Annagh United, riding a two-game winning streak, face Ards who have just recovered from two consecutive defeats. The model favours a home win, with a 39% chance, a 27% draw probability and 34% for an away triumph. The expected total is 2.9 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.8% probability. Annagh’s home form shows they average 2.12 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opposition, while Ards, playing away, average 1.33 scored and 1.78 conceded. The model’s selections lean heavily on low-scoring outcomes: Under 7.5 (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.3%, edge 6%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (94.7%, edge 6%) and Home under 3.5 goals (93.4%, edge 9%). Other picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%, edge 2%) and Under 6.5 (97.3%). The model’s strongest divergence from market sentiment is the heavy weight on the Under 7.5 selection, reflecting the teams’ modest scoring records and the predicted 1-1 outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annagh United win
39.3%
Avg Implied 54.8% · @ 1.66
Edge
-15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.74
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Bet365
1.62
Draw
27.2%
Avg Implied 24.2% · @ 3.77
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.90
Betano
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Marathonbet
3.74
Bet365
3.70
Ards win
33.5%
Avg Implied 21.1% · @ 4.32
Edge
+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.40
1xBet
4.38
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
Dafabet
4.20
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annagh United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.37
1.88
1.29
1.31
1.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.92
1.62
2.12
1.50
1.60
1.80
vs Weaker (17)
1.41
1.18
1.67
1.11
1.12
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ards
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.30
1.29
1.36
1.81
1.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.18
1.53
1.00
1.25
1.33
1.78
vs Weaker (13)
2.08
1.00
1.67
1.50
2.43
0.57
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
79.3%
@ 1.19+2.3%
Under 1.5
20.7%
@ 3.95-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Under
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
3.94
1xBet
3.94
Betano
3.60
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
54.8%
@ 1.65-1.1%
Under 2.5
45.2%
@ 2.08+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.62
Under
Bet365
2.15
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Betano
2.02
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
32.4%
@ 2.55-3.3%
Under 3.5
67.6%
@ 1.42+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.56
1xBet
2.56
Betano
2.45
Under
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.40
1xBet
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
59.2%
@ 1.64+3.5%
No
40.8%
@ 2.06-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Betano
1.62
No
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.04
Betano
2.02
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.8%@ 7.50+6.9%
2-1
8.7%@ 8.50+3.6%
1-2
8.0%@ 15.00+5.1%
1-0
7.3%@ 8.50+2.1%
0-0
6.8%@ 13.00+3.4%
0-1
6.6%@ 15.00+3.7%
2-0
6.4%@ 9.00+1.5%
2-2
6.0%@ 15.00+3.1%
Annagh United goals ↓
Ards goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
6.6%
5.3%
2.4%
0.8%
1
7.3%
13%
8.0%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.4%
8.7%
6.0%
2.7%
0.9%
3
3.2%
4.4%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annagh United goals (down), columns = Ards goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Newington Youth
2.60
H&W Welders
2.40
Glenavon FC
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Queen's University
2.00
Loughgall
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Moyola Park
1.40
Ards
1.40
Warrenpoint Town
1.40
Ballinamallard United
1.20
Institute
0.80
Dundela
0.60
Strabane Athletic
0.60
Armagh City
0.40
Rathfriland
0.00
Annagh United is 0.60 points better than Ards in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Glenavon FC
2.80
Newington Youth
2.80
Annagh United
2.40
Queen's University
2.20
Loughgall
2.00
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
H&W Welders
1.80
Dundela
1.40
Newry City AFC
1.40
Strabane Athletic
1.20
Moyola Park
1.20
Ballinamallard United
1.00
Rathfriland
1.00
Institute
0.80
Armagh City
0.60
Annagh United is 0.60 goals better than Ards in terms of goals scored per game (2.40 vs 1.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
H&W Welders
0.60
Queen's University
1.00
Newington Youth
1.00
Loughgall
1.40
Moyola Park
1.40
Armagh City
1.40
Glenavon FC
1.60
Ballinamallard United
1.60
Annagh United
1.80
Institute
1.80
Newry City AFC
1.80
Ards
1.80
Warrenpoint Town
1.80
Dundela
2.00
Strabane Athletic
2.00
Rathfriland
3.20
Annagh United and Ards are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.80).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Annagh United or Draw
66.5%
Avg Implied 79.6% · @ 1.15
Edge
-13.1%
39%
27%
34%
covers Annagh United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Annagh United or Ards
72.8%
Avg Implied 76.1% · @ 1.20
Edge
-3.3%
39%
27%
34%
covers Annagh United + Ards
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Draw or Ards
60.7%
Avg Implied 44.3% · @ 2.07
Edge
+16.4%
39%
27%
34%
covers Draw + Ards
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.15
Bet365
2.10
1xBet
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Annagh United over/under 0.5
Over
77.7%
@ 1.10-5.7%
Under
22.3%
@ 5.55+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
5.60
Bet365
5.50
Annagh United over/under 1.5
Over
44.2%
@ 1.67-11.3%
Under
55.8%
@ 2.08+11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.70
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Under
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.02
Annagh United over/under 2.5
Over
19.1%
@ 3.00-11.8%
Under
80.9%
@ 1.34+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
3.00
Under
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Annagh United over/under 3.5
Over
6.6%
@ 5.80-9.4%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.10+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.60
Under
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Ards over/under 0.5
Over
74.6%
@ 1.44+10.6%
Under
25.4%
@ 2.57-10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
Under
Bet365
2.62
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.53
Ards over/under 1.5
Over
39.8%
@ 2.99+8.7%
Under
60.2%
@ 1.35-8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.04
1xBet
3.00
Betano
2.67
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
Ards over/under 2.5
Over
16.0%
@ 7.05+2.8%
Under
84.0%
@ 1.06-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.50
1xBet
6.60
Under
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Ards over/under 3.5
Over
5.1%
@ 13.00-2.2%
Under
94.9%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Under
Bet365
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Annagh United, so a minus line means Annagh United give that many goals of a start and Ards receive them. At -1, Annagh United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Annagh United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Annagh United)
