morphou +2
80.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Anagennisi Deryneia)
Anagennisi Deryneia -1
19.1%
Draw -1
19.0%
Digenis Morphou +1
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Anagennisi Deryneia)
Anagennisi Deryneia +1
64.8%
Draw +1
18.1%
Digenis Morphou -1
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Anagennisi Deryneia)
Anagennisi Deryneia +2
82.9%
Draw +2
10.7%
Digenis Morphou -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Anagennisi Deryneia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.73
0.87
0.40
0.27
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
1.00
0.22
0.27
1.09
vs Weaker (10)
0.50
0.80
0.67
0.67
0.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Digenis Morphou
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.28
0.67
0.12
0.88
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.75
0.62
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Deryneia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Anagennisi Deryneia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.00
1.13
0.93
1.00
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.05
1.11
1.00
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (10)
1.10
0.90
1.17
0.83
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Digenis Morphou) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Digenis Morphou
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.67
1.12
0.69
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.28
0.72
1.50
0.75
1.10
0.70
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.75
0.62
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Anagennisi Deryneia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Anagennisi Deryneia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Digenis Morphou over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Cyprus: 2. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 2. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ethnikos Achna
Doxa
Iraklis Yerolakkou
Enosis
Ayia Napa
Halkanoras
Polemidion
APEA
ASIL Lysi
Akritas
Ermis
Spartakos Kitiou
PAEEK
MEAP Nisou