Annagh United -2
7.6%
@ 5.28-9.4%
Draw -2
12.0%
@ 4.72-7.0%
Ards +2
80.3%
@ 1.41+16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
Away
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.37
Handicap -1 (Annagh United)
Annagh United -1
19.7%
@ 2.64-13.5%
Draw -1
19.6%
@ 3.62-4.5%
Ards +1
60.7%
@ 2.06+18.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.66
Bet365
2.62
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Away
Bet365
2.10
Marathonbet
2.01
Handicap +1 (Annagh United)
Annagh United +1
66.5%
@ 1.20-10.8%
Draw +1
17.8%
@ 6.50+3.6%
Ards -1
15.7%
@ 11.00+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Away
Bet365
11.00
Handicap +2 (Annagh United)
Annagh United +2
84.3%
@ 1.05-5.7%
Draw +2
10.0%
@ 15.00+3.7%
Ards -2
5.6%
@ 26.00+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
26.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annagh United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.57
1.00
0.35
0.69
0.85
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.62
1.00
0.25
1.00
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.53
1.00
0.44
0.50
0.62
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ards
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.47
0.50
0.50
0.88
0.44
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.59
0.50
0.50
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.31
0.50
0.50
1.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.29-0.2%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 3.19+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.08
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.38-4.8%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.48+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.39
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.37
Under
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.6%
@ 5.25-5.0%
Under 2.5
87.4%
@ 1.12+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.00
Under
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.1%
@ 1.66-4.8%
Under
48.9%
@ 2.10+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.64
Under
1xBet
2.12
Betano
2.07
Annagh United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
15.9%
@ 4.10-6.5%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.18+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.10
Under
1xBet
1.18
Annagh United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ards over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.3%
@ 2.41+1.8%
Under
59.7%
@ 1.50-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.32
Under
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.47
Ards over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.6%
@ 8.20-1.6%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.03+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.20
Under
1xBet
1.03
Ards over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annagh United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
0.88
0.94
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.00
1.12
1.25
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (17)
0.65
0.65
0.67
0.67
0.62
0.62
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ards) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ards
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.83
0.79
0.86
0.94
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.94
0.50
0.75
0.78
1.11
vs Weaker (13)
1.15
0.69
1.17
1.00
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
37% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annagh United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
@ 1.17+0.0%
Under 0.5
20.2%
@ 4.60-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.70
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
45.8%
@ 1.84-4.2%
Under 1.5
54.2%
@ 1.83+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.80
Under
Betano
1.87
Bet365
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.2%
@ 3.58-5.8%
Under 2.5
79.8%
@ 1.25+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.40
Under
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annagh United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.7%
@ 1.44-6.7%
Under
42.3%
@ 2.60+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.44
Under
1xBet
2.60
Annagh United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
20.5%
@ 3.00-10.0%
Under
79.5%
@ 1.32+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
Under
1xBet
1.32
Annagh United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.3%
@ 8.10-6.0%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Under
1xBet
1.03
Ards over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.8%
@ 1.97+1.9%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.74-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.97
Under
1xBet
1.74
Ards over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.4%
@ 6.00-0.9%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.08+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.00
Under
1xBet
1.08
Ards over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.3%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.7%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.9%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
94.7%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
93.4%
1.10
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
+9.4%
Under 5.5
92.8%
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+4.5%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.4%
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+1.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
87.4%
1.12
1xBet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
-
-
-
+5.0%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.6%
1.08
1xBet
1.08
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
-5.7%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
84.1%
1.18
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
84.0%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-
-
-
-2.8%
Under 4.5
83.6%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+3.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
80.9%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.33
-
-
-
+11.8%
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
1.41
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.37
-
-
-
+16.4%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.25
1xBet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-
-
-
+5.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
1xBet
1.15
-
-
-
+0.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.5%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+10.0%
Over 1.5
79.3%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
-
+2.3%
Home over 0.5 goals
77.7%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.09
-
-
-
-5.7%
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
1.44
1xBet
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.44
-
-
+10.6%
Home or Away
72.8%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-3.3%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.29
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
-
-
-0.2%
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Northern-Ireland: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Championship stats & trends →